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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/14/eu-referendum-live-polls-sun-brexit-remain-panic
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| EU referendum live: TNS poll gives leave campaign seven-point lead | EU referendum live: TNS poll gives leave campaign seven-point lead |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 5.09pm BST | |
| 17:09 | |
| 5.06pm BST | |
| 17:06 | |
| Mandleson says Brexit would make financial crash look like 'a walk in the park' | |
| Lord Mandelson, the Labour former business secretary and former European trade commissioner, has said that Brexit would make the financial crash look like “a walk in the park”. At a business lunch organised by London First he said: | |
| Far from being able to transfer savings from leaving the EU to more spending, for example, on the NHS, or schools, or universities, or farmers, we will eventually be facing cumulative, year-on-year post-Brexit austerity that would make the last financial crisis look like a walk in the park. | |
| He said that people should not be “conned” into thinking leaving the EU would solve their concerns about immigration. | |
| We will be taking the message across the country to Labour voters. There is so much riding on this, there is so much at stake. Do not be conned into thinking you can solve your concerns about immigration by leaving the European Union because all that will do is wreck the economy and make everything you rely on weaker and everything else you want in life harder to get. | |
| And he said the future of the City was hanging by a thread. | |
| The future of this great global city, in my opinion, hangs by a thread. If Britain votes to leave Europe a lot of Europe will have to leave London. | |
| 4.50pm BST | |
| 16:50 | |
| On the World at One Sir Charlie Mayfield, chairman of John Lewis, said that Brexit would be bad for his business. He said it was up to members of staff to decide for themselves how they voted, but he said management had been asked by staff about the impact leaving the EU would have. He told the programme: | |
| What we have said to them is if the UK votes to leave the European Union it would have an adverse impact on consumer confidence and activity. It is very, very hard to say for how long what would last, but it could easily be for a period of five years. And if, for example, you have things like a weaker currency, it will probably mean that prices rise. If there is less investment, which seems possible, then that could have an impact on jobs. And so there are concerns. | |
| 4.38pm BST | |
| 16:38 | |
| Watson says Cameron should push for reform of EU free movement rules during UK presidency in 2017 | |
| The BBC has now released the full transcript of Laura Kuenssberg’s interview with Tom Watson in which he proposed curbs on EU freedom of movement rules. | |
| It was not just a casual reference. Watson repeatedly said that Labour, and other parties fighting the 2020 election, would have to propose some form of restriction on EU migrants because this is what voters wanted. | |
| He also said that David Cameron should push for reform in this area when the UK holds the rotating presidency of the EU next year. | |
| Watson said: | |
| I think it’s very likely that a Labour government would want to reform the European Union and yes, if we get to a general election in 2020, of course we would have to listen to our voters. They’re giving us a pretty clear signal in this referendum, and I think we should be listening very clearly to what they’re telling us ... | |
| I’m very proud of Jeremy’s very long-held view that Britain should rightly lead the world in its reputation for providing haven for people fleeing war-torn areas or fleeing persecution, but that pride risks being undermined if we don’t address the concerns of British workers who have been affected by a de-regulated labour market. And they’ve been telling us for some time now that we need to look at these issues. So I think it could be that we go into a UK general election with that reform proposals on offer ... | |
| With freedom of movement, it’s one issue that’s coming up on the doorstep. A future government - whether it be Labour or Conservative - has to hear what voters are telling them and if you look across the continent of Europe, voters are telling political elites the same thing. So to me it’s inevitable that whoever wins the next general election will have to make it their negotiating position when it comes to future European reform and David Cameron has the opportunity to do that as prime minister now if he makes it the priority for Britain’s leadership of the presidency of the EU next year. | |
| One problem with this proposal is that Cameron pushed very hard for reform of the freedom of movement rules during his EU renegotiation and found that Germany and other EU member states were refusing to budge. If the threat of the UK leaving was not enough to trigger reform, it is hard to what Cameron could achieve during the UK’s presidency. | |
| Another problem for Watson is that Jeremy Corbyn said in a speech earlier this month that Britain “cannot and must not close the borders” to workers from the European Union. | |
| 4.12pm BST | 4.12pm BST |
| 16:12 | 16:12 |
| This is from the Times’s Rachel Sylvester. | This is from the Times’s Rachel Sylvester. |
| Labour MPs have been told today that Remain needs a 3 per cent swing among Labour voters to win. | Labour MPs have been told today that Remain needs a 3 per cent swing among Labour voters to win. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.19pm BST | at 4.19pm BST |
| 4.09pm BST | 4.09pm BST |
| 16:09 | 16:09 |
| "A toxic mix of misrepresentations, half-truths and folly' - Bild on UK's EU referendum debate | "A toxic mix of misrepresentations, half-truths and folly' - Bild on UK's EU referendum debate |
| Philip Oltermann | Philip Oltermann |
| Europe’s bestselling tabloid, Germany’s Bild, has today published a scathing comment piece on the level of debate ahead of the British referendum. “On the island they are writing history – but in mud”, the paper’s deputy editor Nikolaus Blome writes. “It’s a toxic mix of misrepresentations, half-truths and folly.” He goes on: | Europe’s bestselling tabloid, Germany’s Bild, has today published a scathing comment piece on the level of debate ahead of the British referendum. “On the island they are writing history – but in mud”, the paper’s deputy editor Nikolaus Blome writes. “It’s a toxic mix of misrepresentations, half-truths and folly.” He goes on: |
| It is a disgrace, not worthy of politicians, the media and all proud Britons. Because it is they who once taught Europe how to conduct intelligent political debate and what an enlightened, pragmatic democracy looks like. | It is a disgrace, not worthy of politicians, the media and all proud Britons. Because it is they who once taught Europe how to conduct intelligent political debate and what an enlightened, pragmatic democracy looks like. |
| 3.59pm BST | 3.59pm BST |
| 15:59 | 15:59 |
| The Daily Mail’s Jason Groves says Tom Watson seems to have changed his mind about free movement of labour since last Friday. | The Daily Mail’s Jason Groves says Tom Watson seems to have changed his mind about free movement of labour since last Friday. |
| I asked Tom Watson about EU free movement rules on Friday. If he felt they needed tightening up, he didn't mention it | I asked Tom Watson about EU free movement rules on Friday. If he felt they needed tightening up, he didn't mention it |
| 3.58pm BST | 3.58pm BST |
| 15:58 | 15:58 |
| According to the BBC, this is what the pro-Brexit Labour MP John Mann is saying about Tom Watson’s statement on the need to review free movement of labour rules. (See 3.29pm.) | According to the BBC, this is what the pro-Brexit Labour MP John Mann is saying about Tom Watson’s statement on the need to review free movement of labour rules. (See 3.29pm.) |
| While it is welcome that they are finally admitting that uncontrolled migration is a problem, the truth is that they still have no solutions. If Cameron’s ‘renegotiation’ told us one thing, it is that the EU will not move on this founding principle. | While it is welcome that they are finally admitting that uncontrolled migration is a problem, the truth is that they still have no solutions. If Cameron’s ‘renegotiation’ told us one thing, it is that the EU will not move on this founding principle. |
| 3.53pm BST | 3.53pm BST |
| 15:53 | 15:53 |
| Around 16% of pupils in England did not get into their first choice of secondary school this year, according to figures out today. | Around 16% of pupils in England did not get into their first choice of secondary school this year, according to figures out today. |
| In a Vote Leave press statement the employment minister Priti Patel says: | In a Vote Leave press statement the employment minister Priti Patel says: |
| The shortage of school places - with one in six children in England missing out on a place at their top choice of secondary school - is yet another example of how uncontrolled migration is putting unsustainable pressures on our public services. Education is one of the most important things that government delivers, and it’s deeply regrettable that so many families and young people have been let down in this way. | The shortage of school places - with one in six children in England missing out on a place at their top choice of secondary school - is yet another example of how uncontrolled migration is putting unsustainable pressures on our public services. Education is one of the most important things that government delivers, and it’s deeply regrettable that so many families and young people have been let down in this way. |
| 3.48pm BST | 3.48pm BST |
| 15:48 | 15:48 |
| TNS have now published details of their new poll. It was supposed to be embargoed, but the headline findings were published early on Twitter. | TNS have now published details of their new poll. It was supposed to be embargoed, but the headline findings were published early on Twitter. |
| Here are the key findings. | Here are the key findings. |
| Remain: 40% | Remain: 40% |
| Leave: 47% | Leave: 47% |
| Undecided/would not vote: 13% | Undecided/would not vote: 13% |
| TNS polled 2,497 people online. | TNS polled 2,497 people online. |
| This is from Luke Taylor, head of social and political attitudes at TNS UK. | This is from Luke Taylor, head of social and political attitudes at TNS UK. |
| It should be noted that among the entire general public the picture is more balanced with 33% supporting Remain, 35% supporting Leave and 32% undecided or planning not to vote. | It should be noted that among the entire general public the picture is more balanced with 33% supporting Remain, 35% supporting Leave and 32% undecided or planning not to vote. |
| Taking into account likelihood to vote and whether or not people are registered to vote, benefits ‘Leave’ over ‘Remain’. In particular, our turnout model penalises younger people and those that did not vote in the previous general election, as historically these groups are less likely to vote. However, this model is based on general elections and as this is a referendum turnout among these groups may be higher than expected, boosting the Remain score. | Taking into account likelihood to vote and whether or not people are registered to vote, benefits ‘Leave’ over ‘Remain’. In particular, our turnout model penalises younger people and those that did not vote in the previous general election, as historically these groups are less likely to vote. However, this model is based on general elections and as this is a referendum turnout among these groups may be higher than expected, boosting the Remain score. |
| Furthermore, while this poll presents a substantial lead for ‘Leave’ over ‘Remain’ among those voters that have now made up their minds, the proportion selecting ‘Leave’ is still a minority of all voters. There are still many undecided voters out there and the history of referendums suggests that they will largely opt for the status quo. | Furthermore, while this poll presents a substantial lead for ‘Leave’ over ‘Remain’ among those voters that have now made up their minds, the proportion selecting ‘Leave’ is still a minority of all voters. There are still many undecided voters out there and the history of referendums suggests that they will largely opt for the status quo. |
| This swing towards Leave since our last poll in late May might be due to a genuine change in opinion among voters but it could also be due to random error. | This swing towards Leave since our last poll in late May might be due to a genuine change in opinion among voters but it could also be due to random error. |
| 3.39pm BST | 3.39pm BST |
| 15:39 | 15:39 |
| Here is more on recent EU referendum polling. | Here is more on recent EU referendum polling. |
| Leave lead in recent #euref polls reporting on..Jun 14 +7 Jun 13 +7 Jun 13 +5 June 13 +5Jun 12 +1Jun 10 +1Jun 10 -2Jun 9 +10 | Leave lead in recent #euref polls reporting on..Jun 14 +7 Jun 13 +7 Jun 13 +5 June 13 +5Jun 12 +1Jun 10 +1Jun 10 -2Jun 9 +10 |
| 3.38pm BST | 3.38pm BST |
| 15:38 | 15:38 |
| 3.33pm BST | 3.33pm BST |
| 15:33 | 15:33 |
| TNS poll gives Leave a 7-point lead | TNS poll gives Leave a 7-point lead |
| TNS has got a new EU opinion poll out. It was supposed to be embargoed until later, but the academic Matthew Goodwin has posted the figures on Twitter. | TNS has got a new EU opinion poll out. It was supposed to be embargoed until later, but the academic Matthew Goodwin has posted the figures on Twitter. |
| New EU referendum poll:Remain: 40% (-1)Leave: 47% (+4)via TNS (online) | New EU referendum poll:Remain: 40% (-1)Leave: 47% (+4)via TNS (online) |
| 3.31pm BST | 3.31pm BST |
| 15:31 | 15:31 |
| Tristram Hunt, the Labour MP and former shadow education secretary, agrees with Tom Watson on the need for the EU’s free movement of labour rules to be reviewed.(See 3.29pm.) | Tristram Hunt, the Labour MP and former shadow education secretary, agrees with Tom Watson on the need for the EU’s free movement of labour rules to be reviewed.(See 3.29pm.) |
| .@tom_watson right to say we need to look at controls on free movement within the EU - the status quo is unsustainable | .@tom_watson right to say we need to look at controls on free movement within the EU - the status quo is unsustainable |
| 3.29pm BST | 3.29pm BST |
| 15:29 | 15:29 |
| Watson says EU free movement of labour rules may need revising | Watson says EU free movement of labour rules may need revising |
| Here is the full quote from Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, saying free movement of labour in the EU may have to be curbed in future. He told the BBC: | Here is the full quote from Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, saying free movement of labour in the EU may have to be curbed in future. He told the BBC: |
| For the last decade I would say immigration has been the backdrop to every election we’ve had in Britain. Woe betide politicians who don’t listen to what voters tell them. | For the last decade I would say immigration has been the backdrop to every election we’ve had in Britain. Woe betide politicians who don’t listen to what voters tell them. |
| And that’s a familiar story across Europe as well, you know, if you look at Germany or Austria or other European countries. I think what we have to say, I did say the immigration issue was complicated, I think what we have to reassure people is that if they vote remain on Thursday June 23, that isn’t the end of the reform package for Europe. I think a future Europe will have to look at things like the free movement of labour rules. | And that’s a familiar story across Europe as well, you know, if you look at Germany or Austria or other European countries. I think what we have to say, I did say the immigration issue was complicated, I think what we have to reassure people is that if they vote remain on Thursday June 23, that isn’t the end of the reform package for Europe. I think a future Europe will have to look at things like the free movement of labour rules. |
| According to the New Statesman’s George Eaton, Jeremy Corbyn’s office is trying to downplay the significance of this. | According to the New Statesman’s George Eaton, Jeremy Corbyn’s office is trying to downplay the significance of this. |
| Corbyn spokesman tells me Tom Watson was "repeating Labour's line that reforms were required in EU laws" to prevent "undercutting of pay". | Corbyn spokesman tells me Tom Watson was "repeating Labour's line that reforms were required in EU laws" to prevent "undercutting of pay". |
| It is clear from the quote that Watson was going further than Corbyn’s spokesman is implying. However, according to another source, Watson was not trying to float new policy ahead of the referendum. He made his remark at the end of a relatively long interview, and he was just making a general point about the future. He was also arguing that Britain could end up being affected by free movement rules even if it left the EU (as Norway is) and that therefore it needs to remain in to have a say over how they develop, the source says. | It is clear from the quote that Watson was going further than Corbyn’s spokesman is implying. However, according to another source, Watson was not trying to float new policy ahead of the referendum. He made his remark at the end of a relatively long interview, and he was just making a general point about the future. He was also arguing that Britain could end up being affected by free movement rules even if it left the EU (as Norway is) and that therefore it needs to remain in to have a say over how they develop, the source says. |