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| China’s New Antipollution Push Could Cool Its Growth Engine | China’s New Antipollution Push Could Cool Its Growth Engine |
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| BEIJING — Through the last four decades, China has achieved breathtaking economic growth at the cost of smoggy skies, fetid streams and lakes of dying fish. | BEIJING — Through the last four decades, China has achieved breathtaking economic growth at the cost of smoggy skies, fetid streams and lakes of dying fish. |
| Now China is undertaking one of its most extensive efforts yet to crack down on corporate polluters, an effort that could be felt economically and in world markets. | Now China is undertaking one of its most extensive efforts yet to crack down on corporate polluters, an effort that could be felt economically and in world markets. |
| Cities across China have stepped up sending squads of inspectors to steel mills, coal-fired power plants and other businesses, and ordered offenders to clean up their operations or risk being shut down. On Aug. 21, the environmental authorities ordered more than two dozen cities in northern China, including many main steel production centers, to reduce air pollution by 15 percent this winter. | Cities across China have stepped up sending squads of inspectors to steel mills, coal-fired power plants and other businesses, and ordered offenders to clean up their operations or risk being shut down. On Aug. 21, the environmental authorities ordered more than two dozen cities in northern China, including many main steel production centers, to reduce air pollution by 15 percent this winter. |
| Even tougher measures will be coming, Li Ganjie, China’s minister for environmental protection, said Monday at a news conference held in conjunction with the Communist Party congress, a twice-per-decade event at which the party selects new leaders to tackle its problems. | Even tougher measures will be coming, Li Ganjie, China’s minister for environmental protection, said Monday at a news conference held in conjunction with the Communist Party congress, a twice-per-decade event at which the party selects new leaders to tackle its problems. |
| The campaign, which started two years ago but picked up speed in recent months, is so broad that it is starting to affect markets. Some economists have begun to warn of a possible modest slowing of the entire Chinese economy this winter. | The campaign, which started two years ago but picked up speed in recent months, is so broad that it is starting to affect markets. Some economists have begun to warn of a possible modest slowing of the entire Chinese economy this winter. |
| Officials sought Monday to reassure the Chinese public and businesses that the pollution crackdown would help clean up the country without disrupting growth. | Officials sought Monday to reassure the Chinese public and businesses that the pollution crackdown would help clean up the country without disrupting growth. |
| “It is impossible that such efforts will not have any impact on enterprises,” Mr. Li said. “But in the long run, and from the macro perspective, the impact will be minimal.” | “It is impossible that such efforts will not have any impact on enterprises,” Mr. Li said. “But in the long run, and from the macro perspective, the impact will be minimal.” |
| Pollution figures strongly into the broader debate over the cost of growth in China. O in China are under pressure to keep the economy revving to provide good jobs for its young people and for rural residents moving into cities, among others. But stimulating growth has compounded China’s debt problems, added to its pollution woes and created other complications that Beijing must address. | |
| If successful, the antipollution campaign could produce bluer skies and cleaner water across China, with potential health benefits for the country’s 1.3 billion people. | If successful, the antipollution campaign could produce bluer skies and cleaner water across China, with potential health benefits for the country’s 1.3 billion people. |
| “For those areas that have suffered ecological damage, their leaders and cadres will be held responsible for life,” said Yang Weimin, the deputy director of the Communist Party’s Office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs. “Our people will be able to see stars at night and hear birds chirp.” | “For those areas that have suffered ecological damage, their leaders and cadres will be held responsible for life,” said Yang Weimin, the deputy director of the Communist Party’s Office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs. “Our people will be able to see stars at night and hear birds chirp.” |
| But the effort could have a cost as well. Economists at Société Générale, a French bank, predicted in a recent research note that environmental restrictions could shave two-tenths of a percent off economic growth. | But the effort could have a cost as well. Economists at Société Générale, a French bank, predicted in a recent research note that environmental restrictions could shave two-tenths of a percent off economic growth. |
| “Modestly slower growth will be a necessary sacrifice for maintaining social stability over the medium term,” it said. | “Modestly slower growth will be a necessary sacrifice for maintaining social stability over the medium term,” it said. |
| Global prices for iron ore, a crucial material for making steel, have slumped in part on expectations that many Chinese steel mills will have to close temporarily this winter. | Global prices for iron ore, a crucial material for making steel, have slumped in part on expectations that many Chinese steel mills will have to close temporarily this winter. |
| China is so important to the global economy that a campaign against pollution here could affect economies around the world, particularly iron ore exporters. Economists in Australia are already starting to become concerned. | China is so important to the global economy that a campaign against pollution here could affect economies around the world, particularly iron ore exporters. Economists in Australia are already starting to become concerned. |
| Australia “is absolutely dependent on China — that’s true of iron ore prices, but it’s also true of Australia’s national income,” said Chris Richardson, the chief Australia economist for Deloitte, the global accounting firm. | Australia “is absolutely dependent on China — that’s true of iron ore prices, but it’s also true of Australia’s national income,” said Chris Richardson, the chief Australia economist for Deloitte, the global accounting firm. |
| Although China now leads the world in its installations of solar and wind power, it still relies on coal to generate three-quarters of its electricity. Electricity use by households is rising as more Chinese consumers buy air-conditioners and adopt the trappings of middle-class life. | Although China now leads the world in its installations of solar and wind power, it still relies on coal to generate three-quarters of its electricity. Electricity use by households is rising as more Chinese consumers buy air-conditioners and adopt the trappings of middle-class life. |
| Turning off electricity to residential customers to reduce pollution is politically unrealistic. That means steeper cuts may be necessary for industrial users. | Turning off electricity to residential customers to reduce pollution is politically unrealistic. That means steeper cuts may be necessary for industrial users. |
| Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the government-affiliated China Passenger Car Association, said in a telephone interview that the government had been inexorably tightening pollution standards. The country’s top priority has been shifting away from maximizing economic output and toward environmental protection, and companies must adapt, he said. | Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the government-affiliated China Passenger Car Association, said in a telephone interview that the government had been inexorably tightening pollution standards. The country’s top priority has been shifting away from maximizing economic output and toward environmental protection, and companies must adapt, he said. |
| “Auto companies have adequate profits,” he said. “They can withstand it, but their production schedules may be affected.” | “Auto companies have adequate profits,” he said. “They can withstand it, but their production schedules may be affected.” |
| The pollution effort’s impact on global markets is uncertain, and on Monday Chinese officials said they may be overreacting. | The pollution effort’s impact on global markets is uncertain, and on Monday Chinese officials said they may be overreacting. |
| Li Xinchuang, the deputy chairman of the government-affiliated China Steel Association, said Chinese production could continue undiminished if the industry simply closed excess, outdated steel foundries that pollute more. | Li Xinchuang, the deputy chairman of the government-affiliated China Steel Association, said Chinese production could continue undiminished if the industry simply closed excess, outdated steel foundries that pollute more. |
| Christine Loh, who was undersecretary for the environment for Hong Kong until last summer and worked closely with mainland officials, said that China had considerable potential for environmental cleanup without harming the economy. | Christine Loh, who was undersecretary for the environment for Hong Kong until last summer and worked closely with mainland officials, said that China had considerable potential for environmental cleanup without harming the economy. |
| “The new economy continues to thrive, while the old economy cleans up,” she wrote in an email. “So, the overall picture should not be seen too negatively.” | “The new economy continues to thrive, while the old economy cleans up,” she wrote in an email. “So, the overall picture should not be seen too negatively.” |
| China’s track record on nationally mandated campaigns has been mixed. Told to maximize economic output, local officials have sometimes faked statistics, most recently in a few economically depressed areas of northeastern China. | China’s track record on nationally mandated campaigns has been mixed. Told to maximize economic output, local officials have sometimes faked statistics, most recently in a few economically depressed areas of northeastern China. |
| President Xi Jinping endorsed the environmental effort in his work report last Wednesday at the start of the party congress. “Clear waters and lush mountains are as valuable as gold and silver,” he said. | President Xi Jinping endorsed the environmental effort in his work report last Wednesday at the start of the party congress. “Clear waters and lush mountains are as valuable as gold and silver,” he said. |
| Beyond maximizing economic output, Mr. Xi said that his country needed to address a new dilemma, and one that implies greater attention to environmental protection, “between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life.” | Beyond maximizing economic output, Mr. Xi said that his country needed to address a new dilemma, and one that implies greater attention to environmental protection, “between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life.” |