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| Brexit latest: Surprise jump in retail sales in July after EU referendum vote | Brexit latest: Surprise jump in retail sales in July after EU referendum vote |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| There was no sign of British shoppers reining in spending in the wake of the EU referendum result, one of the first "hard" post Brexit vote set of statistics has shown. | There was no sign of British shoppers reining in spending in the wake of the EU referendum result, one of the first "hard" post Brexit vote set of statistics has shown. |
| Retail sales jumped 1.4 per cent in July, more than reversing the 0.9 per cent decline in June, according to the Office for National Statistics. | Retail sales jumped 1.4 per cent in July, more than reversing the 0.9 per cent decline in June, according to the Office for National Statistics. |
| City of London economists had expected only a 0.2 per cent increase in the month, anticipating that shoppers would hold back because of uncertainty created by Brexit. | City of London economists had expected only a 0.2 per cent increase in the month, anticipating that shoppers would hold back because of uncertainty created by Brexit. |
| Some post-Brexit surveys of consumer confidence had pointed to a sharp fall in the wake of the vote. | Some post-Brexit surveys of consumer confidence had pointed to a sharp fall in the wake of the vote. |
| The GfK Index had pointed to the sharpest monthly decline in 26 years. | The GfK Index had pointed to the sharpest monthly decline in 26 years. |
| The positive news sent sterling up sharply up against the dollar to a two week high of $1.3162. Against the euro the pound jumped to €1.1624. | The positive news sent sterling up sharply up against the dollar to a two week high of $1.3162. Against the euro the pound jumped to €1.1624. |
| Joe Grice, the chief economic adviser to the ONS, said the latest retail numbers were "strong" and said there were signs the steep fall in sterling since the June referendum might have attracted overseas shoppers to the UK. | |
| "There is... anecdotal evidence from respondents suggesting the weaker pound has encouraged overseas visitors to spend. Department stores and specialist retailers like jewellers are among those reporting a good month” he said. | |
| However, other analysts cautioned against placing too much emphasis on the latest figures. | However, other analysts cautioned against placing too much emphasis on the latest figures. |
| "We would be wary about reading too much into the jump in July’s figures. The month-on-month data tend to be fairly volatile and temporary factors such as July’s warm weather seems to have boosted spending" said Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics. | "We would be wary about reading too much into the jump in July’s figures. The month-on-month data tend to be fairly volatile and temporary factors such as July’s warm weather seems to have boosted spending" said Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics. |
| "Consumers’ blissful ignorance won’t last long" said Samuel Tombs of Pantheon, predicting that the high street would be in for a "tough year". | "Consumers’ blissful ignorance won’t last long" said Samuel Tombs of Pantheon, predicting that the high street would be in for a "tough year". |
| Retail sales account for around 30 per cent of household consumer spending and household spending accounts for around 60 per cent of GDP making retail an important barometer of the direction of the wider economy | |
| The ONS figures are based on a survey of 5,000 retailers, including all large retailers employing 100 people or more. The data was collected between 3 July and 30 July. | The ONS figures are based on a survey of 5,000 retailers, including all large retailers employing 100 people or more. The data was collected between 3 July and 30 July. |
| On the same month a year earlier the volume of food sales were up 4.1 per cent in July. Non-food store sales rose 5.6 per cent and department store sales rose 9.7 per cent. | On the same month a year earlier the volume of food sales were up 4.1 per cent in July. Non-food store sales rose 5.6 per cent and department store sales rose 9.7 per cent. |
| Fuel sales rose 9.9 per cent. | Fuel sales rose 9.9 per cent. |