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Eurozone jobless rate hits fresh eight-year low as recovery strengthens - business live Eurozone jobless rate hits fresh eight-year low as recovery strengthens - business live
(35 minutes later)
12.04pm BST
12:04
The threat of US sanctions on Venezuela has alarmed investors, sending them racing to ditch bonds issued by Caracas.
The price of long-term Venezuelan dollar bonds fell almost one cent, according to Reuters data.
Bonds issued by state oil firm Petróleos de Venezuela also took a tumble. It buys US light crude oil, and mixes it with its own crude to create a product for export - so any sanctions would hurt the company.
Meanwhile, the European Union has added its voice to the chorus of concerns over Sunday’s vote:
Venezuela - EU has 'grave doubts election result can be recognised', says held in 'doubtful, often violent circumstances'
11.30am BST11.30am BST
11:3011:30
Eurozone jobs: What the experts sayEurozone jobs: What the experts say
Marc Brütsch, chief economist at Swiss Life, says the drop in eurozone unemployment shows that Europe’s economy is strengthening:Marc Brütsch, chief economist at Swiss Life, says the drop in eurozone unemployment shows that Europe’s economy is strengthening:
#Eurozone recovery reaches labour market. #Unemployment rate falls to lowest sine financial crisis #Economy #Euroland https://t.co/DJjSeLYq9Z#Eurozone recovery reaches labour market. #Unemployment rate falls to lowest sine financial crisis #Economy #Euroland https://t.co/DJjSeLYq9Z
Ken Odeluga of City Index says the data has cheered investors.Ken Odeluga of City Index says the data has cheered investors.
#EUR starts week on front foot on raft of strong data, incl. unexpected fall in Eurozone unemployment, better than forecast #inflation ^KO#EUR starts week on front foot on raft of strong data, incl. unexpected fall in Eurozone unemployment, better than forecast #inflation ^KO
But Craig Erlam of OANDA points out that the eurozone has plenty of room for improvement:But Craig Erlam of OANDA points out that the eurozone has plenty of room for improvement:
Unemployment at 9.1% is still extremely high and when you break that down by country, it becomes much higher again in some places. Core inflation is also only at 1.3% which is still well below the ECB’s target and with the currency appreciating strongly this year, downward pressures here will continue to build.Unemployment at 9.1% is still extremely high and when you break that down by country, it becomes much higher again in some places. Core inflation is also only at 1.3% which is still well below the ECB’s target and with the currency appreciating strongly this year, downward pressures here will continue to build.
The central bank should therefore tread very carefully when it comes to removing stimulus, as I expect it will.The central bank should therefore tread very carefully when it comes to removing stimulus, as I expect it will.
10.40am BST10.40am BST
10:4010:40
In another encouraging sign, youth unemployment across the eurozone has fallen by 400,000 over the last year.In another encouraging sign, youth unemployment across the eurozone has fallen by 400,000 over the last year.
There are now 2.588 million young people out of work in the euro area, or 18.7% of the youth population, down from 21% in June 2016.There are now 2.588 million young people out of work in the euro area, or 18.7% of the youth population, down from 21% in June 2016.
The lowest youth unemployment rate is in Germany (6.7%), while the highest were recorded in Greece (45.5% in April 2017), Spain (39.2%) and Italy (35.4%).The lowest youth unemployment rate is in Germany (6.7%), while the highest were recorded in Greece (45.5% in April 2017), Spain (39.2%) and Italy (35.4%).
10.11am BST10.11am BST
10:1110:11
Eurozone unemployment rate hits fresh eight-year lowEurozone unemployment rate hits fresh eight-year low
Boom! Unemployment across the eurozone has fallen to a new eight-year low.Boom! Unemployment across the eurozone has fallen to a new eight-year low.
The euro area jobless rate has dropped to 9.1% in June, down from 9.2% in May. This level was last seen in February 2009, after the financial crisis drove Europe into recession.The euro area jobless rate has dropped to 9.1% in June, down from 9.2% in May. This level was last seen in February 2009, after the financial crisis drove Europe into recession.
It indicates that Europe’s economy is continuing to strengthen, on the back of solid growth figures from France and Spain last week.It indicates that Europe’s economy is continuing to strengthen, on the back of solid growth figures from France and Spain last week.
Unemployment in the wider European Union was stable at 7.7%, the lowest since December 2008.Unemployment in the wider European Union was stable at 7.7%, the lowest since December 2008.
Despite this recovery, the eurozone’s jobless rate is still much higher than the UK’s 4.5% or the US, where it is just 4.4%.Despite this recovery, the eurozone’s jobless rate is still much higher than the UK’s 4.5% or the US, where it is just 4.4%.
There are also stark regional differences, between Northern and Southern Europe:There are also stark regional differences, between Northern and Southern Europe:
Eurostat has more details:Eurostat has more details:
Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in June 2017 were recorded in the Czech Republic (2,9%), Germany (3.8%) and Malta (4.1%).Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in June 2017 were recorded in the Czech Republic (2,9%), Germany (3.8%) and Malta (4.1%).
The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (21.7% in April 2017) and Spain (17.1%).The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (21.7% in April 2017) and Spain (17.1%).
Separate data shows that the eurozone’s inflation rate remained at 1.3% in July, some way below the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2%.Separate data shows that the eurozone’s inflation rate remained at 1.3% in July, some way below the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2%.
9.50am BST9.50am BST
09:5009:50
UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit statsUK mortgage approvals and consumer credit stats
Newsflash: Back in the UK, the number of mortgages being approved has dipped to a nine-month low.Newsflash: Back in the UK, the number of mortgages being approved has dipped to a nine-month low.
A total of 64,684 new home loans were agreed in June, new figures from the Bank of England show, down from 65,109 in May. That’s the lowest since September 2016.A total of 64,684 new home loans were agreed in June, new figures from the Bank of England show, down from 65,109 in May. That’s the lowest since September 2016.
The figures also show that the public continued to rack up credit. Net consumer credit rose by £1.458bn in June from £1.769bn in May. That means consumer credit is growing by around 10% per year.The figures also show that the public continued to rack up credit. Net consumer credit rose by £1.458bn in June from £1.769bn in May. That means consumer credit is growing by around 10% per year.
Economist Rupert Seggins has tweeted the key charts:Economist Rupert Seggins has tweeted the key charts:
UK mortgage approvals in June continue to point to fairly flat rather than falling house prices in the next 6 months. pic.twitter.com/HMvWQ5SvBaUK mortgage approvals in June continue to point to fairly flat rather than falling house prices in the next 6 months. pic.twitter.com/HMvWQ5SvBa
UK consumer credit rises again, to 19.7% of household income in Q2. Most of the push has come from personal loans & overdrafts. pic.twitter.com/5C8YqxihDDUK consumer credit rises again, to 19.7% of household income in Q2. Most of the push has come from personal loans & overdrafts. pic.twitter.com/5C8YqxihDD
9.29am BST9.29am BST
09:2909:29
As this chart shows, Venezuela is the third-largest exporter of oil into the US market:As this chart shows, Venezuela is the third-largest exporter of oil into the US market:
The U.S. is weighing new sanctions against Venezuela by targeting its vital oil industry https://t.co/cHC3S4K6EF vía @WSJ pic.twitter.com/1BZzXP4hQKThe U.S. is weighing new sanctions against Venezuela by targeting its vital oil industry https://t.co/cHC3S4K6EF vía @WSJ pic.twitter.com/1BZzXP4hQK
9.28am BST9.28am BST
09:2809:28
Venezuela’s public finances have been badly hurt by the fall in the oil price a couple of years ago.Venezuela’s public finances have been badly hurt by the fall in the oil price a couple of years ago.
That loss of revenue has fuelled the country’s political and economic crisis, as RBC Capital Markets explain:That loss of revenue has fuelled the country’s political and economic crisis, as RBC Capital Markets explain:
Many petro states have seen their finances severely strained by the oil price slump. However, no country has experienced as fast and furious fall as Venezuela has, and it now appears poised to earn the dubious distinction of being the first to fully fail. The statistics are staggering.Many petro states have seen their finances severely strained by the oil price slump. However, no country has experienced as fast and furious fall as Venezuela has, and it now appears poised to earn the dubious distinction of being the first to fully fail. The statistics are staggering.
By the end of the 2017, the Venezuelan economy will likely have shrunk by 30% in three years. The IMF forecasts that inflation will average 720% this year and top 2,000% in 2018. Half of the population is living in extreme poverty and health officials are even starting to warn of famine if current trends continue, according to the International Crisis Group. Three months of daily demonstrations and strikes have left more than a hundred dead and thousands injured. Thousands more are languishing in jail.By the end of the 2017, the Venezuelan economy will likely have shrunk by 30% in three years. The IMF forecasts that inflation will average 720% this year and top 2,000% in 2018. Half of the population is living in extreme poverty and health officials are even starting to warn of famine if current trends continue, according to the International Crisis Group. Three months of daily demonstrations and strikes have left more than a hundred dead and thousands injured. Thousands more are languishing in jail.
9.10am BST9.10am BST
09:1009:10
Venezuela’s new assembly will give President Nicolas Maduro and his supporters “near-total” control of the levers of power, say Associated Press.Venezuela’s new assembly will give President Nicolas Maduro and his supporters “near-total” control of the levers of power, say Associated Press.
AP also report that opposition parties don’t accept the government’s claim that over 40% of the public voted:AP also report that opposition parties don’t accept the government’s claim that over 40% of the public voted:
Council president Tibisay Lucena announced just before midnight that turnout in Sunday’s vote was 41.53 percent, or 8,089,320 people.Council president Tibisay Lucena announced just before midnight that turnout in Sunday’s vote was 41.53 percent, or 8,089,320 people.
The count was met with mockery and anger from members of the opposition, who said they believed between 2 million and 3 million people voted. One well-respected independent analysis said 3.6 million appeared to have voted.The count was met with mockery and anger from members of the opposition, who said they believed between 2 million and 3 million people voted. One well-respected independent analysis said 3.6 million appeared to have voted.
The electoral council’s vote counts in the past have traditionally been seen as reliable and generally accurate, but Sunday’s announcement appeared certain to escalate the polarization and political conflict paralyzing the country.The electoral council’s vote counts in the past have traditionally been seen as reliable and generally accurate, but Sunday’s announcement appeared certain to escalate the polarization and political conflict paralyzing the country.
9.00am BST9.00am BST
09:0009:00
UK foreign office minister Sir Alan Duncan has tweeted that he’s “appalled” by the events in Venezuela:UK foreign office minister Sir Alan Duncan has tweeted that he’s “appalled” by the events in Venezuela:
Appalled by sham-democratic Constituent Assembly in #Venezuela, and yet more tragic deaths. Urgent negotiation needed to tackle crisis.Appalled by sham-democratic Constituent Assembly in #Venezuela, and yet more tragic deaths. Urgent negotiation needed to tackle crisis.
8.44am BST8.44am BST
08:4408:44
My colleague Sibylla Brodzinsky has written about the deadly clashes on the streets of Venezuela during Sunday’s voting.My colleague Sibylla Brodzinsky has written about the deadly clashes on the streets of Venezuela during Sunday’s voting.
Many voters decided against taking part in an election the opposition said would turn the country into a full-fledged dictatorship.Many voters decided against taking part in an election the opposition said would turn the country into a full-fledged dictatorship.
As many as 14 people died in the protests, according to opposition leader Henrique Capriles, and the prosecutor’s office confirmed at least six people were killed by gunfire, including one national guardsman. Seven policemen were wounded in an explosion in the opposition stronghold neighbourhood of Altamira.As many as 14 people died in the protests, according to opposition leader Henrique Capriles, and the prosecutor’s office confirmed at least six people were killed by gunfire, including one national guardsman. Seven policemen were wounded in an explosion in the opposition stronghold neighbourhood of Altamira.
However, the leader of the ruling socialist party, Jorge Rodriguez, said there was “not one death related to the voting process today”, underscoring the contrasting versions of the day presented by the two clashing sides.However, the leader of the ruling socialist party, Jorge Rodriguez, said there was “not one death related to the voting process today”, underscoring the contrasting versions of the day presented by the two clashing sides.
8.41am BST8.41am BST
08:4108:41
This chart shows how the Venezuela crisis has driven oil to a two-month high:This chart shows how the Venezuela crisis has driven oil to a two-month high:
8.24am BST8.24am BST
08:2408:24
Oil hits two-month high on Venezuela sanctions threatOil hits two-month high on Venezuela sanctions threat
The oil price is rallying this morning, following reports that the US government could hit Venezuela with sanctions.The oil price is rallying this morning, following reports that the US government could hit Venezuela with sanctions.
Brent crude has jumped to $52.85 per barrel, its highest level since late May, and US crude is back over the $50/barrel mark.Brent crude has jumped to $52.85 per barrel, its highest level since late May, and US crude is back over the $50/barrel mark.
The surge comes after US officials expressed anger over a controversial election held in Venezuela last weekend to choose delegates for its assembly, and to rewrite its constitution.The surge comes after US officials expressed anger over a controversial election held in Venezuela last weekend to choose delegates for its assembly, and to rewrite its constitution.
Critics claimed that the vote was designed to shore up president Nicolas Maduro’s government. It was marred by violent clashes between opposition supporters and troops, with at least three people killed over the weekend.Critics claimed that the vote was designed to shore up president Nicolas Maduro’s government. It was marred by violent clashes between opposition supporters and troops, with at least three people killed over the weekend.
Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, has already warned Maduro that the result isn’t acceptable.Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, has already warned Maduro that the result isn’t acceptable.
Maduro’s sham election is another step toward dictatorship. We won't accept an illegit govt. The Venezuelan ppl & democracy will prevail.Maduro’s sham election is another step toward dictatorship. We won't accept an illegit govt. The Venezuelan ppl & democracy will prevail.
US State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert also warned:US State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert also warned:
“We will continue to take strong and swift actions against the architects of authoritarianism in Venezuela, including those who participate in the National Constituent Assembly as a result of today’s flawed election,”“We will continue to take strong and swift actions against the architects of authoritarianism in Venezuela, including those who participate in the National Constituent Assembly as a result of today’s flawed election,”
“We encourage governments in the hemisphere and around the world to take strong action to hold accountable those who undermine democracy, deny human rights,bear responsibility for violence and repression, or engage in corrupt practices.“We encourage governments in the hemisphere and around the world to take strong action to hold accountable those who undermine democracy, deny human rights,bear responsibility for violence and repression, or engage in corrupt practices.
And a formal US response is expected soon, with officials briefing that they could impose sanctions on Venezuela’s vital oil sector this week.And a formal US response is expected soon, with officials briefing that they could impose sanctions on Venezuela’s vital oil sector this week.
Reuters has more details:Reuters has more details:
The measures, which could be announced as early as Monday, are not expected to include a ban on Venezuelan oil shipments to the United States -- one of the harshest options -- but could block sale of lighter U.S. crude that Venezuela mixes with its heavy crude and then exports, the officials told Reuters.The measures, which could be announced as early as Monday, are not expected to include a ban on Venezuelan oil shipments to the United States -- one of the harshest options -- but could block sale of lighter U.S. crude that Venezuela mixes with its heavy crude and then exports, the officials told Reuters.
More reaction to follow...More reaction to follow...
7.51am BST7.51am BST
07:5107:51
The agenda: UK and eurozone data in focusThe agenda: UK and eurozone data in focus
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Today we get a new healthcheck on Britain’s economy, with new figures showing how much new credit was lapped up by consumer last month, and how many people took out mortgages.Today we get a new healthcheck on Britain’s economy, with new figures showing how much new credit was lapped up by consumer last month, and how many people took out mortgages.
With concerns over Britain’s economy mounting, City investors will scrutinise the data for signs that cash-strapped households are taking too many risks.With concerns over Britain’s economy mounting, City investors will scrutinise the data for signs that cash-strapped households are taking too many risks.
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets has the City predictions:Michael Hewson of CMC Markets has the City predictions:
Mortgage approvals for June are set to remain steady at 65k, while net lending is expected to slow down a touch from the numbers seen in May, as declining consumer confidence and rising inflation squeezes wages, not to mention the uncertainty created by the June election result.Mortgage approvals for June are set to remain steady at 65k, while net lending is expected to slow down a touch from the numbers seen in May, as declining consumer confidence and rising inflation squeezes wages, not to mention the uncertainty created by the June election result.
The main event of the morning, though, could be the latest eurozone inflation and jobs report. They could show that Europe’s recovery is continues, with unemployment tipped to hit a new post-crisis low of 9.2% in June.The main event of the morning, though, could be the latest eurozone inflation and jobs report. They could show that Europe’s recovery is continues, with unemployment tipped to hit a new post-crisis low of 9.2% in June.
Royal Bank of Canada’s analysts warn that Europe’s labour market still has black spots:Royal Bank of Canada’s analysts warn that Europe’s labour market still has black spots:
The pace of improvement is still gradual, due in particular to the continued sluggish performance of the French and Italian labour markets, meaning that the considerable degree of labour market slack that exists in the euro area continues to be absorbed only slowly.The pace of improvement is still gradual, due in particular to the continued sluggish performance of the French and Italian labour markets, meaning that the considerable degree of labour market slack that exists in the euro area continues to be absorbed only slowly.
Eurozone inflation, meanwhile, is expected to remain at 1.3% in July -- not high enough to worry the European Central Bank unduly.Eurozone inflation, meanwhile, is expected to remain at 1.3% in July -- not high enough to worry the European Central Bank unduly.
Also, the Bank of England will make a final attempt to avert its first strike in half a century. The central bank will meet with union officials today, with a three-day walkout over pay due to start tomorrow:Also, the Bank of England will make a final attempt to avert its first strike in half a century. The central bank will meet with union officials today, with a three-day walkout over pay due to start tomorrow:
Last-minute talks bid to halt first Bank of England strike in 50 years https://t.co/G84DRjU0qfLast-minute talks bid to halt first Bank of England strike in 50 years https://t.co/G84DRjU0qf
The agendaThe agenda
9.30am BST: UK consumer credit and mortgage approvals for June9.30am BST: UK consumer credit and mortgage approvals for June
10am BST: Eurozone unemployment figures for June10am BST: Eurozone unemployment figures for June
10am BST: Eurozone inflation data for July10am BST: Eurozone inflation data for July
3pm BST: US pending home sales3pm BST: US pending home sales