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Turnbull's day of reckoning as challengers seek numbers for leadership spill – politics live Solicitor general says Dutton likely to be eligible but there is 'some risk' high court would find otherwise – politics live
(35 minutes later)
Pity the poor solicitor general, Stephen Donaghue, the commonwealth solicitor general, caught in the middle of this horrific dogfight.The SG has given a nuanced position on Peter Dutton’s eligibility. “On the facts set out below, in my opinion the better view is that Mr Dutton is not incapable of sitting as a member of the House of Representatives by reasons of s44(v) of the constitution”.
Then there’s more qualification.
While I consider the position summarised above to represent the better view, it is impossible to state the position with certainty. That is so for three reasons. First, the facts concerning Mr Dutton are unlike those that have previously been assessed against s44(v). Second, as I note below, there may be further facts of which I am presently unaware. Third, there is a significant division of opinion on the high court as to key questions concerning the legal operation of s44(v), which creates some difficulty in predicting the manner in which the court would analyse the facts. There is a possibility, consistently with the approach that the high court recently took in the context of s44(i) of the constitution, that the court might endeavour to create a clearer line in the interests of certainty, which might involve a broader reading of s44(v) than was reflected in some of the judgments in Re Day (No 2).
The momentum towards the party room meeting now looks unstoppable but just for the record, Warren Entsch tells me the Dutton petition is still one short.
Entsch has offered to be the 43rd signature to break the deadlock, just to ensure the leadership spiral doesn’t go beyond today. But the Dutton folks haven’t turned up with the document yet.
“I don’t want to leave here without a meeting,” he tells me.
Entsch is in a state of total despair about the state of federal politics.
This cancer started when Brendan Nelson got trashed, and it’s never been the bloody same since. Rolling leaders has become a culture. We’ve got to clean it. We have to. It’s about time for a bit of loyalty, a bit of respect.
Right, we’ve now got that legal advice in full. It’s slightly more qualified than previously reported.
The crucial paragraph says the following:
On the facts set out below, in my opinion the better view is that Mr Dutton is not incapable of sitting as a member of the House of Representatives by reasons of s 44(v) of the Constitution.
We are still working through this advice. It’s 27 pages long and it landed in my inbox about a minute ago. As you can appreciate with constitutional law, it’s dense and legalistic. Stay with us.
The 2GB radio host Ray Hadley has just had a spray at Malcolm Turnbull on his morning radio show.
He’s very angry that Turnbull is refusing to fall on his sword politely.
His complaint – which mirrors the complaints of other media showmen who have been stridently anti-Turnbull, like Sky News’ Andrew Bolt – is that Turnbull has laid some booby traps for Dutton on his way out the door.
“It’s a low, low act,” Hadley declared.
He then swerved topics, saying no one but Dutton will have the ability to address the problem with Australia’s immigration levels.
“If Scott Morrison’s the prime minister there’ll be no chance because he’s been fervent supporter of maintaining a couple of hundred thousand people a year. So too has Julie Bishop,” he said. “The only person who wants to change it is Peter Dutton.
“I have lived for the bulk of my life in Sydney. Now previously on the program I’ve shared with you the battle to cross from where I live in the north-western part of Sydney to somewhere like Leichhardt Oval on a Thursday to arrive going to the football.
“Getting from one part of Sydney to another is almost impossible during peak, whether you’re going from the north side – the northern beaches – to the [Sutherland] Shire, or you’re going to the south-west on the M5 or going to the west on the M2, the M7, or going north on the M1.
“It’s just an impossible mission.
“Sydney is bursting at the seams. It doesn’t matter which way you go … and yet there’s very little discussion from key people in politics about supporting a slowdown in immigration, like Dick Smith has advocated for quite some time, like [former Labor NSW premier] Bob Carr has advocated for quite some time.
“It’s one of the biggest issues confronting capital cities in the country and it’s a really big issue for those of us who live in Sydney at the moment or Melbourne, and to a lesser extent Brisbane.”
Sky News is reporting the solicitor general’s advice finds that Peter Dutton is “not incapable” of sitting as a member of parliament. That will be of significant relief for Dutton.
We’re still working to get a copy of the advice in full and will let you know, as soon as we have it.
Another significant development. The attorney general, Christian Porter, has confirmed the advice on Dutton’s eligibility has been received from the solicitor general. The statement reads:
I have today received advice from the solicitor general, Mr Stephen Donoghue QC, regarding the eligibility of Mr Peter Dutton to sit as a member of the House of Representatives.
That advice has been provided to both the prime minister and to Mr Dutton.
We don’t yet have the advice. But there are indications it will be released publicly ahead of the party room meeting.
Liberal MPs are continuing to arrive at parliament this morning. Most, it’s fair to say, look suitably despondent about the crisis gripping their party.Liberal MPs are continuing to arrive at parliament this morning. Most, it’s fair to say, look suitably despondent about the crisis gripping their party.
Sarah Henderson, a Victorian Liberal, says:Sarah Henderson, a Victorian Liberal, says:
I am personally devastated by what is occurring, we just have to get through today as quickly as we can and reunite. I am personally devastated by what is occurring. We just have to get through today as quickly as we can and reunite.
We’re also hearing more and more MPs saying they signed the petition just to resolve this mess with urgency. That does not mean they’re backing Dutton, obviously.We’re also hearing more and more MPs saying they signed the petition just to resolve this mess with urgency. That does not mean they’re backing Dutton, obviously.
It seems pretty safe to say those 43 signatures (a majority of the party) will be on this thing by morning’s end.It seems pretty safe to say those 43 signatures (a majority of the party) will be on this thing by morning’s end.
Alex Hawke, a NSW Liberal and assistant minister, had this to say:Alex Hawke, a NSW Liberal and assistant minister, had this to say:
It’s a big thing today to sign a petition but there are good people on that petition.It’s a big thing today to sign a petition but there are good people on that petition.
I think people today want to have this resolved. I think colleagues want to have it resolved I do think people will sign the petition, I think they will sign the petition not because they want to, but because they want to see the issue resolved today.I think people today want to have this resolved. I think colleagues want to have it resolved I do think people will sign the petition, I think they will sign the petition not because they want to, but because they want to see the issue resolved today.
We’re getting reports in that the prime minister has received that critical piece of legal advice about the eligibility of Peter Dutton and will publish it publicly. We are trying to confirm those reports as we speak.We’re getting reports in that the prime minister has received that critical piece of legal advice about the eligibility of Peter Dutton and will publish it publicly. We are trying to confirm those reports as we speak.
This is the advice, you’ll remember, from the solicitor general that Turnbull so desperately wanted to put before the party room meeting ahead of a spill.This is the advice, you’ll remember, from the solicitor general that Turnbull so desperately wanted to put before the party room meeting ahead of a spill.
The advice will play a critical role in this whole saga. If the advice is unequivocal that Dutton is not eligible, it could throw a real spanner in the works for his leadership ambitions. Remember, only the high court can rule Dutton eligible or ineligible for office, and only the lower house can refer Dutton to the high court.The advice will play a critical role in this whole saga. If the advice is unequivocal that Dutton is not eligible, it could throw a real spanner in the works for his leadership ambitions. Remember, only the high court can rule Dutton eligible or ineligible for office, and only the lower house can refer Dutton to the high court.
But if the solicitor general rules him ineligible, the question becomes this: could the party elect a prime minister that is more than likely not eligible for parliament? Or would it be enough to sway more MPs over to a Morrison or Bishop vote?But if the solicitor general rules him ineligible, the question becomes this: could the party elect a prime minister that is more than likely not eligible for parliament? Or would it be enough to sway more MPs over to a Morrison or Bishop vote?
Breaking: the PM is about to receive the Solicitor General’s advice and will publish it before the partyroom meeting. It will be PUBLICLY released #auspol @abcnewsBreaking: the PM is about to receive the Solicitor General’s advice and will publish it before the partyroom meeting. It will be PUBLICLY released #auspol @abcnews
The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, spoke to ABC radio a little earlier this morning. He made the point that whatever happens in this ballot, action on climate change, however meek, now looks unlikely. Turnbull dumped his signature energy and climate policy to appease conservatives, who then decided it wasn’t enough and knifed him anyway.The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, spoke to ABC radio a little earlier this morning. He made the point that whatever happens in this ballot, action on climate change, however meek, now looks unlikely. Turnbull dumped his signature energy and climate policy to appease conservatives, who then decided it wasn’t enough and knifed him anyway.
Turnbull announced the policy wouldn’t be taken to the next election, and you’d hardly expect any of his successors to backtrack on that, given it precipitated the demise of the PM.Turnbull announced the policy wouldn’t be taken to the next election, and you’d hardly expect any of his successors to backtrack on that, given it precipitated the demise of the PM.
Here’s what Di Natale had to say:Here’s what Di Natale had to say:
Regardless of who wins the ballot, we’re not going to see any action on climate change. At a time when 100% of NSW is in drought, we’ve had bushfires right across NSW, in winter for goodness sake. We’ve got the Great Barrier Reef on the brink of collapse. We’ve got no energy policy now.Regardless of who wins the ballot, we’re not going to see any action on climate change. At a time when 100% of NSW is in drought, we’ve had bushfires right across NSW, in winter for goodness sake. We’ve got the Great Barrier Reef on the brink of collapse. We’ve got no energy policy now.
We have a party that has decided that it’s own pathway to electoral success is to talk about the fact that we’ve got to many people coming to this country, rather than addressing infrastructure and all those things that we know lead to a decent society.We have a party that has decided that it’s own pathway to electoral success is to talk about the fact that we’ve got to many people coming to this country, rather than addressing infrastructure and all those things that we know lead to a decent society.
The reality is that the Liberal party now, right now, is controlled by a backward looking, rightwing faction, that are trying to take us back decades.The reality is that the Liberal party now, right now, is controlled by a backward looking, rightwing faction, that are trying to take us back decades.
Right, we’ve got some immediate breaking news.Right, we’ve got some immediate breaking news.
Warren Entsch, a Queensland Liberal who played a critical role supporting the same-sex marriage debate, has just indicated he will be the 43rd signature on the petition, if needed.Warren Entsch, a Queensland Liberal who played a critical role supporting the same-sex marriage debate, has just indicated he will be the 43rd signature on the petition, if needed.
He adds to a pool of Liberal MPs who are signing this petition out of frustration with the current mess. He wants stability and a resolution to the deadlock.He adds to a pool of Liberal MPs who are signing this petition out of frustration with the current mess. He wants stability and a resolution to the deadlock.
Entsch is an interesting character. He gives lie to the fact that you need to lurch to the right to win votes in Queensland. That’s the motivation behind Dutton’s push for the leadership after the disastrous byelection result in Longman.Entsch is an interesting character. He gives lie to the fact that you need to lurch to the right to win votes in Queensland. That’s the motivation behind Dutton’s push for the leadership after the disastrous byelection result in Longman.
#breaking Queensland Liberal Warren Entsch has indicated he will be the 43rd signature to the leadership petition – but only if it needed. ABC understands he has repeatedly refused to sign the petitions but will add his name if it will break the deadlock. #libspill @politicsabc#breaking Queensland Liberal Warren Entsch has indicated he will be the 43rd signature to the leadership petition – but only if it needed. ABC understands he has repeatedly refused to sign the petitions but will add his name if it will break the deadlock. #libspill @politicsabc
Hello, and thanks to Michael McGowan for giving me some much-needed sleep this morning.Hello, and thanks to Michael McGowan for giving me some much-needed sleep this morning.
We’re about three hours out from the all-important party room meeting. So buckle up, let’s walk hand-in-hand together across this political wasteland.We’re about three hours out from the all-important party room meeting. So buckle up, let’s walk hand-in-hand together across this political wasteland.
I was despairing at the state of affairs when I got home late last night. But then a plucky little fella named Burt Reynolds made me smile, despite the inanity of it all. He’s ready for a spill. So I suppose we all should be too.I was despairing at the state of affairs when I got home late last night. But then a plucky little fella named Burt Reynolds made me smile, despite the inanity of it all. He’s ready for a spill. So I suppose we all should be too.
Dear #auspol, I’m ready! #libspill @knausc https://t.co/1BPLVyxkz1 pic.twitter.com/wTorCDtt8hDear #auspol, I’m ready! #libspill @knausc https://t.co/1BPLVyxkz1 pic.twitter.com/wTorCDtt8h
Right, that’s going to do me for the morning. I’ll hand you back to the more than capable hands of Christopher Knaus in Canberra.
Before I go, here’s a quick run down of where we are at.
It now appears certain that there will be a party room meeting at noon. MPs have suggested the petition is at or extremely close to the required 43 signatures, and the president of the Liberal Party Nick Greiner has contacted Turnbull today to push him to hold the meeting either way.
If and when it goes ahead, it will be a three-way race between Peter Dutton, Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop.
This morning Matthias Cormann reconfirmed his support for Dutton, but was less than effusive when asked about his idea to remove GST from power bills.
Thanks for reading.
Kevin Andrews, a Howard-era conservative and Victorian MP, has just spoken to reporters.
Asked whether he thought Turnbull should remain in parliament to keep the government’s margin alive, he said:
I would hope everyone involved in this will act honourably and do what’s in the best interests of stable government in Australia
Look, it’s almost certain you’re going to have a new prime minister today. You don’t get to vote, of course, but you still ought to know who the candidates are. Luckily, we’ve got you covered.
How might Australia’s Indigenous and migrant populations react to a Peter Dutton prime ministership?
Dutton was one of only a handful of MPs who boycotted Kevin Rudd’s apology for the stolen generations in 2008.
He’s also made incendiary comments about particular migrant groups and crime in Australia. In 2016 he suggested the former prime minister Malcolm Fraser made mistakes “bringing some people in”, in reference to Lebanese-Muslim Australians.
Yesterday, my colleagues and I heard from some members of those communities, some of whom said they were “deeply worried” at the prospect of him leading the nation.
Read the piece here.
Earlier Ben Morton said he thought he may have been the 43rd name. It seems certain now that one way or another we’re going to have this midday spill meeting.
#breaking Queensland Liberal Warren Entsch has indicated he will be the 43rd signature to the leadership petition – but only if it needed. ABC understands he has repeatedly refused to sign the petitions but will add his name if it will break the deadlock. #libspill @politicsabc
Just back to that Cormann interview on Sky. He seemed less than enthusiastic about Dutton’s key policy platform: removing GST from power bills.
You’ll remember Cormann stood next to Scott Morrison only two days ago when the Treasurer said the policy would be a “budget blower”.
Asked about the policy Cormann said Dutton had made “certain comments as a backbench member of parliament” and that if he was elected it would be “discussed through normal cabinet processes”.
That seems like code for, yeah, probably not.
Cormann also said that whoever becomes leader would honour the government’s previous commitments on GST. That’s a big deal for Western Australia.
It’s not often that the Aussie dollar is the main story on foreign exchange markets but today is the exception. The currency has suffered a 1.4% fall in the past 24 hours as investors have taken fright at the instability in Canberra.
As market analyst Greg McKenna says this morning, it’s not often that Australian politics moves the dollar – which is more senstive to overseas factors – but this time it’s different. Greg writes on axitrader.com:
All I can say is what a shambles. And I guess I have to say that my comments this week that politics doesn’t usually upset Australian markets was wrong. It’s usually been the case over my career that it doesn’t matter to trader. But I guess in a world of Trump, Brexit, Putin, Erdogan, Duterte and many other populist leaders the type of instability and lurch in policy Dutton has already articulated, combined with the reality that the whole world knows this will be Rudd-Gillard-Rudd-Abbott-Turnbull-Dutton/Morrison/Bishop has simply given the bears the whip hand on a day the USD was doing better anyway. So the path of least resistance for the Aussie was lower.
This chart shows what Greg means. The initial ructions in Canberra didn’t really affect the dollar too much. But in the past 24 hours you can see it’s lost quite a lot of ground as the leadership spill has dragged on (the timings on this chart are in BST). Markets never like uncertainty and the dollar is paying the price.
Michael Kroger, the Liberal president for Victoria, has just confirmed state party directors had dinner last night and decided that party president Nick Greiner would contact Turnbull to say they want the leadership issue resolved today.
Greiner has now done that. Kroger won’t say what Turnbull’s response was.
There’s no reason why this meeting shouldn’t be held. Meetings have been held [with] two signatures.
Greiner doesn’t say whether or not they have the 43 signatures, but the heads of the party want the meeting anyway to resolve the leadership saga.
He says he’s sure that “reflects the views of Liberal party members around the country”.
Senior Liberal senator Mathias Cormann is being interviewed on Sky News. Cormann’s resignation from the frontbench yesterday was really the end of Malcolm Turnbull’s government, given his sway in the party.
He reconfirmed he’ll be supporting Peter Dutton for leader in the event of a party room meeting. He says he “would have preferred” if Turnbull had called the meeting earlier, but he’s “very confident” it will take place today.
Cormann says he’s backing Dutton because he’s the candidate “best able to connect with hard working, aspirational families in Australia”.
Peter Dutton connects very well to hard-working, aspirational Australians ... he will be able to reconnect with the Howard battlers [and] bring them back into Liberal fold. He knows what it takes.
On section 44 questions, Cormann says he’s confident Dutton is eligible to be in the parliament.
Peter Dutton is a validly elected member of parliament ... childcare benefits are benefits for parents childcare centres do not provide services to the commonwealth.
Am I the only one who feels like yesterday took on a vaguely Beckettian vibe after Turnbull declared he would only hold a party room meeting if the Dutton forces could cobble together 43 signatures on a piece of paper?
We then spent the day waiting around for a petition we were sure was going to arrive but never did.
But last night the conservative ACT senator Zed Seselja – one of the group of ministers who have resigned their posts – said the petition had “over 40” signatures and was “around about the mark” of the 43 signatures required to force a spill.
You can read Katharine Murphy and Paul Karp’s account of yesterday’s events here.