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| How Much Can Mike Pence Help Donald Trump? | How Much Can Mike Pence Help Donald Trump? |
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| Here’s a good rule about vice-presidential selections: Even when they matter, they usually don’t matter much. | Here’s a good rule about vice-presidential selections: Even when they matter, they usually don’t matter much. |
| Donald J. Trump’s newly selected running mate, Mike Pence, the governor of Indiana, seems even less likely to affect the result than most. He’s a relatively safe choice: an experienced but relatively unknown politician from a state that the Republicans were already expected to win. | Donald J. Trump’s newly selected running mate, Mike Pence, the governor of Indiana, seems even less likely to affect the result than most. He’s a relatively safe choice: an experienced but relatively unknown politician from a state that the Republicans were already expected to win. |
| It is hard to argue that vice-presidential selections make big differences in presidential elections. It’s not even obvious that Sarah Palin, for all of her challenges, was a big drag on John McCain in 2008. Mr. McCain lost by just seven percentage points — a pretty good outcome considering George W. Bush’s approval ratings at the time and the state of the economy at the height of the financial crisis. | It is hard to argue that vice-presidential selections make big differences in presidential elections. It’s not even obvious that Sarah Palin, for all of her challenges, was a big drag on John McCain in 2008. Mr. McCain lost by just seven percentage points — a pretty good outcome considering George W. Bush’s approval ratings at the time and the state of the economy at the height of the financial crisis. |
| Mr. Pence seems a lot less likely to shake up the race than Mrs. Palin. He carries relatively few risks and little upside for Mr. Trump. | Mr. Pence seems a lot less likely to shake up the race than Mrs. Palin. He carries relatively few risks and little upside for Mr. Trump. |
| He is not a well-known figure. A recent New York Times/CBS News poll found that 86 percent of registered voters were either undecided or did not know enough about him to have an opinion. He’s an experienced politician who seems unlikely to endanger the ticket by appearing unqualified for the presidency if the need were to arise. | |
| Typically, most of the effect of vice-presidential candidates can be found in their home states, where a selection can help a ticket by a couple of percentage points. There are a few examples of bigger boosts: The selection of Mrs. Palin, for instance, probably helped Mr. McCain by more than five percentage points in Alaska in 2008. But there are also instances where it’s hard to identify an effect at all. | Typically, most of the effect of vice-presidential candidates can be found in their home states, where a selection can help a ticket by a couple of percentage points. There are a few examples of bigger boosts: The selection of Mrs. Palin, for instance, probably helped Mr. McCain by more than five percentage points in Alaska in 2008. But there are also instances where it’s hard to identify an effect at all. |
| Mr. Pence’s home state, Indiana, is already thought to lean toward Mr. Trump. Mitt Romney carried the state by 10 points in 2012, and the Clinton campaign is not bothering to air advertisements in the state. | Mr. Pence’s home state, Indiana, is already thought to lean toward Mr. Trump. Mitt Romney carried the state by 10 points in 2012, and the Clinton campaign is not bothering to air advertisements in the state. |
| Mr. Pence is not especially popular in Indiana either. He won the governor’s race narrowly in 2012, even as Mr. Romney comfortably carried the state. His approval ratings slipped into the 40s after his support for the state’s Religious Freedom Restoration Act, which caused some businesses and state governments to boycott the state because they believed it made it easier to allow discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. Recent surveys showed that Mr. Pence was even in some danger of losing re-election this fall. | Mr. Pence is not especially popular in Indiana either. He won the governor’s race narrowly in 2012, even as Mr. Romney comfortably carried the state. His approval ratings slipped into the 40s after his support for the state’s Religious Freedom Restoration Act, which caused some businesses and state governments to boycott the state because they believed it made it easier to allow discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. Recent surveys showed that Mr. Pence was even in some danger of losing re-election this fall. |
| Mr. Pence’s record of supporting conservative cultural causes like the Religious Freedom Restoration Act could easily define whatever modest effect his nomination ultimately has on voters. It could help Mr. Trump solidify the support of consistently conservative voters who may have reservations about his iconoclastic views. The trade-off, of course, is that it may help Hillary Clinton win socially moderate voters. | Mr. Pence’s record of supporting conservative cultural causes like the Religious Freedom Restoration Act could easily define whatever modest effect his nomination ultimately has on voters. It could help Mr. Trump solidify the support of consistently conservative voters who may have reservations about his iconoclastic views. The trade-off, of course, is that it may help Hillary Clinton win socially moderate voters. |
| But the opportunities for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton to make gains among these groups is fairly limited. A recent Pew Research survey found that white evangelical Christians supported Mr. Trump, 78-17, an even larger margin than Mr. Romney’s lead at this time in 2012. Mrs. Clinton, though, is faring about as well among nonreligious voters as President Obama did four years earlier. | |
| And with candidates as well known as Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton at the top of the tickets, the opportunity for a vice-presidential nominee to move the needle might be even smaller than usual. | And with candidates as well known as Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton at the top of the tickets, the opportunity for a vice-presidential nominee to move the needle might be even smaller than usual. |