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Emmanuel Macron's party leads exit poll for parliamentary elections Emmanuel Macron's party leads exit poll for parliamentary elections
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The French president Emmanuel Macron’s new centrist party is within reach of an overwhelming majority in parliament after exit polls showed it topping the poll with 32% in the first round on Sunday, but with a low voter turnout.The French president Emmanuel Macron’s new centrist party is within reach of an overwhelming majority in parliament after exit polls showed it topping the poll with 32% in the first round on Sunday, but with a low voter turnout.
Macron’s fledgling centrist movement La République En Marche (Republic on the Move) – set up just more than a year ago as a vehicle for him to win the presidency – could, with its centrist allies, go from zero to as many as 430 seats in the 577-seat French national assembly. This would be one of the biggest majorities in post-war France.Macron’s fledgling centrist movement La République En Marche (Republic on the Move) – set up just more than a year ago as a vehicle for him to win the presidency – could, with its centrist allies, go from zero to as many as 430 seats in the 577-seat French national assembly. This would be one of the biggest majorities in post-war France.
Macron needs a solid parliamentary majority if he is to put in place his plans to loosen France’s extensive labour laws and change the French welfare system on pensions and unemployment benefits. His parliamentary candidates include a historic number of total newcomers to parliamentary politics, from an ex-bullfighter to a former fighter pilot, a mathematician and an anti-corruption magistrate as well as former local politicians – whose key campaign argument was “give the new president a chance”.Macron needs a solid parliamentary majority if he is to put in place his plans to loosen France’s extensive labour laws and change the French welfare system on pensions and unemployment benefits. His parliamentary candidates include a historic number of total newcomers to parliamentary politics, from an ex-bullfighter to a former fighter pilot, a mathematician and an anti-corruption magistrate as well as former local politicians – whose key campaign argument was “give the new president a chance”.
If Macron’s party does go on to win a landslide victory in the final round on 18 June, it will redraw the landscape of French politics. The traditional left and right parties that dominated parliament for decades were knocked out in the presidential election first round and their support is projected to dwindle to historic lows. Warnings by the rightwing party, Les Républicains, and the Socialist party that it would be unhealthy for democracy if Macron’s party won a “monopoly” did not appear to be heeded by voters.If Macron’s party does go on to win a landslide victory in the final round on 18 June, it will redraw the landscape of French politics. The traditional left and right parties that dominated parliament for decades were knocked out in the presidential election first round and their support is projected to dwindle to historic lows. Warnings by the rightwing party, Les Républicains, and the Socialist party that it would be unhealthy for democracy if Macron’s party won a “monopoly” did not appear to be heeded by voters.
On the right, Les Républicains and its allies were estimated by Ipsos-Steria to take between 85 and 125 seats. This would make them the biggest group in parliament after Macron’s group. But they could lose 100 of their current seats. The Socialist party and its allies were forecast to fare badly, potentially losing more than 200 seats and ending up with just 20 to 35 seats. On the right, Les Républicains and its allies are estimated by Ipsos-Steria to take between 85 and 125 seats. This would make them the biggest group in parliament after Macron’s group. But they could lose 100 of their current seats. The Socialist party had a historically bad night, expected to lose more than 200 seats and end up with just 20 to 35 seats with its allies. The Socialist party leader, Jean-Christophe Cambadélis was knocked out of the race for a Paris parliament seat he had held for 20 years.
Abstention was high, with only 40.75% of voters turning out by 5pm – less than in previous parliamentary votes. Macron’s supporters will now be fighting to get voters out in the final round on 18 June to avoid accusations by political opponents that his mandate was weakened by abstentions. Speculation began on why voters had not turned out. France has faced a series of elections over the past 10 months, from the party primaries on the right and left, to the two-round presidential vote. For weeks, all pollsters had predicted a foregone conclusion of huge parliamentary gains for Macron. Abstention was at a record high, expected to be over 50%. Macron’s supporters will now be fighting to get voters out in the final round on 18 June to avoid accusations by political opponents that his mandate was weakened by abstention. Speculation began on why voters had not turned out. France has faced a series of elections over the past 10 months, from the party primaries on the right and left, to the two-round presidential vote. For weeks, all pollsters had predicted a foregone conclusion of huge parliamentary gains for Macron.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s new hard-left movement, France Unbowed, was projected to win between 11 and 21 seats – potentially able to form a parliamentary group that requires 15 deputies, but behind the Socialists, which they had wanted to beat. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s new hard-left movement, France Unbowed, was projected to win between 11 and 21 seats – potentially able to form a parliamentary group that requires 15 deputies. Mélenchon himself will go through to a second-round run-off in a Marseille constituency, where the Socialist candidate was eliminated in the first-round. Mélenchon warned that abstention had been high among young voters, calling on them to turn out in the final round to stop Macron having “full power”.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National, which came second in the presidential election with 10.6m votes, was projected to win between three and 11 seats – with about 14% of the vote. Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National, which came second in the presidential election with 10.6m votes, was projected to win between three and 11 seats – with about 14% of the vote, which the party said was “disappointing”.
FN has two seats in parliament and was seeking to reach the 15-seat threshold to form a parliamentary group that would give it more speaking time and access to top roles within the assembly. A year ago that was being presented by the party as all but inevitable. But the far-right is likely to put part of the blame on the voting process, saying that without proportional representation, the odds are stacked against it. The party has been riven by internal divisions since Le Pen’s much-criticised presidential campaign, with her strategist and deputy party president Florian Philippot setting up his own cell within the party, Les Patriotes. The FN currently has two seats in parliament and had been seeking to reach the 15-seat threshold to form a parliamentary group that would give it more speaking time and access to top roles within the assembly. A year ago that was being presented by the party as all but inevitable. The far-right put part of the blame for its low score on the voting process, saying that without proportional representation, the odds were stacked against it. The party has been riven by internal divisions since Le Pen’s much-criticised presidential campaign, with her strategist and deputy party president Florian Philippot setting up his own grouping within the party, Les Patriotes.
Macron’s political movement had faced setbacks during the campaign but they hadn’t appeared initially to have affected its overall tally. The small centrist MoDem party, a key Macron ally with ministers in government, was placed under a preliminary investigation on suspicion of employing fake parliamentary assistants in the European parliament. The party responded that it had “respected all rules”. Le Pen, who is attempting for the fourth time to win a parliament seat, topped the poll in the northern former coal-mining heartlands around Hénin-Beaumont in the Pas-de-Calais, and will go through to the second round, well-placed to win.
Macron’s political movement had faced setbacks during the campaign but they didn’t appear to have affected its overall tally. The small centrist MoDem party, a key Macron ally with ministers in government, was placed under a preliminary investigation on suspicion of employing fake parliamentary assistants in the European parliament. The party responded that it had “respected all rules”.
On the same day that Macron’s new government unveiled new ethics proposals to clean up politics, French prosecutors also announced a preliminary investigation into a property deal several years ago involving the partner of a minister and key Macron supporter, Richard Ferrand, who denied any wrongdoing.On the same day that Macron’s new government unveiled new ethics proposals to clean up politics, French prosecutors also announced a preliminary investigation into a property deal several years ago involving the partner of a minister and key Macron supporter, Richard Ferrand, who denied any wrongdoing.
The expected low turnout, if confirmed, would narrow the second-round field, because candidates need the support of 12.5% of registered voters to qualify for the final round. The expected low turnout narrowed the second-round field, because candidates need the support of 12.5% of registered voters to qualify for the final round.