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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/mar/13/spring-statement-philip-hammond-growth-borrowing-brexit-live-updates
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| Spring statement: Philip Hammond to unveil improved growth and borrowing forecasts - business live | Spring statement: Philip Hammond to unveil improved growth and borrowing forecasts - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Philip Hammond’s attempt to help younger travellers is backfiring his morning. | |
| From today, 26-30 year olds can sign up to trial the new £30 ‘Millennial Railcard’, which offers one-third off rail journeys in the UK. Hammond announced it in last November’s budget, saying that 4.5 million people will benefit. | |
| However, only 10,000 are being released today, prompting a digital scrum as people try to sign up. And, predictably, Railcard website is failing to cope with the rush, leaving people disappointed and unhappy. | |
| Due to unprecedented demand our website is struggling. We'll keep you posted here as soon as we resolve the issues. We're really sorry this is happing and have our whole team on it. | |
| Given the demand for these when will there be another roll out without a restriction on numbers to the whole of the UK? Its unfair to wait when this is government backed to help younger people struggling with rail fare increases- I'll be 40 by the time I get one at this rate! | |
| Dictionary definition of unprecedented... You know how many 26-30 year olds there are in the UK right? 🤣 pic.twitter.com/mURGPTqXYr | |
| Hannah Maundrell, Editor in Chief of money.co.uk, says the basic idea is sound: | |
| “Travelling by train can be very expensive and for younger people whose pay packets are already stretched it can be a massive financial burden. After the price hikes to rail fares in January, a 26-30 rail card could ease some financial pressure from millennials, especially those who rely on trains on a daily basis. There are some restrictions however this should offer at least some relief to financially stretched commuters who are currently stung by sky high rail fares. | |
| In other current affairs news (hoho), the opposition whips’ office has been plunged into darkness by a power cut: | |
| Big day in Parliament with the Spring Statement and votes on Free School Meals and Childcare later . . . and we have no electricity in the Whips offices. Prime suspects are Julian ‘dastardly’ Smith and his Whips 🤣 pic.twitter.com/neNUMnDMar | |
| One of the architects of the government’s welfare changes is urging Philip Hammond to put more money into universal credit, reversing recent cuts. | |
| Iain Duncan Smith says working families need more help, as my colleague Anne Perkins explains: | |
| The former work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith has warned the chancellor that he risks undermining the whole purpose of welfare reform if he fails to reverse cuts to universal credit (UC) in his spring statement. | |
| Philip Hammond is under mounting pressure from across the party to use better than expected tax revenues to reverse cuts made after the 2015 election. Research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation shows that 340,000 people could be taken out of poverty by reversing the cuts to work allowances. | |
| ‘I think he’s under a lot of pressure. There are a lot of colleagues around who would like to see the money restored to UC as a step in the right direction,” said Duncan Smith. “Hammond has got more money to spend. But will he? He says no … The answer to that is, we’ll see.” | |
| Universal credit bundles a series of benefits unto a single payment; the scheme is struggling to hit the aim of making work pay more than welfare. | |
| The government are currently moving free school meals onto universal credit, meaning families earning less than 7,400 per year will qualify. Labour say this means one million children will miss out - they’ll try to block the move in a vote later today. | |
| Today after the Spring Statement, MPs will vote on Govt plans to cut free school meals in England, abolish child care vouchers and remove free childcare. The Tories show their true colours again, removing working aged benefits whilst giving tax cuts to richest https://t.co/am6MXboeuo | |
| Overnight, John McDonnell MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, has challenged Philip Hammond to end the ‘misery’ caused by the government’s austerity programme. | Overnight, John McDonnell MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, has challenged Philip Hammond to end the ‘misery’ caused by the government’s austerity programme. |
| McDonnell said: | McDonnell said: |
| “Today the Chancellor has a choice. He can choose to act and end the misery faced by many, or he can do nothing and continue to favour a privilege a few. | “Today the Chancellor has a choice. He can choose to act and end the misery faced by many, or he can do nothing and continue to favour a privilege a few. |
| “Our public services are at breaking point and many of our local councils are near bankruptcy. He needs to listen to the calls from across the political spectrum, including the Tory council leader in his own constituency - to end the financial crisis in our public sector. | “Our public services are at breaking point and many of our local councils are near bankruptcy. He needs to listen to the calls from across the political spectrum, including the Tory council leader in his own constituency - to end the financial crisis in our public sector. |
| “Philip Hammond must use today to act and end austerity. Our country cannot afford for him to continue to ignore the problems facing working households in our country. If his statement is one of boastful self-praise and not a recognition of the devastation faced by many in our country then he will have failed. | “Philip Hammond must use today to act and end austerity. Our country cannot afford for him to continue to ignore the problems facing working households in our country. If his statement is one of boastful self-praise and not a recognition of the devastation faced by many in our country then he will have failed. |
| “If the Chancellor refuses to act, then the next Labour government will end austerity and build a high wage, high skill economy for the many, not the few”. | “If the Chancellor refuses to act, then the next Labour government will end austerity and build a high wage, high skill economy for the many, not the few”. |
| Interestingly, the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg reports that the cabinet has been discussing how to get more money into the NHS. | Interestingly, the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg reports that the cabinet has been discussing how to get more money into the NHS. |
| That could include ring-fencing anew tax increase specifically for healthcare (a ‘hypothecated’ tax). | That could include ring-fencing anew tax increase specifically for healthcare (a ‘hypothecated’ tax). |
| She writes: | She writes: |
| Several senior sources say that, at the end of January, the cabinet discussed ways of getting more money into the health service in the long term. | Several senior sources say that, at the end of January, the cabinet discussed ways of getting more money into the health service in the long term. |
| That included the foreign secretary’s by now familiar argument about the hoped-for but disputed Brexit dividend. | That included the foreign secretary’s by now familiar argument about the hoped-for but disputed Brexit dividend. |
| But more intriguingly for a Conservative government, I’m told that the cabinet discussed the possibility of tax rises to fund more spending for the NHS, even a hypothecated tax, as spelled out by senior MPs like Nick Boles. | But more intriguingly for a Conservative government, I’m told that the cabinet discussed the possibility of tax rises to fund more spending for the NHS, even a hypothecated tax, as spelled out by senior MPs like Nick Boles. |
| However, we’re not expecting any NHS spending changes today. | However, we’re not expecting any NHS spending changes today. |
| 1. ‘Most of us accept something has to happen’ - could tax rises to pay for NHS be on the way? Cabinet has discussed how to find more cash for health, even tho today’s statement won’t open the cheque book - Have a read ... https://t.co/Kvbt5wgZ8a | 1. ‘Most of us accept something has to happen’ - could tax rises to pay for NHS be on the way? Cabinet has discussed how to find more cash for health, even tho today’s statement won’t open the cheque book - Have a read ... https://t.co/Kvbt5wgZ8a |
| 2. No consensus yet, but there is growing acceptance at top of govt that NHS will need more cash, even tho there is caution about how and when | 2. No consensus yet, but there is growing acceptance at top of govt that NHS will need more cash, even tho there is caution about how and when |
| 3. Spring statement today tho won’t be moment for any splurge tho - Labour and the Tories hoping for extra cash for public services won’t get their way way | 3. Spring statement today tho won’t be moment for any splurge tho - Labour and the Tories hoping for extra cash for public services won’t get their way way |
| 4. Hammond will stick to need for ‘balanced’ spending - code for keeping tight lid on public spending while govt sorts out the debt | 4. Hammond will stick to need for ‘balanced’ spending - code for keeping tight lid on public spending while govt sorts out the debt |
| Our economics editor Larry Elliott has identified the five key things to watch out for in today’s spring statement. | Our economics editor Larry Elliott has identified the five key things to watch out for in today’s spring statement. |
| That includes slightly improved growth forecasts, as Larry explains: | That includes slightly improved growth forecasts, as Larry explains: |
| Hammond is likely to say that the outlook for growth is marginally better than it was three months ago. In November, the OBR said it was expecting the economy to expand by 1.5% in 2017 and by 1.4% in 2018. The latest official figures from the Office for National Statistics show that growth was actually 1.7% in 2017 and the consensus among City, business and academic economists is that something similar is likely in 2018. | Hammond is likely to say that the outlook for growth is marginally better than it was three months ago. In November, the OBR said it was expecting the economy to expand by 1.5% in 2017 and by 1.4% in 2018. The latest official figures from the Office for National Statistics show that growth was actually 1.7% in 2017 and the consensus among City, business and academic economists is that something similar is likely in 2018. |
| In the past, chancellors have used their statements to boast about the UK outperforming other economies, but that won’t happen on this occasion given that Britain grew more slowly all the other G7 countries in 2017 bar Italy. | In the past, chancellors have used their statements to boast about the UK outperforming other economies, but that won’t happen on this occasion given that Britain grew more slowly all the other G7 countries in 2017 bar Italy. |
| Copies of the spring statement have arrived at Downing Street this morning: | Copies of the spring statement have arrived at Downing Street this morning: |
| Copies of the Spring Statement just arrived at The Chancellors gaff one imagines for his approval with only hours to go! 📸 pic.twitter.com/VRyzLwPPmk | Copies of the Spring Statement just arrived at The Chancellors gaff one imagines for his approval with only hours to go! 📸 pic.twitter.com/VRyzLwPPmk |
| Philip Hammond is also likely to launch several consultations today, which could lead to reforms and policy changes in the autumn budget. | Philip Hammond is also likely to launch several consultations today, which could lead to reforms and policy changes in the autumn budget. |
| This could include an examination into how the tax system can be used to tackle the growing problem of plastic waste. This could build on the existing 5p levy on plastic bags. | This could include an examination into how the tax system can be used to tackle the growing problem of plastic waste. This could build on the existing 5p levy on plastic bags. |
| Other areas include the taxation of the UK’s digital economy, tax simplification, artificial intelligence (AI) and the VAT system faced by small businesses. | Other areas include the taxation of the UK’s digital economy, tax simplification, artificial intelligence (AI) and the VAT system faced by small businesses. |
| Good morning. Philip Hammond is about to create a little bit of history, when he unveils the UK’s first ever spring statement. | Good morning. Philip Hammond is about to create a little bit of history, when he unveils the UK’s first ever spring statement. |
| But in truth, today’s statement will be as notable for what’s not in it -- we’re not expecting any tax and spending changes, and the whole speech could be over in 20 minutes or so. | But in truth, today’s statement will be as notable for what’s not in it -- we’re not expecting any tax and spending changes, and the whole speech could be over in 20 minutes or so. |
| That’s because the chancellor of the exchequer, having moved the budget to the autumn, is determined to only have one fiscal event this year. | That’s because the chancellor of the exchequer, having moved the budget to the autumn, is determined to only have one fiscal event this year. |
| So without any fiscal fireworks, Hammond will be focusing on an upbeat assessment of the state of the British economy today. | So without any fiscal fireworks, Hammond will be focusing on an upbeat assessment of the state of the British economy today. |
| He’s expected to reveal that the UK economy could grow a little faster than expected this year, while borrowing is undershooting forecasts thanks to strong tax receipts. | He’s expected to reveal that the UK economy could grow a little faster than expected this year, while borrowing is undershooting forecasts thanks to strong tax receipts. |
| City experts predict that borrowing this financial year could be revised down by £7bn, to £43bn, while next year’s could be trimmed from £40bn to £34bn. | City experts predict that borrowing this financial year could be revised down by £7bn, to £43bn, while next year’s could be trimmed from £40bn to £34bn. |
| The forecast for economic growth this year is expected to be increased, from the lacklustre 1.4% forecast in November. | The forecast for economic growth this year is expected to be increased, from the lacklustre 1.4% forecast in November. |
| Hammond can also boast that, for the first time since the financial crisis, Britain is bringing in enough tax to cover day-to-day spending. | Hammond can also boast that, for the first time since the financial crisis, Britain is bringing in enough tax to cover day-to-day spending. |
| There are many places in the UK crying out for more investment — from the NHS and schools to transport infrastructure and the military. The chancellor, though, is expected to resist calls to ease austerity, and keep any extra fiscal powder dry until autumn’s Budget. | There are many places in the UK crying out for more investment — from the NHS and schools to transport infrastructure and the military. The chancellor, though, is expected to resist calls to ease austerity, and keep any extra fiscal powder dry until autumn’s Budget. |
| As Hammond put it on Sunday: | As Hammond put it on Sunday: |
| “There is light at the end of the tunnel, because what we’re about to see is debt starting to fall, after it’s been growing for 17 continuous years. That’s a very important moment for us. | “There is light at the end of the tunnel, because what we’re about to see is debt starting to fall, after it’s been growing for 17 continuous years. That’s a very important moment for us. |
| “But we are still in the tunnel at the moment. | “But we are still in the tunnel at the moment. |
| We have to get debt down. We’ve got all sorts of other things we want to do. We’ve taken a balanced approach over the last couple of fiscal events, using the flexibility we had to continue paying down debt but also to provide additional support to our public service. | We have to get debt down. We’ve got all sorts of other things we want to do. We’ve taken a balanced approach over the last couple of fiscal events, using the flexibility we had to continue paying down debt but also to provide additional support to our public service. |
| He’s also tweeted a colourful explanation of what to expect: | He’s also tweeted a colourful explanation of what to expect: |
| Next week I'll be delivering my Spring Statement and providing an update on the UK economy. Here's what the Spring Statement is all about.pic.twitter.com/AqlBsx7FOc | Next week I'll be delivering my Spring Statement and providing an update on the UK economy. Here's what the Spring Statement is all about.pic.twitter.com/AqlBsx7FOc |
| After Hammond sits down Britain’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, will give its verdict on the chancellor’s plans and the state of the UK economy. | After Hammond sits down Britain’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, will give its verdict on the chancellor’s plans and the state of the UK economy. |
| Importantly, the OBR is also expected to release its estimate of the cost of Brexit, including a forecast of yearly payments from the UK to the EU. That could end up being the big story of the day.... | Importantly, the OBR is also expected to release its estimate of the cost of Brexit, including a forecast of yearly payments from the UK to the EU. That could end up being the big story of the day.... |
| Here’s the agenda: | Here’s the agenda: |
| 12.30pm GMT: Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond delivers the spring statement | 12.30pm GMT: Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond delivers the spring statement |
| 1pm (estimated) GMT: Office for Budget Responsibility releases its latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook | 1pm (estimated) GMT: Office for Budget Responsibility releases its latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook |
| 3pm GMT: Office for Budget Responsibility press conference | 3pm GMT: Office for Budget Responsibility press conference |