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After the EU referendum: What happens next? Brexit: What happens now?
(5 days later)
Thursday will be an historic day with long-term implications, whether Britain votes to leave the EU or remain in it. Here is what is likely to happen next. The UK has voted to leave the EU - a process that has come to be known as Brexit. Here is what is likely to happen next.
Dawn breaksDawn breaks
Unless the result is on a knife-edge, we are likely to know by dawn on Friday 24 June whether the UK has voted in or out. The first thing to stress is that if Britain votes to leave it will not happen immediately. Britain will still be a member of the European Union at this stage. The process of leaving will begin, however. At exactly 06:00 BST it was confirmed that the UK had voted to leave the European Union. The first thing to stress is that the UK will not leave immediately. The UK will still be a member of the European Union at this stage. The process of leaving will begin, however.
David Cameron's statementDavid Cameron's statement
David Cameron will almost certainly make a statement on the Friday morning - more likely than not in Downing Street - after the result becomes clear. David Cameron will almost certainly make a statement - more likely than not in Downing Street.
This will be followed by a statement to Parliament on the Monday or earlier if MPs demand a special sitting on Friday or Saturday. This will be followed by a statement to Parliament on Monday or earlier if MPs demand a special sitting on Friday or Saturday.
Mr Cameron has insisted that he will not quit as prime minister even if it's a vote to leave. However it remains widely expected that this would be the time to announce his departure, if the British people have rejected his advice to stay in the EU. During the campaign, Mr Cameron insisted that he would not quit as prime minister in the event of a leave vote. However, it remains widely expected that as the British people have rejected his advice to stay in the EU, this would be the time to announce his departure.
The markets reactThe markets react
All eyes will be on the City of London when trading starts at 08:00 BST.All eyes will be on the City of London when trading starts at 08:00 BST.
The financial markets have been reacting to every development in the EU referendum campaign. The value of the pound will also be watched closely. No-one can say what the impact of the vote will be on the markets, but Andrew Walker, the BBC World Service business correspondent, says some analysts "expect the fall in the value of sterling in the event of a Brexit vote would be very sharp". The value of the pound tumbled after the announcement of the first results in the referendum - falling to its lowest levels against the dollar since 1985.
Some in the Leave camp have acknowledged there would be a short-term "blip" in the markets but insist things will quickly return to normal. Some in the Leave camp acknowledged there would be a short-term "blip" in the markets but insist things will quickly return to normal.
Bank Governor Mark Carney would be likely to emerge as a key figure in the hours and days after a Leave vote and the European Central Bank is also likely to react swiftly given the scale of the changes to the EU that would follow a UK vote to leave. Bank governor Mark Carney is likely to emerge as a key figure in the following hours and days and the European Central Bank is also likely to react swiftly given the scale of the changes to the EU that will follow a UK vote to leave.
European leaders respondEuropean leaders respond
A Remain vote will be received with a collective sigh of relief in Europe's capitals - all EU leaders want Britain to stay in the bloc. All EU leaders want the UK to stay in the bloc and a Leave vote will be met with dismay and anger across the Channel. EU leaders will probably convene an emergency summit, probably as early as the weekend.
In such a scenario, German chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, European Council President Donald Tusk, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and other power brokers will be expected to fast-track the changes to the UK's membership negotiated by David Cameron earlier this year - including curbs on in-work benefits for EU migrants, safeguards for sterling and an opt-out from ever closer union.
A Leave vote will be met with dismay and anger across the channel. EU leaders would probably convene an emergency summit, probably as early as the weekend.
What will happen is difficult to predict. There has already been talk of other EU leaders offering fresh concessions in an attempt to keep the UK on board although both Leave and Remain campaigners have dismissed this, saying the will of the British people must be respected.What will happen is difficult to predict. There has already been talk of other EU leaders offering fresh concessions in an attempt to keep the UK on board although both Leave and Remain campaigners have dismissed this, saying the will of the British people must be respected.
And given Mr Juncker - the president of the European Commission - has suggested that "splitters will not be welcomed back with open arms", the atmosphere could potentially become quite toxic quite quickly. And given Mr Juncker - the president of the European Commission - has suggested that "splitters will not be welcomed back with open arms", the atmosphere could become quite toxic quite quickly.
Europe's leaders, concerned about the rise of populist anti-EU parties in their own countries, will want a joint declaration of a determination to continue - and there will be demands for the UK to set out where it stands on key issues such as free movement, to reassure the 2.9 million EU citizens living in the UK that they will not be deported.Europe's leaders, concerned about the rise of populist anti-EU parties in their own countries, will want a joint declaration of a determination to continue - and there will be demands for the UK to set out where it stands on key issues such as free movement, to reassure the 2.9 million EU citizens living in the UK that they will not be deported.
David Cameron's futureDavid Cameron's future
A Remain victory by a double digit margin should be enough for Mr Cameron to see off any leadership challenges and shore up his government's position. The prime minister has insisted he will carry on whatever the result, and on Thursday night 84 Conservative MPs who campaigned for Brexit urged him to remain as prime minister, but there are plenty of commentators and some Tory MPs who believe a Leave vote will put him in an untenable position.
But a Leave vote or a narrow Remain win could herald a very different fate for Mr Cameron, who has already said that he will stand down before the next election due in 2020. Mr Cameron has already said that he will stand down before the next election due in 2020. If he decided to stay on it would take 50 MPs to write to the party's 1922 committee to trigger a vote of confidence in his leadership. Iain Duncan Smith, one of Mr Cameron's predecessors, was brought down in this way.
He has insisted he will carry on whatever the result, but there are plenty of commentators and some Tory MPs who feel a Leave vote would put him in an untenable position.
If Mr Cameron decided to stay on it would take 50 MPs to write to the party's 1922 committee to trigger a vote of confidence in his leadership. Iain Duncan Smith, one of Mr Cameron's predecessors, was brought down in this way.
Only a small handful of MPs have so far said they are prepared to do this but given the wounds that the campaign has opened up, this cannot be ruled out. This, as with Mr Cameron deciding to resign, raises the prospect of a Conservative leadership contest, which would take several months and could add a further layer of uncertainty to the EU exit negotiations.Only a small handful of MPs have so far said they are prepared to do this but given the wounds that the campaign has opened up, this cannot be ruled out. This, as with Mr Cameron deciding to resign, raises the prospect of a Conservative leadership contest, which would take several months and could add a further layer of uncertainty to the EU exit negotiations.
Pushing the exit buttonPushing the exit button
David Cameron has said in the event of a Leave vote, he will activate Article 50 of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty without undue delay - setting in motion the process of withdrawing from the European Union. George Osborne has suggested this could happen within two weeks of a leave vote. Mr Cameron said in the event of a leave vote, he would activate Article 50 of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty without undue delay - setting in motion the process of withdrawing from the European Union. George Osborne has suggested this could happen within two weeks of a leave vote.
Once Article 50 is triggered, there is no way back into the EU unless by unanimous consent from all other member states.Once Article 50 is triggered, there is no way back into the EU unless by unanimous consent from all other member states.
But quitting the EU is not an automatic process - it has to be negotiated with the remaining members. These negotiations are meant to be completed within two years but the European Parliament has a veto over any new agreement formalising the relationship between the UK and the EU.But quitting the EU is not an automatic process - it has to be negotiated with the remaining members. These negotiations are meant to be completed within two years but the European Parliament has a veto over any new agreement formalising the relationship between the UK and the EU.
Leave campaigners Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have said there is no need to trigger Article 50 immediately. Only after extensive informal talks with other EU members and the European Commission will it become clear whether and how to trigger Article 50, Vote Leave has said.Leave campaigners Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have said there is no need to trigger Article 50 immediately. Only after extensive informal talks with other EU members and the European Commission will it become clear whether and how to trigger Article 50, Vote Leave has said.
The idea would be to allow other EU leaders the time to realise they need a "friendly" trade deal with the UK to continue exporting their consumer goods into the British market without tariffs.The idea would be to allow other EU leaders the time to realise they need a "friendly" trade deal with the UK to continue exporting their consumer goods into the British market without tariffs.
Also Britain could, technically, ignore all of this, the Vote Leave campaign says, and simply write the EU out of its laws, although that wouldn't make future negotiations any easier.Also Britain could, technically, ignore all of this, the Vote Leave campaign says, and simply write the EU out of its laws, although that wouldn't make future negotiations any easier.
As only one part of one country has ever left the European Community - Greenland more than 30 years ago (read Carolyn Quinn's feature on how they left) - we would be in unchartered territory here. As only one part of one country has ever left the European Community - Greenland more than 30 years ago (read Carolyn Quinn's feature on how they left) - we will be in uncharted territory here.
Exit negotiations beginExit negotiations begin
So, depending on when the prime minister triggers Article 50 (as discussed above), perhaps at some time in late summer, or early autumn 2016, if Britain votes to leave, negotiations would begin in Brussels on the terms of its exit and the nature of the UK's subsequent relationship with the EU. So, depending on when the prime minister triggers Article 50, perhaps at some time in late summer, or early autumn 2016, negotiations will begin in Brussels on the terms of its exit and the nature of the UK's subsequent relationship with the EU.
This would involve not only rescinding the European Communities Act, which gives primacy to EU law in the UK, but also sifting through an estimated 80,000 pages of EU agreements, which have been enacted over the past five decades to decide which will be repealed, amended or retained - a process which Parliament will want to oversee. This would involve not only rescinding the European Communities Act, which gives primacy to EU law in the UK, but also sifting through an estimated 80,000 pages of EU agreements, which have been enacted over the past five decades, to decide which will be repealed, amended or retained - a process which Parliament will want to oversee.
After two years, the UK would no longer be bound by existing EU Treaties unless both it and the other 27 states agree unanimously to extend the process of negotiations.After two years, the UK would no longer be bound by existing EU Treaties unless both it and the other 27 states agree unanimously to extend the process of negotiations.
Parliament will not stay silentParliament will not stay silent
The majority of Britain's 650 MPs are in favour of Britain staying in the EU and while they will have to respect the will of the British people if they vote to leave the EU, they will not be silent bystanders. The majority of the UK's 650 MPs are in favour of Britain staying in the EU and while they will have to respect the will of the British people, they will not be silent bystanders.
There are already moves among the 450 or so MPs who want to stay in the EU, across the Labour, Conservative, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Green parties, to keep Britain in the single market in any exit negotiations. There are already moves among the 450 or so MPs who want to stay in the EU, across the Labour, Conservative, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Green parties, to keep the UK in the single market in any exit negotiations.
This would mean Britain would have to keep its borders open to EU workers and continue paying into EU coffers.This would mean Britain would have to keep its borders open to EU workers and continue paying into EU coffers.
They say it would be legitimate for MPs to do this because the Leave campaign has refused to spell out what trading relationship it wants the UK to have with the EU in the future - and it would demonstrate the sovereignty of Parliament the Leavers were so keen to restore.They say it would be legitimate for MPs to do this because the Leave campaign has refused to spell out what trading relationship it wants the UK to have with the EU in the future - and it would demonstrate the sovereignty of Parliament the Leavers were so keen to restore.
Vote Leave is calling for immediate legislation to pave the way for Britain's formal exit by the next election due in 2020, the centrepiece of which would be repeal of the European Communities Act 1972, the brief piece of legislation that brought the country into the European Economic Community as it was then known. Vote Leave is calling for immediate legislation to pave the way for Britain's formal exit by the next election due in 2020, the centrepiece of which would be repeal of the European Communities Act 1972, the brief piece of legislation that brought the country into the European Economic Community, as it was then known.
Who would lead Britain's negotiations?Who would lead Britain's negotiations?
Then there is the question of who will do the negotiating for Britain. The most senior members of the government - David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne, Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Theresa May - are all Remain supporters.Then there is the question of who will do the negotiating for Britain. The most senior members of the government - David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne, Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Theresa May - are all Remain supporters.
The Leave side has said that it would be happy for the prime minister and senior civil servants - including Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood - to stay put to lead the negotiations although they would expect senior Leave figures to play a very prominent role. They have also called for figures from other parties, business, law and civil society to be drafted in to the negotiating team. During the campaign, the Leave side said that it would be happy for the prime minister and senior civil servants - including cabinet secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood - to stay put to lead the negotiations although they would expect senior Leave figures to play a very prominent role. They have also called for figures from other parties, business, law and civil society to be drafted in to the negotiating team.
Even if Mr Cameron stays, expect a major shake-up of the Cabinet with the likes of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson getting promotions. Mr Gove has been tipped as a potential deputy prime minister and lead Cabinet negotiator and the former mayor could also expect a plum job. Even if Mr Cameron stays, expect a major shake-up of the cabinet with the likes of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson getting promotions. Mr Gove has been tipped as a potential deputy prime minister and lead cabinet negotiator and the former mayor could also expect a plum job.
A Cabinet reshuffle is also expected in the aftermath of a Remain win. Although whether it is enough heal the wounds of the campaign is another question...
Summer 2018 - exit loomsSummer 2018 - exit looms
As the Article 50 two-year deadline approaches after the vote to leave, the prime minister of the day will be under pressure to sort out the terms of Britain's exit and a new trade deal with the EU before the country ceases to be a member.As the Article 50 two-year deadline approaches after the vote to leave, the prime minister of the day will be under pressure to sort out the terms of Britain's exit and a new trade deal with the EU before the country ceases to be a member.
It is possible, say Remain campaigners, that Britain's membership could cease and the UK revert to trading with the EU under World Trade Organisation rules, which would involve exporters being hit by import taxes, or tariffs. It is possible, say Remain campaigners, that Britain's membership could cease and the UK revert to trading with the EU under World Trade Organization rules, which would involve exporters being hit by import taxes, or tariffs.
The deal would have to be agreed by a qualified majority on the council of ministers and be ratified by the member states. It would also have to be agreed by the European Parliament and MPs at Westminster.The deal would have to be agreed by a qualified majority on the council of ministers and be ratified by the member states. It would also have to be agreed by the European Parliament and MPs at Westminster.
Under this scenario British ministers would return to Brussels, at some point, to negotiate a more favourable trade deal, which Remain campaigners have warned could take years, maybe even decades, to fully complete.Under this scenario British ministers would return to Brussels, at some point, to negotiate a more favourable trade deal, which Remain campaigners have warned could take years, maybe even decades, to fully complete.
The Leave campaign insists that a favourable trade deal could be done fairly rapidly because it would not be in the interests of France and Germany to lose access to the British market for its consumer goods.The Leave campaign insists that a favourable trade deal could be done fairly rapidly because it would not be in the interests of France and Germany to lose access to the British market for its consumer goods.
They also reject the two-year timetable for exit, saying the government should aim to complete negotiations on a new EU-UK trade deal by 2020.They also reject the two-year timetable for exit, saying the government should aim to complete negotiations on a new EU-UK trade deal by 2020.
And if Britain votes to Remain...
Things will not stand still. Britain's relationship with the EU is set to change in some important ways in the next decade.
A document, dubbed the five presidents' report, published last year outlines plans by the eurozone countries to stabilise their currency by completing economic and monetary union. This is meant to happen by 2025.
There is concern that as the eurozone countries push ahead with merging their banking systems, the UK will be absorbed into an emerging "superstate" or, alternatively, kept out of the really big decisions.
David Cameron secured guarantees in his renegotiation that Britain would have "special status" within the EU, taking full part in the single market but not part of the eurozone.
Britain will also be exempted from the drive towards "ever closer union" under Mr Cameron's deal - and the UK will not be liable for eurozone bailouts. He also secured protections for the City of London and a new mechanism for member states to challenge laws they believe to be discriminatory.
But Leave campaigners have claimed Mr Cameron's deal is full of holes and has not yet been written into a treaty (the only documents that count in the EU).
Conservative MP Owen Paterson has argued that the prime minister's "special status" will "leave Britain as a colony of Europe".
The UK's future up for grabs?The UK's future up for grabs?
UKIP leader Nigel Farage has raised the spectre of a second EU referendum if the result is close, saying it would leave the question of the UK's future in Europe essentially unresolved. The SNP warned during the campaign that if - as has happened - the UK overall votes to leave the EU but Scots vote to remain, Scotland would be taken out of the EU "against its will" and this could be the trigger for another independence vote.
Talk of a "neverendum" alarms Remain campaigners on the Tory side, given the parallel with Scotland where the SNP enjoyed a huge surge in the polls after their defeat in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. While SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon's failure to win a majority in last month's Holyrood elections means this will be harder to achieve, there are concerns in Westminster that a Leave vote could undermine the future of the Union.
But if there is another referendum on the horizon, it may not even be on the issue of Europe.
The SNP has warned that if the UK overall votes to leave the EU but Scots vote to remain, Scotland would be taken out of the EU "against its will" and this could be the trigger for another independence vote.
While Nicola Sturgeon's failure to win a majority in last month's Holyrood elections means this will be harder to achieve, there are concerns in Westminster that a Leave vote could undermine the future of the Union.