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Why the F-word matters in Scottish politics | Why the F-word matters in Scottish politics |
(about 3 hours later) | |
F is for framework. Fiscal framework. But what is it and why does it matter so much? | F is for framework. Fiscal framework. But what is it and why does it matter so much? |
Is this about new powers? | |
Yes. Holyrood is due to take on new tax and welfare powers when the Scotland Bill 2016 becomes law. | |
The bill includes the extra devolution recommended by the Smith Commission after the 'No' vote in the independence referendum. | The bill includes the extra devolution recommended by the Smith Commission after the 'No' vote in the independence referendum. |
The financial arrangements underpinning these new powers are what is known as the fiscal framework. | The financial arrangements underpinning these new powers are what is known as the fiscal framework. |
Why is it important? | |
There are two reasons. Firstly, no fiscal framework - no new powers. You can't have one without the other. | |
If the UK and Scottish governments can't reach agreement, SNP ministers have made clear they will use their Holyrood majority to block the Scotland Bill. | If the UK and Scottish governments can't reach agreement, SNP ministers have made clear they will use their Holyrood majority to block the Scotland Bill. |
Secondly, the framework will help determine the amount of money the Scottish government receives from the Treasury in future years. | Secondly, the framework will help determine the amount of money the Scottish government receives from the Treasury in future years. |
No wonder they're haggling. The Scottish government has an interest in maximising its share of UK resources. The Treasury has an interest in minimising it. | No wonder they're haggling. The Scottish government has an interest in maximising its share of UK resources. The Treasury has an interest in minimising it. |
Formally, both governments are committed to achieving a deal that is fair to both Scotland and the rest of the UK. | Formally, both governments are committed to achieving a deal that is fair to both Scotland and the rest of the UK. |
Is a fair deal possible? | Is a fair deal possible? |
It's tricky. The Smith commission included an important principle - that there should be "no detriment" to either side. | It's tricky. The Smith commission included an important principle - that there should be "no detriment" to either side. |
In other words, neither the Scottish nor UK government should be worse off financially as a result of the devolution of extra powers. | In other words, neither the Scottish nor UK government should be worse off financially as a result of the devolution of extra powers. |
There are two parts to this. "No detriment" as a result of the decision to devolve a power and "no detriment" for either government as a knock on effect of the policy decisions made by the other. | There are two parts to this. "No detriment" as a result of the decision to devolve a power and "no detriment" for either government as a knock on effect of the policy decisions made by the other. |
Researchers for the Institute for Fiscal Studies concluded that this was impossible to achieve. | Researchers for the Institute for Fiscal Studies concluded that this was impossible to achieve. |
It hasn't stopped the Treasury and the Scottish government trying to find a solution. | It hasn't stopped the Treasury and the Scottish government trying to find a solution. |
What is the most contentious issue? | What is the most contentious issue? |
How to adjust Holyrood's block grant from the Treasury to take into account the new tax and spending responsibilities - that's the biggie! | How to adjust Holyrood's block grant from the Treasury to take into account the new tax and spending responsibilities - that's the biggie! |
The more money raised directly in Scotland, the less the devolved government needs from UK resources (which include Scottish contributions). | The more money raised directly in Scotland, the less the devolved government needs from UK resources (which include Scottish contributions). |
So, when Holyrood's tax powers grow, its grant from the Treasury is cut accordingly. | So, when Holyrood's tax powers grow, its grant from the Treasury is cut accordingly. |
This is achieved by tweaking the Barnett formula, which determines Scotland's share of UK spending. | This is achieved by tweaking the Barnett formula, which determines Scotland's share of UK spending. |
That's relatively straightforward in the first year. The amount of tax that's expected to be generated in Scotland is deducted from the block grant. | That's relatively straightforward in the first year. The amount of tax that's expected to be generated in Scotland is deducted from the block grant. |
For future years, a system of indexation is needed to reflect changing economic circumstances. | For future years, a system of indexation is needed to reflect changing economic circumstances. |
Finding indexation arrangements that both sides are happy with is easier said than done. | Finding indexation arrangements that both sides are happy with is easier said than done. |
What are the indexation options? | What are the indexation options? |
There are three main options: | There are three main options: |
Indexed deduction - the cut to the Scottish block grant is adjusted by the percentage change in income tax revenues in the rest of the UK | Indexed deduction - the cut to the Scottish block grant is adjusted by the percentage change in income tax revenues in the rest of the UK |
Per capita indexed deduction - a version of indexed deduction that protects Scotland from the effects of having slower population growth than the rest of the UK | Per capita indexed deduction - a version of indexed deduction that protects Scotland from the effects of having slower population growth than the rest of the UK |
Levels adjustment - the cut to the Scottish block grant is adjusted by Scotland's population share of any change in cash raised in income tax in the rest of the UK | Levels adjustment - the cut to the Scottish block grant is adjusted by Scotland's population share of any change in cash raised in income tax in the rest of the UK |
It is understood the UK government favours a form of levels adjustment, while the Scottish government prefers per capita indexed deduction. | It is understood the UK government favours a form of levels adjustment, while the Scottish government prefers per capita indexed deduction. |
Academics disagree about which model would produce the "fairest" outcome. | Academics disagree about which model would produce the "fairest" outcome. |
Articles by Prof Jim Gallagher and Prof Anton Muscatelli give a flavour of the debate. | Articles by Prof Jim Gallagher and Prof Anton Muscatelli give a flavour of the debate. |
What else is at stake? | What else is at stake? |
What is the timescale? | What is the timescale? |
The two governments had hoped to agree a deal in Autumn 2015. That deadline came and went. | The two governments had hoped to agree a deal in Autumn 2015. That deadline came and went. |
The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, anticipated a deal being struck in February of 2016. | The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, anticipated a deal being struck in February of 2016. |
The schedule of talks has intensified since the New Year. | The schedule of talks has intensified since the New Year. |
The chief secretary to the Treasury, Greg Hands and the Scottish finance secretary, John Swinney, held their ninth round of talks on February 8th. | The chief secretary to the Treasury, Greg Hands and the Scottish finance secretary, John Swinney, held their ninth round of talks on February 8th. |
But time is running out. | But time is running out. |
The Scottish Parliament breaks for the election campaign on 23 March. | The Scottish Parliament breaks for the election campaign on 23 March. |
The convenor of Holyrood's devolution committee, Bruce Crawford, has informed both governments of the time MSPs will need to consider and any agreement. | The convenor of Holyrood's devolution committee, Bruce Crawford, has informed both governments of the time MSPs will need to consider and any agreement. |
The deputy first minister, John Swinney, has talked of a 12 February deadline. | The deputy first minister, John Swinney, has talked of a 12 February deadline. |
The Scottish secretary, David Mundell, has already pushed back Lords consideration of the Scotland bill in anticipation of talks taking longer. | The Scottish secretary, David Mundell, has already pushed back Lords consideration of the Scotland bill in anticipation of talks taking longer. |
What if there is no deal before the election? | What if there is no deal before the election? |
Standby for a big election row, with the SNP and Conservatives blaming each other for the failure and Labour blaming them both. | Standby for a big election row, with the SNP and Conservatives blaming each other for the failure and Labour blaming them both. |
The Tories will be accused of trying to short-change Scotland. The SNP will be accused of running scared of additional responsibility. | The Tories will be accused of trying to short-change Scotland. The SNP will be accused of running scared of additional responsibility. |
The deputy first minister, John Swinney, has foreshadowed this scenario by announcing his intention to publish "all the key papers" from the fiscal framework talks. | The deputy first minister, John Swinney, has foreshadowed this scenario by announcing his intention to publish "all the key papers" from the fiscal framework talks. |
Who would have thought a fiscal framework could cause so much fuss? | Who would have thought a fiscal framework could cause so much fuss? |
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