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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/aug/24/pound-dips-again-ahead-of-uk-gdp-figures-business-live
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| Pound dips again ahead of UK GDP figures - business live | Pound dips again ahead of UK GDP figures - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.16am BST | |
| 08:16 | |
| Back with the UK car production figures: | |
| 8.12am BST | |
| 08:12 | |
| UK car output jumps in July after seven months of decline | |
| Britain’s car manufacturers geared up production last month ahead of the summer shutdown and a number plate change in September. | |
| According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), UK car output rose by 7.8% last month after seven successive months of decline. Exports grew by 5.3%. Car production has now passed the one million mark this year, although this is down 1.6% compared to the same time last year. Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: | |
| UK car production lines stepped up a gear in July, as usual bringing forward some production to help manage demand ahead of September and routine summer factory shutdowns. As the timing and length of these manufacturing pauses can shift each year, market performance comparisons for July and August should always be treated with caution, but as long as the economic conditions at home and abroad stay broadly stable we expect new car production to remain in line with expectations for the rest of 2017. | |
| Very wise to treat the figures with caution. | |
| On Wednesday the SMMT embarrassingly had to reissue its second quarter used car figures. It originally said used car sales had slumped by 13.5%. In a revision it said that was actually a mere 0.7% decline. It blamed “an issue” with an algorithm used to calculate the data. | |
| 8.08am BST | |
| 08:08 | |
| Dixons Carphone shares lose a fifth of their value | |
| BREAKING: | |
| Dixons Carphone shares have plunged 22% in early trading following its profit warning. | |
| The shares have now almost halved so far this year. | |
| 7.54am BST | |
| 07:54 | |
| A little more detail on the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, courtesy of RBC Capital Markets: | |
| The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins later tonight when the programme for this year’s gathering will be released (at 6pm local time, 1am UK time). The main address of interest to European markets, that of ECB president Mario Draghi, has already been confirmed by the ECB for 8pm (BST) on Friday evening. | |
| For today, there is only one ECB speaker of note, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco, who will speak later this evening. | |
| 7.48am BST | |
| 07:48 | |
| Julia Kollewe | |
| Here’s our story on the Dixons Carphone profit warning: | |
| Dixons Carphone has warned of a steep fall in profits this year, as customers hold on to their phones for longer after the weaker pound pushed up the price of new handsets. | |
| In an unscheduled trading statement, the company said it expects profits in the range of £360 to 440m this year, down from £501m last year. Analysts had on average been forecasting a profit of £495m. | |
| Dixons said the UK mobile phone market had become tougher in the last few months. Due to currency fluctuations – including the sharp fall in the pound since last year’s Brexit vote – handsets have become more expensive, so people are keeping their phones longer before upgrading to a new model. | |
| Chief executive Seb James said: “We have seen an increased number of people hold on to their phones for longer and while it is too early to say whether important upcoming handset launches or the natural life cycle of phones will reverse this trend, we now believe it is prudent to plan on the basis that the overall market demand will not correct itself this year.” | |
| More here: | |
| 7.40am BST | 7.40am BST |
| 07:40 | 07:40 |
| Dixons Carphone warns on profits | Dixons Carphone warns on profits |
| One share likely to do badly when trading begins is Dixons Carphone. | One share likely to do badly when trading begins is Dixons Carphone. |
| The electronics and phone retailer has downgraded its profit expectations for the year, blaming tougher conditions in the mobile phone market, including peoply holding on to their phones for longer. | The electronics and phone retailer has downgraded its profit expectations for the year, blaming tougher conditions in the mobile phone market, including peoply holding on to their phones for longer. |
| It said profits were likely to be between £360m and £440m, down on the average forecast of £495m (according to Thomson Reuters). | It said profits were likely to be between £360m and £440m, down on the average forecast of £495m (according to Thomson Reuters). |
| The company’s chief executive tweeted: | The company’s chief executive tweeted: |
| Announcing Q1 trading and a change to forecasts today but importantly we’ve grown revenues, share and profitability in all core markets | Announcing Q1 trading and a change to forecasts today but importantly we’ve grown revenues, share and profitability in all core markets |
| But retail analyst Nick Bubb was not impressed: | But retail analyst Nick Bubb was not impressed: |
| The profit warning from Dixons Carphone (driven by the mobile phone business...) will go down like a lead balloon in the City today... https://t.co/olMI2rrMMa | The profit warning from Dixons Carphone (driven by the mobile phone business...) will go down like a lead balloon in the City today... https://t.co/olMI2rrMMa |
| 7.36am BST | 7.36am BST |
| 07:36 | 07:36 |
| European markets set for mixed opening | European markets set for mixed opening |
| It looks like being a caution start to trading for European markets: | It looks like being a caution start to trading for European markets: |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7386 up 3$DAX 12174 down 0$CAC 5116 up 1$IBEX 10329 down 9$MIB 21599 down 21 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7386 up 3$DAX 12174 down 0$CAC 5116 up 1$IBEX 10329 down 9$MIB 21599 down 21 |
| 7.34am BST | 7.34am BST |
| 07:34 | 07:34 |
| Agenda: UK GDP and retail survey in focus | Agenda: UK GDP and retail survey in focus |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the latest news from the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the latest news from the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Central bankers will be gathering at the Jackson Hole mountain resort in the US later for the start a symposium to discuss the key economic issues of the day. The big events will be on Friday, with European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen both due to speak. Markets are likely to be nervous ahead of any hints from either about their future policy, whether Draghi hints at an end to the bank’s bond buying programme or Yellen suggests further rate rises are on the way. | Central bankers will be gathering at the Jackson Hole mountain resort in the US later for the start a symposium to discuss the key economic issues of the day. The big events will be on Friday, with European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen both due to speak. Markets are likely to be nervous ahead of any hints from either about their future policy, whether Draghi hints at an end to the bank’s bond buying programme or Yellen suggests further rate rises are on the way. |
| Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: | Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: |
| The markets believe that the ECB is on course to begin tapering their stimulus program, and the only unknown is the timing of such measures. Whether Draghi likes it or not the ECB will have to cut back on stimulus simply because the outstanding bonds available to buy is diminishing rapidly, and the continued expansion in economic activity and factory growth points to a fairly resilient recovery in Europe. | The markets believe that the ECB is on course to begin tapering their stimulus program, and the only unknown is the timing of such measures. Whether Draghi likes it or not the ECB will have to cut back on stimulus simply because the outstanding bonds available to buy is diminishing rapidly, and the continued expansion in economic activity and factory growth points to a fairly resilient recovery in Europe. |
| The continuing rise in the euro - it is at an eight year high against the pound - causes problems for Draghi in terms of ending stimulus. Any hawkish hints from his Jackson Hole speech could see the euro rise further. | The continuing rise in the euro - it is at an eight year high against the pound - causes problems for Draghi in terms of ending stimulus. Any hawkish hints from his Jackson Hole speech could see the euro rise further. |
| Ahead of all that, today sees the latest revision to UK GDP. The economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, according to the initial estimate, up slightly from 0.2% in the first three months but lagging the likes of Germany. Hewson again: | Ahead of all that, today sees the latest revision to UK GDP. The economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, according to the initial estimate, up slightly from 0.2% in the first three months but lagging the likes of Germany. Hewson again: |
| Today’s second estimate will have the benefit of slightly more data to work with, however expectations are for an unchanged reading of 0.3%, with a moderate decline in business investment to 0.2% from 0.6%. | Today’s second estimate will have the benefit of slightly more data to work with, however expectations are for an unchanged reading of 0.3%, with a moderate decline in business investment to 0.2% from 0.6%. |
| Services once again are expected to make up the lion’s share of the expansion with 0.5%, as the weak pound prompts resilience from overseas visitors in the travel and leisure sector. | Services once again are expected to make up the lion’s share of the expansion with 0.5%, as the weak pound prompts resilience from overseas visitors in the travel and leisure sector. |
| The main puzzle remains around the divergence from private survey data, and the ONS numbers which have been uniformly negative. | The main puzzle remains around the divergence from private survey data, and the ONS numbers which have been uniformly negative. |
| For all of this year these independent surveys have been much more optimistic, from the likes of the CBI and the Markit, and quite frankly better when it comes to reporting the improvement in order books in terms of surging export markets, as well as rising employment levels in the sector. | For all of this year these independent surveys have been much more optimistic, from the likes of the CBI and the Markit, and quite frankly better when it comes to reporting the improvement in order books in terms of surging export markets, as well as rising employment levels in the sector. |
| There are also CBI retail sales figures for August, and in the US, weekly jobless claims. | There are also CBI retail sales figures for August, and in the US, weekly jobless claims. |
| We have already had a profit warning from Dixons Carphone, and UK car manufacturing figures, of which more shortly. | We have already had a profit warning from Dixons Carphone, and UK car manufacturing figures, of which more shortly. |
| As for the pound, it is currently at €1.0833 against the euro, down 0.06% on the day, and 0.13% lower against the dollar at $1.2781. | |
| The agenda: | The agenda: |
| 9.30 BST UK second quarter GDP | 9.30 BST UK second quarter GDP |
| 11.00 BST CBI retail figures | 11.00 BST CBI retail figures |
| 1.30 BST US weekly jobless claims | 1.30 BST US weekly jobless claims |
| Updated | |
| at 7.57am BST |