Israel's Kadima seeks fresh hope

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/-/1/hi/world/middle_east/7616486.stm

Version 0 of 1.

By Heather Sharp BBC News, Jerusalem

Is Kadima a home? "Let's not exaggerate," says Mr Rothschild

"Let the old year and its curses come to an end; let the New Year with its blessings begin."

The traditional Jewish Rosh Hashanah blessing is repeated again and again as Israel's ruling centrist Kadima party toasts the coming year, days before it is to choose a new leader.

Despite the smiles and applause, few of the activists gathered amid high security in a hotel outside Tel Aviv are pretending the party has not had a rough ride in recent months.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's ratings have plummeted amid the corruption investigations which forced him to announce plans to step down.

"Kadima means 'forward', but I've been arguing that the party is going backwards," says David Nachmias, a political scientist at Israel's Interdisciplinary Center.

Party of withdrawal

The party was formed nearly three years ago by the then Prime Minister and leader of centre-right Likud party, Ariel Sharon.

He brought left-of-centre figures together with Likud members willing to split off in support of his policy of withdrawing settlers from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank.

But the unifying banner of "unilateral disengagement" now droops at half mast.

Ms Livni leads polls, but the race could be unpredictableThe militant group Hamas has seized control of the Gaza Strip, war broke out in 2006 in south Lebanon - from where Israel had also withdrawn - and a near-fatal stroke has left Mr Sharon in a coma.

On Wednesday Kadima members will probably elect one of the two frontrunners in the leadership contest - Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who leads in popular polls, and Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz.

Ms Livni's supporters hope she will breathe new life into a political establishment mired in sleaze and dominated by ageing, male, former military figures, although she is widely criticised for her lack of experience.

Mr Mofaz, a former chief of staff who has talked tough on Iran, is seen as further to the right on security, but many fear he would turn Kadima into a "Likud 2".

'A shambles'

Kadima's short history and the difference between Ms Livni and Mr Mofaz has led many to wonder if the party - dubbed a political "refugee camp" by Labour leader Ehud Barak - has a clear platform at all.

"The state Kadima's in is a shambles. It was a one-man party, it doesn't stand for anything," says Mr Nachmias.

Ms Adoni says she is a "little bit" disappointed with Kadima The supporters sipping wine and dipping apple slices into honey for a sweet New Year clearly believe the party has a vision. But they are certainly politically eclectic.

There are many who followed Mr Sharon from Likud, such as Giora Dolthin, 62, who hails from Mr Sharon's birthplace, Kfar-Malal, in central Israel.

He says he and his family come from the "extreme right", but he thinks the Likud alternative, Binyamin Netanyahu, is a "fake" with dubious morals. He backs Mr Mofaz for the leadership: "We believe in the man."

Hagiot Adoni, 44, a kindergarten teacher from the northern town of Tiberias, also talks wistfully of Mr Sharon.

She says she is "a little bit disappointed" with how Kadima has turned out, but would not return to Likud.

KEY DATES Feb 2001: Ariel Sharon elected prime ministerAug-Sept 2005: Withdrawal from Gaza and four West Bank settlements, Binyamin Netanyahu resigns as finance ministerNov 2005: Sharon resigns from Likud and forms KadimaDec 2005: Binyamin Netanyahu elected Likud leaderJan 2006: Sharon suffers major stroke, Ehud Olmert becomes caretaker PMMarch 2006: Kadima wins elections and later forms coalition with LabourMay 2007: Report criticises Olmert's handling of war. Calls for resignation.July 2008: Facing corruption probe, Olmert announces plans to step down <a class="" href="/1/hi/world/middle_east/7613137.stm">Q&A: Israeli leadership change</a><a class="" href="/1/hi/world/middle_east/7612715.stm">Israeli fears boost opposition Likud</a>

"It's the same people, the same way, nothing changes," she says.

Then there are those like retired computer professional Jacob Rothschild, 72, from Rishon-Letzion, near Tel Aviv.

He followed Shimon Peres, now Israel's president, from the Labour party, but says Labour has become too weak and stayed too far in its traditional left-leaning territory.

So is Kadima a new political home? "Let's not exaggerate," he says.

Different again is Abraham Kerbel, 62, who says he has voted for "a different party almost every election" and joined Kadima just a month ago.

He says he became so fed up with corruption in Israeli politics that he paid 50 Israeli shekels (US$14) to join a political party for the first time in his life, in order to back Ms Livni in the leadership race.

"In my opinion, Netanyahu, Barak and Olmert are from the same neighbourhood - in their behaviour, the way they make decisions - I think Livni gives a lot more. I think she's honest."

Survival vote?

Many in the audience say they are sad to see Mr Olmert go, and a standing ovation follows speeches hailing his achievements in office - listed as direct talks the Palestinians, indirect negotiations with Syria and a steady economy despite global financial turmoil.

Party strategist Lior Horev, who also came with Mr Sharon from Likud, says Kadima represents a "new political paradigm" and has successfully carved out a centrist niche.

He argues that the party is distinct from Likud in its commitment to current negotiations with the Palestinians, and from Labour in the price it would be willing to pay for peace.

Kadima was formed in the wake of the withdrawal from GazaBut as Ms Livni herself has observed: "It's easy to be a rightist and criticise everything without offering alternatives. It's also easy to be a leftist and ignore realities. It's harder to be a centrist."

And it is the battle for the centre ground that analysts say will loom large as the new leader tries to form a coalition, and takes the party to early general elections if he or she fails.

Mr Mofaz may yet defy pollsters in the internal election with his network of regional vote-brokering activists.

He is also generally thought better placed to build bridges with more right-wing parties, although Ms Livni is polling much more strongly against the resurgent Mr Netanyahu for potential elections.

"Kadima might get more seats with Livni, but keep the centre ground with Mofaz, and the centre ground is more important," says Avraham Diskin, a political analyst based at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

"The one who controls the centre dictates the coalition."

But there are many, including key figures within Kadima, who believe Ms Livni is the party's only hope for survival.

As Mr Horev says: "For us who were really identified with its creation - and you don't create a new ruling party every day - it's the last resort. Either we save it now or it's gone."