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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/may/18/markets-us-rate-hike-talk-uk-unemployment-report-business-live
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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| US Fed says June hike possible; UK employment hits record high - as it happened | US Fed says June hike possible; UK employment hits record high - as it happened |
| (4 months later) | |
| 9.08pm BST | 9.08pm BST |
| 21:08 | 21:08 |
| Closing summary: Fed puts June hike in play | Closing summary: Fed puts June hike in play |
| And finally..... here’s my colleage Jana Kasperkevic on today’s Fed minutes: | And finally..... here’s my colleage Jana Kasperkevic on today’s Fed minutes: |
| The US Federal Reserve could rase interest rates as early as June, according to minutes from its April meeting, with Fed members arguing the risks of a slowdown in the global economy have receded. | The US Federal Reserve could rase interest rates as early as June, according to minutes from its April meeting, with Fed members arguing the risks of a slowdown in the global economy have receded. |
| Yet even as the members have become more bullish about US economic resilience, they remained cautious about raising rates. They voted 11-1 to keep interest rates unchanged for a third time this year at the April meeting. | Yet even as the members have become more bullish about US economic resilience, they remained cautious about raising rates. They voted 11-1 to keep interest rates unchanged for a third time this year at the April meeting. |
| The minutes released on Wednesday listed concerns about the slowing growth ofUS economy in the first quarter, Britain’s potential exit from the EU and lingering uncertainty over China’s economy. | The minutes released on Wednesday listed concerns about the slowing growth ofUS economy in the first quarter, Britain’s potential exit from the EU and lingering uncertainty over China’s economy. |
| “Since the March FOMC [Federal Open Markets Committee] meeting, foreign financial market conditions eased, on net, and overall risk sentiment appeared to have improved,” the Fed noted in its minutes. | “Since the March FOMC [Federal Open Markets Committee] meeting, foreign financial market conditions eased, on net, and overall risk sentiment appeared to have improved,” the Fed noted in its minutes. |
| Yet concerns about potential risks of a slowing US economy and global markets remain. | Yet concerns about potential risks of a slowing US economy and global markets remain. |
| Here’s the full story: | Here’s the full story: |
| And with that, goodnight and thanks for reading... GW | And with that, goodnight and thanks for reading... GW |
| 9.06pm BST | 9.06pm BST |
| 21:06 | 21:06 |
| The New York stock market has closed for the night, pretty much where they started it: | The New York stock market has closed for the night, pretty much where they started it: |
| The Dow Jones index has only shed 5 points, or 0.03%, at 17,524. | The Dow Jones index has only shed 5 points, or 0.03%, at 17,524. |
| The broader S&P 500 index closed flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index finished 0.5% higher. | The broader S&P 500 index closed flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index finished 0.5% higher. |
| Basically, the selloff sparked by the Fed minutes did wipe out early gains, but didn’t prompt a rout. | Basically, the selloff sparked by the Fed minutes did wipe out early gains, but didn’t prompt a rout. |
| a baby born right now would have no idea that the 2 PM minutes sent the stock market red. | a baby born right now would have no idea that the 2 PM minutes sent the stock market red. |
| 8.46pm BST | 8.46pm BST |
| 20:46 | 20:46 |
| Tariq Zahir, crude oil trader and managing partner at Tyche Capital Advisors, reckons the US dollar could continue to strengthen. | Tariq Zahir, crude oil trader and managing partner at Tyche Capital Advisors, reckons the US dollar could continue to strengthen. |
| He says: | He says: |
| “We think people really had a June rate hike off the table. | “We think people really had a June rate hike off the table. |
| “But with the Fed disputing that, we could have a much stronger dollar from here, which is typically bearish for oil and other commodities.” | “But with the Fed disputing that, we could have a much stronger dollar from here, which is typically bearish for oil and other commodities.” |
| This afternoon’s dollar rally has already driven down commodity prices, and sunk oil’s latest attempt to hit the $50/barrel mark for the first time this year. | This afternoon’s dollar rally has already driven down commodity prices, and sunk oil’s latest attempt to hit the $50/barrel mark for the first time this year. |
| Brent crude is ending the day down 1.5% at $48.55. | Brent crude is ending the day down 1.5% at $48.55. |
| 8.33pm BST | 8.33pm BST |
| 20:33 | 20:33 |
| Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago, has got the Fed’s message, telling Reuters that: | Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago, has got the Fed’s message, telling Reuters that: |
| “They are ready to pull the trigger on a rate increase in June.” | “They are ready to pull the trigger on a rate increase in June.” |
| 8.07pm BST | 8.07pm BST |
| 20:07 | 20:07 |
| Poor Janet Yellen.... As Fed chair, she’s going to have to keep a close eye on the nitty-gritty of Britain’s EU referendum battle, points out the FT’s Mehreen Khan. | Poor Janet Yellen.... As Fed chair, she’s going to have to keep a close eye on the nitty-gritty of Britain’s EU referendum battle, points out the FT’s Mehreen Khan. |
| Fed's June meeting is a week before Brexit referendum. Yellen to become discerning observer of online v phone polls debate | Fed's June meeting is a week before Brexit referendum. Yellen to become discerning observer of online v phone polls debate |
| 8.04pm BST | 8.04pm BST |
| 20:04 | 20:04 |
| Wall Street now reckons there’s a 25% chance of a June rate hike - up from below 5% last week: | Wall Street now reckons there’s a 25% chance of a June rate hike - up from below 5% last week: |
| Futures market pins greater than 1-in-4 chance of June rate rise. https://t.co/1LmoraN7YY pic.twitter.com/VeWw1rl83t | Futures market pins greater than 1-in-4 chance of June rate rise. https://t.co/1LmoraN7YY pic.twitter.com/VeWw1rl83t |
| 7.37pm BST | 7.37pm BST |
| 19:37 | 19:37 |
| Fed: Brexit and China are threats | Fed: Brexit and China are threats |
| The Federal Reserve is pretty clear that Britain’s EU referendum is a potential shock to the world economy, as is China’s slowdown. | The Federal Reserve is pretty clear that Britain’s EU referendum is a potential shock to the world economy, as is China’s slowdown. |
| The minutes state that: | The minutes state that: |
| [Many policymakers] indicated that they continued to see downside risks to the outlook either because of concerns that the recent slowdown in domestic spending might persist or because of remaining concerns about the global economic and financial outlook. | [Many policymakers] indicated that they continued to see downside risks to the outlook either because of concerns that the recent slowdown in domestic spending might persist or because of remaining concerns about the global economic and financial outlook. |
| Some participants noted that global financial markets could be sensitive to the upcoming British referendum on membership in the European Union or to unanticipated developments associated with China’s management of its exchange rate.” | Some participants noted that global financial markets could be sensitive to the upcoming British referendum on membership in the European Union or to unanticipated developments associated with China’s management of its exchange rate.” |
| The next Fed meeting takes place just a week before Britain goes to the polls in a vote that will determine its place in, or our, of the European Union. So the Fed might well judge it too risky to raise borrowing costs after all (as Joseph Lake, US analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, suggested earlier today) | The next Fed meeting takes place just a week before Britain goes to the polls in a vote that will determine its place in, or our, of the European Union. So the Fed might well judge it too risky to raise borrowing costs after all (as Joseph Lake, US analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, suggested earlier today) |
| 7.29pm BST | 7.29pm BST |
| 19:29 | 19:29 |
| The yield, or interest rates, on US government bonds has spiked sharply since the minutes were released. | The yield, or interest rates, on US government bonds has spiked sharply since the minutes were released. |
| That’s another sign that investors are now expecting American interest rates to rise earlier than before. | That’s another sign that investors are now expecting American interest rates to rise earlier than before. |
| For those without a Bloomberg, this is what the 10yr UST made of the lead-up and release of the FOMC minutes pic.twitter.com/Ud5JSQvA7Q | For those without a Bloomberg, this is what the 10yr UST made of the lead-up and release of the FOMC minutes pic.twitter.com/Ud5JSQvA7Q |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.38pm BST | at 7.38pm BST |
| 7.23pm BST | 7.23pm BST |
| 19:23 | 19:23 |
| Jeremy Cook, chief economist at foreign exchange firm World First, reckons the Federal Reserve are trying to signal to the market.... | Jeremy Cook, chief economist at foreign exchange firm World First, reckons the Federal Reserve are trying to signal to the market.... |
| Fed wiggles big stick to beat overt dovishness out of market. Would still be surprised if it was June | Fed wiggles big stick to beat overt dovishness out of market. Would still be surprised if it was June |
| Ironically, by pushing up the dollar, markets create the kind of tighter monetary conditions that allow the Fed to hold off actually raising rates at all..... | Ironically, by pushing up the dollar, markets create the kind of tighter monetary conditions that allow the Fed to hold off actually raising rates at all..... |
| 7.19pm BST | 7.19pm BST |
| 19:19 | 19:19 |
| US rate hike odds are spiking | US rate hike odds are spiking |
| Investors are rapidly repricing their expectations for US interest rate moves this year. | Investors are rapidly repricing their expectations for US interest rate moves this year. |
| There’s now a greater expectation that borrowing costs could rise during 2016, based on market moves in the last 20 minutes. | There’s now a greater expectation that borrowing costs could rise during 2016, based on market moves in the last 20 minutes. |
| However, they still don’t think that a June hike is terribly likely, despite the Fed saying that many policymakers think it could be justified if the data improves. | However, they still don’t think that a June hike is terribly likely, despite the Fed saying that many policymakers think it could be justified if the data improves. |
| CNBC has the details: | CNBC has the details: |
| More here: Rate hike odds spike across the board after Fed minutes | More here: Rate hike odds spike across the board after Fed minutes |
| 7.16pm BST | 7.16pm BST |
| 19:16 | 19:16 |
| Fed sends dollar up, but stocks slide | Fed sends dollar up, but stocks slide |
| Shares on Wall Street have erased all their gains after the Fed minutes revealed that a June rate hike is certainly possible. | Shares on Wall Street have erased all their gains after the Fed minutes revealed that a June rate hike is certainly possible. |
| U.S. stocks erase gains after Fed minutes while banks hold rally https://t.co/KFbngvsyX3 pic.twitter.com/LTq4KelesI | U.S. stocks erase gains after Fed minutes while banks hold rally https://t.co/KFbngvsyX3 pic.twitter.com/LTq4KelesI |
| And the dollar is soaring... hitting a nine-week high against the Swiss franc and a three-week high against the yen. | And the dollar is soaring... hitting a nine-week high against the Swiss franc and a three-week high against the yen. |