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| Brexit could trigger defence review, says leading thinktank Brexit could trigger defence review, says leading thinktank | |
| (6 months later) | |
| A vote to leave the EU in the UK referendum could trigger a defence and security review and signal as significant a shift in national strategy as Britain’s withdrawal from bases east of Suez in the late 1960s, a leading thinktank has said. | A vote to leave the EU in the UK referendum could trigger a defence and security review and signal as significant a shift in national strategy as Britain’s withdrawal from bases east of Suez in the late 1960s, a leading thinktank has said. |
| Plans for defence spending over the next decade might also have to be revised, especially if projected GDP growth failed to materialise in the aftermath of a vote for Brexit, it said. | Plans for defence spending over the next decade might also have to be revised, especially if projected GDP growth failed to materialise in the aftermath of a vote for Brexit, it said. |
| However, there could be pressures on Britain to redouble its commitment to European defence, “in part to address concerns that an exit from the EU would risk undermining confidence in Nato, and in part because the UK’s commitment to European defence would represent one of its few bargaining chips as it entered a period of tough negotiations with its EU neighbours”, according to Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general of RUSI and author of the report. | However, there could be pressures on Britain to redouble its commitment to European defence, “in part to address concerns that an exit from the EU would risk undermining confidence in Nato, and in part because the UK’s commitment to European defence would represent one of its few bargaining chips as it entered a period of tough negotiations with its EU neighbours”, according to Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general of RUSI and author of the report. |
| Brexit could have far-reaching implications for the European order and add to “a wider set of disintegrative factors which, taken together, could pose a threat to key elements of EU integration”, Chalmers warned. | Brexit could have far-reaching implications for the European order and add to “a wider set of disintegrative factors which, taken together, could pose a threat to key elements of EU integration”, Chalmers warned. |
| New crises in Europe and its neighbourhood – for example, in the Balkans or Africa – could also increase immediate demands on UK capabilities, especially in cases where the US makes it clear that it expects Europe to take the lead. | New crises in Europe and its neighbourhood – for example, in the Balkans or Africa – could also increase immediate demands on UK capabilities, especially in cases where the US makes it clear that it expects Europe to take the lead. |
| “In these circumstances, as Europe’s most capable military power, the UK could not easily stand aside from the European consensus without significant risk to its reputation as a reliable Nato partner,” the report found. | “In these circumstances, as Europe’s most capable military power, the UK could not easily stand aside from the European consensus without significant risk to its reputation as a reliable Nato partner,” the report found. |
| And whatever happens to the rest of the EU after a British exit, “the UK would still be a European country”, Chalmers said. “Its prosperity and security would still be intimately linked – as they have been in the past – to events in its neighbourhood. The institutional structures which have helped ensure peace for the last 60 years would need to evolve to cope with new challenges, and to address the weaknesses that the last decade has revealed so clearly.” | And whatever happens to the rest of the EU after a British exit, “the UK would still be a European country”, Chalmers said. “Its prosperity and security would still be intimately linked – as they have been in the past – to events in its neighbourhood. The institutional structures which have helped ensure peace for the last 60 years would need to evolve to cope with new challenges, and to address the weaknesses that the last decade has revealed so clearly.” |
| Chalmers added: “The more serious the challenges to European security, from whatever direction, the harder it would be for the UK to stand on the sidelines, closing its borders and averting its eyes.” | Chalmers added: “The more serious the challenges to European security, from whatever direction, the harder it would be for the UK to stand on the sidelines, closing its borders and averting its eyes.” |
| He also said a UK vote to leave the EU would not necessarily increase the likelihood that Scotland would vote to leave the UK. A British exit from the EU would probably make it significantly harder for Scotland to become an independent member of the EU. | He also said a UK vote to leave the EU would not necessarily increase the likelihood that Scotland would vote to leave the UK. A British exit from the EU would probably make it significantly harder for Scotland to become an independent member of the EU. |