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| Pentagon Says Nuclear Missile Is in Grasp for North Korea | Pentagon Says Nuclear Missile Is in Grasp for North Korea |
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| WASHINGTON — A new assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capability conducted by the Pentagon’s intelligence arm has concluded for the first time, with “moderate confidence,” that the country has learned how to make a nuclear weapon small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile. | WASHINGTON — A new assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capability conducted by the Pentagon’s intelligence arm has concluded for the first time, with “moderate confidence,” that the country has learned how to make a nuclear weapon small enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile. |
| The assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has been distributed to senior administration officials and members of Congress, cautions that the weapon’s “reliability will be low,” apparently a reference to the North’s difficulty in developing accurate missiles or, perhaps, to the huge technical challenges of designing a warhead that can survive the rigors of flight and detonate on a specific target. | The assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has been distributed to senior administration officials and members of Congress, cautions that the weapon’s “reliability will be low,” apparently a reference to the North’s difficulty in developing accurate missiles or, perhaps, to the huge technical challenges of designing a warhead that can survive the rigors of flight and detonate on a specific target. |
| It is unclear whether other American intelligence agencies agree with the assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has primary responsibility for monitoring the missile capabilities of adversary nations. In the case of Iraq, a decade ago, the agency was among those that argued most vociferously that Saddam Hussein had nuclear weapons. | It is unclear whether other American intelligence agencies agree with the assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has primary responsibility for monitoring the missile capabilities of adversary nations. In the case of Iraq, a decade ago, the agency was among those that argued most vociferously that Saddam Hussein had nuclear weapons. |
| Outside experts said that the report’s conclusions helped explain why the administration announced last month that it was bolstering long-range antimissile defenses in Alaska and California, designed to protect the West Coast, and was rushing another antimissile system, originally not intended for deployment until 2015, to Guam. | Outside experts said that the report’s conclusions helped explain why the administration announced last month that it was bolstering long-range antimissile defenses in Alaska and California, designed to protect the West Coast, and was rushing another antimissile system, originally not intended for deployment until 2015, to Guam. |
| The existence of the assessment was disclosed Thursday by Representative Doug Lamborn, a Colorado Republican, three hours into a budget hearing of the House Armed Services Committee with Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey. General Dempsey declined to comment because of classification issues. The actual wording in the report was obtained by The New York Times. | |
| The congressman’s spokeswoman, Catherine Mortensen, said the material he quoted during the hearing was unclassified. Pentagon officials said later that, while the report remained classified, the one-paragraph finding had been declassified but had not previously been released. | The congressman’s spokeswoman, Catherine Mortensen, said the material he quoted during the hearing was unclassified. Pentagon officials said later that, while the report remained classified, the one-paragraph finding had been declassified but had not previously been released. |
| The report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency last month was titled “Dynamic Threat Assessment 8099: North Korea Nuclear Weapons Program." Its executive summary reads: “D.I.A. assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles; however the reliability will be low.” | The report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency last month was titled “Dynamic Threat Assessment 8099: North Korea Nuclear Weapons Program." Its executive summary reads: “D.I.A. assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles; however the reliability will be low.” |
| At another Congressional hearing Thursday morning, James R. Clapper, the director of national intelligence, sought to tamp down fears that the North Korean rhetoric could lead to an armed clash with the United States, South Korea and regional allies. | At another Congressional hearing Thursday morning, James R. Clapper, the director of national intelligence, sought to tamp down fears that the North Korean rhetoric could lead to an armed clash with the United States, South Korea and regional allies. |
| Mr. Clapper said, for instance, that in his personal experience, two other confrontations with the North — the seizure of the American research ship Pueblo in 1968 and the death of two American soldiers in a tree-cutting episode in a border area in 1976 — stoked tensions that were much greater between the two countries. | Mr. Clapper said, for instance, that in his personal experience, two other confrontations with the North — the seizure of the American research ship Pueblo in 1968 and the death of two American soldiers in a tree-cutting episode in a border area in 1976 — stoked tensions that were much greater between the two countries. |
| North Korea has now conducted three nuclear tests, including one earlier this year, and shot a ballistic missile as far as the Philippines in December. American and South Korean intelligence agencies believe that another test — perhaps of a midrange missile called the Musadan that can reach Japan, South Korea and almost as far as Guam — may be conducted in the coming days, to celebrate the birth of Kim Il-sung, the country’s founder. At the Pentagon, there is particular concern about another missile, yet untested, called the KN-08, which may have significantly longer range. | North Korea has now conducted three nuclear tests, including one earlier this year, and shot a ballistic missile as far as the Philippines in December. American and South Korean intelligence agencies believe that another test — perhaps of a midrange missile called the Musadan that can reach Japan, South Korea and almost as far as Guam — may be conducted in the coming days, to celebrate the birth of Kim Il-sung, the country’s founder. At the Pentagon, there is particular concern about another missile, yet untested, called the KN-08, which may have significantly longer range. |
| “They now have a deliverable warhead,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department official now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “They don’t have anything that could reach American bases beyond Japan.” | “They now have a deliverable warhead,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department official now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “They don’t have anything that could reach American bases beyond Japan.” |
| But former Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates predicted in Beijing two years ago that North Korea could gain that capability in a few years. That is why the missile tests being conducted by the North, which had a series of spectacular missile failures before its December success, are being watched so intently. | But former Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates predicted in Beijing two years ago that North Korea could gain that capability in a few years. That is why the missile tests being conducted by the North, which had a series of spectacular missile failures before its December success, are being watched so intently. |
| “North Korea has already demonstrated capabilities that threaten the United States and the security environment in East Asia,” Mr. Clapper told the House Intelligence Committee. | “North Korea has already demonstrated capabilities that threaten the United States and the security environment in East Asia,” Mr. Clapper told the House Intelligence Committee. |
| He added that “we believe Pyongyang has already taken initial steps” toward fielding what he called a “road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile.” He appeared to be referring to the KN-08, provided to North Korea by a Russian company, and based on the design of a Russian submarine-launched nuclear missile. | He added that “we believe Pyongyang has already taken initial steps” toward fielding what he called a “road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile.” He appeared to be referring to the KN-08, provided to North Korea by a Russian company, and based on the design of a Russian submarine-launched nuclear missile. |
| Mr. Clapper referred to “extremely belligerent, aggressive public rhetoric towards the United States and South Korea,” by the country’s young president, Kim Jung-un. And he made it clear that getting inside Mr. Kim’s head, understanding his goals, had been particularly frustrating. | Mr. Clapper referred to “extremely belligerent, aggressive public rhetoric towards the United States and South Korea,” by the country’s young president, Kim Jung-un. And he made it clear that getting inside Mr. Kim’s head, understanding his goals, had been particularly frustrating. |
| He suggested that while Mr. Kim’s grandfather and father had clear motives — to periodically threaten the world with nuclear crises, then wait to get paid in cash, food or equipment to lower the rhetoric — the younger Mr. Kim intended to demonstrate both to North Koreans and to the international community that North Korea deserves respect as nuclear power. | He suggested that while Mr. Kim’s grandfather and father had clear motives — to periodically threaten the world with nuclear crises, then wait to get paid in cash, food or equipment to lower the rhetoric — the younger Mr. Kim intended to demonstrate both to North Koreans and to the international community that North Korea deserves respect as nuclear power. |
| “His primary objective is to consolidate, affirm his power,” Mr. Clapper told the House committee, adding that “the belligerent rhetoric of late, I think, is designed for both an internal and an external audience.” | “His primary objective is to consolidate, affirm his power,” Mr. Clapper told the House committee, adding that “the belligerent rhetoric of late, I think, is designed for both an internal and an external audience.” |
| Asked if the North Korean leader had an “endgame,” Mr. Clapper said, “I don’t think, really, he has much of an endgame other than to somehow elicit recognition from the world and specifically, most importantly, the United States, of North Korea as a rival on an international scene, as a nuclear power, and that that entitles him to negotiation and to accommodation, and presumably for aid.” | Asked if the North Korean leader had an “endgame,” Mr. Clapper said, “I don’t think, really, he has much of an endgame other than to somehow elicit recognition from the world and specifically, most importantly, the United States, of North Korea as a rival on an international scene, as a nuclear power, and that that entitles him to negotiation and to accommodation, and presumably for aid.” |
| Other officials have said, in background interviews, that Mr. Kim is trying to get North Korea into the same position as Pakistan: an acknowledged nuclear power that the West has given up hopes of disarming. | Other officials have said, in background interviews, that Mr. Kim is trying to get North Korea into the same position as Pakistan: an acknowledged nuclear power that the West has given up hopes of disarming. |
| Mr. Clapper appeared with the heads of several other intelligence agencies, including Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn of the Defense Intelligence Agency; the F.B.I. director, Robert S. Mueller III; and the C.I.A. director, John O. Brennan, to present their annual assessment of the threats facing the nation. The same officials briefed the Senate Intelligence Committee last month. | Mr. Clapper appeared with the heads of several other intelligence agencies, including Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn of the Defense Intelligence Agency; the F.B.I. director, Robert S. Mueller III; and the C.I.A. director, John O. Brennan, to present their annual assessment of the threats facing the nation. The same officials briefed the Senate Intelligence Committee last month. |
| Even as they sought to explain the North Korean leader’s recent bellicose threats, which have prompted American and South Korean troops to increase alert levels, Mr. Clapper and other top intelligence officials acknowledged that United States spy agencies do not know much about Mr. Kim. | Even as they sought to explain the North Korean leader’s recent bellicose threats, which have prompted American and South Korean troops to increase alert levels, Mr. Clapper and other top intelligence officials acknowledged that United States spy agencies do not know much about Mr. Kim. |
| “Kim Jong-un has not been in power all that long, so we don’t have an extended track record for him like we did with his father and grandfather,” Mr. Brennan said. “That’s why we are watching this very closely and to see whether or not what he is doing is consistent with past patterns of North Korean behavior.” | “Kim Jong-un has not been in power all that long, so we don’t have an extended track record for him like we did with his father and grandfather,” Mr. Brennan said. “That’s why we are watching this very closely and to see whether or not what he is doing is consistent with past patterns of North Korean behavior.” |
| Mr. Clapper added that with such little information on the North’s new leader, “there’s no telling how he’s going to behave.” | Mr. Clapper added that with such little information on the North’s new leader, “there’s no telling how he’s going to behave.” |
| “He impresses me as impetuous, not as inhibited as his father became about taking aggressive action,” he added. “The pattern with his father was to be provocative and then to sort of back off. We haven’t seen that yet with Kim Un.” | “He impresses me as impetuous, not as inhibited as his father became about taking aggressive action,” he added. “The pattern with his father was to be provocative and then to sort of back off. We haven’t seen that yet with Kim Un.” |
| As for what might change the North’s belligerent posture, Mr. Clapper pointed to the new leadership in China. “I think probably if anyone has real leverage over the North Koreans, it is China,” Mr. Clapper said. | As for what might change the North’s belligerent posture, Mr. Clapper pointed to the new leadership in China. “I think probably if anyone has real leverage over the North Koreans, it is China,” Mr. Clapper said. |