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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Markets cautious after crucial US healthcare vote delayed - business live | Markets cautious after crucial US healthcare vote delayed - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.50am GMT | |
| 09:50 | |
| Eurozone PMI reaction: firms shrug off election uncertainty | |
| Reaction to the stronger-than-expected eurozone data is coming in. | |
| Bert Colijn, a senior eurozone economist at ING: | |
| While political uncertainty in the eurozone itself and among its larger trade partners continues to be high, sentiment among eurozone businesses about activity in the coming year continues to improve. | |
| There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic though, as businesses indicate continued increases in new orders, the strongest output growth in near six years and employment is growing at a pace not seen for almost a decade. The acceleration of job growth will underpin improvements in domestic demand in the months ahead, which is in line with this month’s strong consumer confidence figures. | |
| Stephen Brown, European economist at Capital Economics, says the PMI suggests that the economy might have had its best quarter in two years: | |
| After a strong rise in March the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy might have had its strongest quarter in two years in Q1. | |
| In all then, some encouraging news for the region. But while the output prices index increased further, there is still slack in the labour market and wage growth is set to remain subdued. As such, policymakers at the European Central Bank are unlikely to be convinced that recent signs of a pick-up in activity will translate into sustained upward pressure on inflation. | |
| 9.29am GMT | |
| 09:29 | |
| Eurozone growth hits six-year high in March, survey suggests | |
| The eurozone economy grew at the fastest rate in almost six years in March according to a survey of firms across the whole region. | |
| The flash PMI index measuring services and manufacturing output rose to 56.7 from 56 in February, taking it to the highest level since April 2011. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a small dip in the index, to 55.8 (where anything above 50 signals growth). | |
| As demand in the sectors picked up, firms hired workers at the fastest rate since July 2007. | |
| Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said the survey suggested the eurozone was on course for a decent start to the second quarter of 2017: | |
| The acceleration in growth towards the end of the quarter, as well as improving trends in new business and an increased appetite to hire, suggest that strong growth momentum will be sustained into the second quarter. | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.33am GMT | |
| 9.11am GMT | 9.11am GMT |
| 09:11 | 09:11 |
| Here are the specific numbers for those stronger-than-expected German and French PMIs. | Here are the specific numbers for those stronger-than-expected German and French PMIs. |
| (Anything above 50 indicates growth.) | (Anything above 50 indicates growth.) |
| Germany’s flash composite* PMI rose to 57 in March from 56 .1 in February. | Germany’s flash composite* PMI rose to 57 in March from 56 .1 in February. |
| In France, the composite PMI rose to 57.6 in March from 55.9 in February. | In France, the composite PMI rose to 57.6 in March from 55.9 in February. |
| Both signalled the fastest rate of growth since May 2011. | Both signalled the fastest rate of growth since May 2011. |
| *composite combines the services and manufacturing sector. | *composite combines the services and manufacturing sector. |
| The broad picture appears to that Europe’s two largest economies performed well in March, providing a boost to the overall performance in the third quarter. | The broad picture appears to that Europe’s two largest economies performed well in March, providing a boost to the overall performance in the third quarter. |
| 8.54am GMT | 8.54am GMT |
| 08:54 | 08:54 |
| German and French firms report strongest growth in six years | German and French firms report strongest growth in six years |
| Closely-watched surveys from Germany and France suggest Europe’s two largest economies enjoyed a strong March. | Closely-watched surveys from Germany and France suggest Europe’s two largest economies enjoyed a strong March. |
| Growth accelerated in the manufacturing and services sectors in both countries compared with February according to the Markit PMI surveys, beating economists’ expectations. | Growth accelerated in the manufacturing and services sectors in both countries compared with February according to the Markit PMI surveys, beating economists’ expectations. |
| Taking the two sectors together, the PMIs suggested the private sectors in both Germany and France grew at the fastest rate in almost six years. | Taking the two sectors together, the PMIs suggested the private sectors in both Germany and France grew at the fastest rate in almost six years. |
| Trevor Balchin, senior economist at IHS Markit, said the surveys suggested Germany’s economy would grow at a faster rate in the first quarter than it did in the final quarter of 2016 (0.4%). | Trevor Balchin, senior economist at IHS Markit, said the surveys suggested Germany’s economy would grow at a faster rate in the first quarter than it did in the final quarter of 2016 (0.4%). |
| The March flash PMI results rounded off a strong first quarter for the Germany economy, which enters the spring growing at the fastest rate in nearly six years. The PMI data strongly suggest that economic growth will accelerate in the first quarter. | The March flash PMI results rounded off a strong first quarter for the Germany economy, which enters the spring growing at the fastest rate in nearly six years. The PMI data strongly suggest that economic growth will accelerate in the first quarter. |
| Commenting on the French data, Alex Gill, economist at IHS Markit said: | Commenting on the French data, Alex Gill, economist at IHS Markit said: |
| These numbers paint a rosy picture of the French private sector, as we start to see the effect of various governmental reforms enacted over the last few years. Meanwhile, a high level of business optimism continues to have a positive influence on firms hiring decisions, and can be attributed to a widespread expectation of pro-business policies after May’s presidential elections. | These numbers paint a rosy picture of the French private sector, as we start to see the effect of various governmental reforms enacted over the last few years. Meanwhile, a high level of business optimism continues to have a positive influence on firms hiring decisions, and can be attributed to a widespread expectation of pro-business policies after May’s presidential elections. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.01am GMT | at 9.01am GMT |
| 8.30am GMT | 8.30am GMT |
| 08:30 | 08:30 |
| European markets dip in early trading | European markets dip in early trading |
| Caution on Wall Street last night has carried through to Europe this morning as a subdued trading session gets underway. | Caution on Wall Street last night has carried through to Europe this morning as a subdued trading session gets underway. |
| Here are the early scores: | Here are the early scores: |
| FTSE 100: -0.02% at 7,339 | FTSE 100: -0.02% at 7,339 |
| Germany’s DAX: -0.1% at 12,034 | Germany’s DAX: -0.1% at 12,034 |
| France’s CAC: -0.3% at 5,017 | France’s CAC: -0.3% at 5,017 |
| Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.3% at 20,113 | Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.3% at 20,113 |
| Spain’s IBEX: -0.3% at 10,291 | Spain’s IBEX: -0.3% at 10,291 |
| Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.2% at 377 | Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.2% at 377 |
| Investors are in wait and see mode as Trump engages in a major standoff with his fellow Republicans over the controversial healthcare bill to replace Obamacare. | Investors are in wait and see mode as Trump engages in a major standoff with his fellow Republicans over the controversial healthcare bill to replace Obamacare. |
| 8.04am GMT | 8.04am GMT |
| 08:04 | 08:04 |
| Here’s our full story on Trump’s ultimatum: | Here’s our full story on Trump’s ultimatum: |
| 8.03am GMT | 8.03am GMT |
| 08:03 | 08:03 |
| Wall Street closed down last down but it could have been a lot worse after Trump had to admit defeat (for the time being at least) on the US healthcare bill, which seeks to replace Obamacare. | Wall Street closed down last down but it could have been a lot worse after Trump had to admit defeat (for the time being at least) on the US healthcare bill, which seeks to replace Obamacare. |
| Trump took gamble on Thursday by issuing an ultimatum: pass the bill in its current form or we’re sticking with Obamacare. | Trump took gamble on Thursday by issuing an ultimatum: pass the bill in its current form or we’re sticking with Obamacare. |
| The Dow Jones was pretty much flat at the close, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.2%. | The Dow Jones was pretty much flat at the close, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.2%. |
| We are taking action to #RepealANDReplace #Obamacare! Contact your Rep & tell them you support #AHCA. #PassTheBill https://t.co/opzrXJigGA pic.twitter.com/C7snoRafPI | We are taking action to #RepealANDReplace #Obamacare! Contact your Rep & tell them you support #AHCA. #PassTheBill https://t.co/opzrXJigGA pic.twitter.com/C7snoRafPI |
| 7.40am GMT | 7.40am GMT |
| 07:40 | 07:40 |
| Agenda: Snapshot of French and German economies due | Agenda: Snapshot of French and German economies due |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Another day, another wait to see if Donald Trump’s healthcare bill will pass muster after delays on Thursday. Markets are nervous that a failure could dent Trump’s tax and spending plans, which have been boosting share values ever since the election. But it may not be that simple. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, said: | Another day, another wait to see if Donald Trump’s healthcare bill will pass muster after delays on Thursday. Markets are nervous that a failure could dent Trump’s tax and spending plans, which have been boosting share values ever since the election. But it may not be that simple. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, said: |
| A validation would ... grant Trump the credibility on his ability to pass through his fiscal policies, including tax reforms and large infrastructure spending. An eventual failure could let down investors, yet it is worth noting that the major market focus is still on the US’ fiscal plans and the Trump administration could carry on with its expansive fiscal plans regardless of a disappointment on the health-care bill. | A validation would ... grant Trump the credibility on his ability to pass through his fiscal policies, including tax reforms and large infrastructure spending. An eventual failure could let down investors, yet it is worth noting that the major market focus is still on the US’ fiscal plans and the Trump administration could carry on with its expansive fiscal plans regardless of a disappointment on the health-care bill. |
| Meanwhile the eurozone is back in focus, or at least France and Germany. Initial readings for the manufacturing and service sectors for the two countries in March are due shortly. Michael Hewson at CMC Markets said: | Meanwhile the eurozone is back in focus, or at least France and Germany. Initial readings for the manufacturing and service sectors for the two countries in March are due shortly. Michael Hewson at CMC Markets said: |
| We get to see whether the recent economic recovery in France and Germany has maintained its traction from January and February, with the latest flash PMI’s for March in the manufacturing and services sectors. | We get to see whether the recent economic recovery in France and Germany has maintained its traction from January and February, with the latest flash PMI’s for March in the manufacturing and services sectors. |
| France in particular saw a strong performance in the services sector in February, and this looks like it could well be sustained in March with only a slight slowdown expected to 56.2 from 56.4. Manufacturing remains a slight laggard, but is still expected to come in at 52.4. | France in particular saw a strong performance in the services sector in February, and this looks like it could well be sustained in March with only a slight slowdown expected to 56.2 from 56.4. Manufacturing remains a slight laggard, but is still expected to come in at 52.4. |
| German activity is expected to show similarly steady numbers of 56.6 for manufacturing and 54.5 for services. | German activity is expected to show similarly steady numbers of 56.6 for manufacturing and 54.5 for services. |
| Later come US durable goods orders. Meanwhile here are the opening calls for European markets, courtesy of IG: | Later come US durable goods orders. Meanwhile here are the opening calls for European markets, courtesy of IG: |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7345 up 4$DAX 12047 up 8$CAC 5027 down 6$IBEX 10315 down 10$MIB 20147 down 20 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7345 up 4$DAX 12047 up 8$CAC 5027 down 6$IBEX 10315 down 10$MIB 20147 down 20 |