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| Nigerian opposition candidate leads in election as governing party cries foul | Nigerian opposition candidate leads in election as governing party cries foul |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Nigerian opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari is leading by more than 2m votes as the country awaits the final results of its general election, but the governing party is already crying foul. | |
| On Tuesday, half the 36 states in Nigeria had declared returns in the contest between President Goodluck Jonathan and former military ruler Buhari, in an election watched closely in Africa and around the world. | |
| Buhari, a 72-year-old former army general, has campaigned as a born-again democrat intent on cleaning up the corrupt politics of the continent’s biggest economy and most populous nation. | Buhari, a 72-year-old former army general, has campaigned as a born-again democrat intent on cleaning up the corrupt politics of the continent’s biggest economy and most populous nation. |
| Related: Nigeria faces an acid test, whatever the result of this election | Max Siollun | Related: Nigeria faces an acid test, whatever the result of this election | Max Siollun |
| He built an early lead on Monday in northern states dominated by the mainly Muslim Hausa-Fulani ethnic group, of which he is a member. Voter turnout was consistently higher in his strongholds than in Jonathan’s and he won by bigger margins than he achieved at the last election in 2011. | |
| In Kano, the state containing Nigeria’s second biggest city, Buhari defeated Jonathan by nearly 1.7m votes, compared with about 1m four years ago. In Kaduna, where the two were virtually tied in 2011, Buhari won by 650,000 votes. | |
| So far, Buhari and his All Progressives Congress (APC) have won 10 states, with Jonathan, of the Peoples Democratic party (PDP), taking eight plus the territory containing the capital, Abuja. Buhari stands on 8.5m votes compared with Jonathan’s 6.48m. | |
| New African magazine said the results from 18 states so far, and its projections from the 18 remaining, suggest that Buhari has taken “a near unassailable lead” over Jonathan. “Turnout in strongly PDP Imo, in the south-east, halved from 84% in 2011 to 42% this year, while turnout in Abia, also in the south-east, was a mere 30% – 48 points shy of 2011’s total,” it added. | New African magazine said the results from 18 states so far, and its projections from the 18 remaining, suggest that Buhari has taken “a near unassailable lead” over Jonathan. “Turnout in strongly PDP Imo, in the south-east, halved from 84% in 2011 to 42% this year, while turnout in Abia, also in the south-east, was a mere 30% – 48 points shy of 2011’s total,” it added. |
| Even if Jonathan manages to replicate the vast scale, in absolute terms, of his 2011 victory in five of the six south-south states yet to declare results, he is unlikely to overcome Buhari’s lead in other parts of the country, according to New African projections. | Even if Jonathan manages to replicate the vast scale, in absolute terms, of his 2011 victory in five of the six south-south states yet to declare results, he is unlikely to overcome Buhari’s lead in other parts of the country, according to New African projections. |
| The president, facing the prospect of becoming the first Nigerian incumbent to lose an election, will be hoping to claw back ground in his home region, the southern, oil-producing Niger Delta. Results from the commercial capital, Lagos, are also still to come. | |
| The winning presidential candidate needs not only the most votes, but at least 25% support in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and Abuja to avoid a runoff. | |
| The PDP, which has dominated the west African nation’s politics since the end of military rule in 1999, said the early returns were no cause for concern. “The [PDP] is unperturbed by the results of the elections so far,” spokesman Olisa Metuh said. “The results from [PDP] strongholds will overwhelm those from the [north] and give it a clean and clear victory at the end of the day.” | The PDP, which has dominated the west African nation’s politics since the end of military rule in 1999, said the early returns were no cause for concern. “The [PDP] is unperturbed by the results of the elections so far,” spokesman Olisa Metuh said. “The results from [PDP] strongholds will overwhelm those from the [north] and give it a clean and clear victory at the end of the day.” |
| But other voices in the party alleged irregularities and raised doubts over whether it would accept defeat. Wale Oladipo, the PDP national secretary, said its agents on the ground found evidence of “massive underage voting” as well as violence and intimidation. “I expect INEC [the electoral commission] to address this issue before rushing to announce the vote,” he told Channels television. | But other voices in the party alleged irregularities and raised doubts over whether it would accept defeat. Wale Oladipo, the PDP national secretary, said its agents on the ground found evidence of “massive underage voting” as well as violence and intimidation. “I expect INEC [the electoral commission] to address this issue before rushing to announce the vote,” he told Channels television. |
| Femi Fani-Kayode, spokesman for the PDP presidential campaign, has warned of the result: “If it does not reflect the will of the Nigerian people, we shall resist it with everything that is available to us. That you can rest assured of.” | Femi Fani-Kayode, spokesman for the PDP presidential campaign, has warned of the result: “If it does not reflect the will of the Nigerian people, we shall resist it with everything that is available to us. That you can rest assured of.” |
| On Monday, the US and Britain warned against any interference with the count. “So far, we have seen no evidence of systemic manipulation of the process,” the US secretary of state, John Kerry, and his British counterpart, Philip Hammond, said in a joint statement. “But there are disturbing indications that the collation process – where the votes are finally counted – may be subject to deliberate political interference.” | On Monday, the US and Britain warned against any interference with the count. “So far, we have seen no evidence of systemic manipulation of the process,” the US secretary of state, John Kerry, and his British counterpart, Philip Hammond, said in a joint statement. “But there are disturbing indications that the collation process – where the votes are finally counted – may be subject to deliberate political interference.” |
| Results from the rest of the country were expected from 10am local time on Tuesday but were running late. The logistics of transporting results from around the country to the national nerve centre Abuja have slowed the process. Prof Akin Oyebode, an academic, noted that Nigeria lacks high-speed trains while flights are often delayed. “We have to remember we are a third-world country, not a first-world country,” he told Channels. | Results from the rest of the country were expected from 10am local time on Tuesday but were running late. The logistics of transporting results from around the country to the national nerve centre Abuja have slowed the process. Prof Akin Oyebode, an academic, noted that Nigeria lacks high-speed trains while flights are often delayed. “We have to remember we are a third-world country, not a first-world country,” he told Channels. |
| Buhari, who ruled a military government in the mid-1980s, is making his fourth run at the presidency since 1999. His chances have been boosted by frustration over endemic corruption, criticism over Jonathan’s handling of Boko Haram’s six-year Islamist uprising and a better organised opposition. | Buhari, who ruled a military government in the mid-1980s, is making his fourth run at the presidency since 1999. His chances have been boosted by frustration over endemic corruption, criticism over Jonathan’s handling of Boko Haram’s six-year Islamist uprising and a better organised opposition. |
| International observers gave broadly positive reactions to the conduct of the vote, despite late delivery of election materials and technical glitches with new voter ID card readers in some areas. Nigeria’s Transition Monitoring Group, which had observers across the country, said: “These issues did not systematically disadvantage any candidate or party.” | International observers gave broadly positive reactions to the conduct of the vote, despite late delivery of election materials and technical glitches with new voter ID card readers in some areas. Nigeria’s Transition Monitoring Group, which had observers across the country, said: “These issues did not systematically disadvantage any candidate or party.” |
| But fears persisit that the election, thought to be the most expensive in African history, will be polarising and that the losing side will not accept the outcome. After Buhari lost to Jonathan in 2011, 800 people died and 65,000 were forced from their homes by riots in the north. |