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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| Brexit chaos: what happens next? | Brexit chaos: what happens next? |
| (7 days later) | |
| What has Theresa May done? | What has Theresa May done? |
| Facing what she conceded to the House of Commons was expected to be a “significant” loss when her Brexit deal was put to MPs, Theresa May has instead postponed Tuesday evening’s vote. | Facing what she conceded to the House of Commons was expected to be a “significant” loss when her Brexit deal was put to MPs, Theresa May has instead postponed Tuesday evening’s vote. |
| The process was not formally ended, because that would have needed a vote from MPs, which she might well have lost. Instead, it was put off via an informal change in Commons business. The procedure enraged the Speaker, John Bercow, who called it “deeply discourteous”. | The process was not formally ended, because that would have needed a vote from MPs, which she might well have lost. Instead, it was put off via an informal change in Commons business. The procedure enraged the Speaker, John Bercow, who called it “deeply discourteous”. |
| May roundly condemned by MPs after delaying Brexit vote to seek fresh backstop assurances – Politics live | May roundly condemned by MPs after delaying Brexit vote to seek fresh backstop assurances – Politics live |
| When will the vote happen? | When will the vote happen? |
| No one knows. May told MPs that the only firm date was updating the Commons before 21 January, as decreed under the EU Withdrawal Act, indicating that the vote might not happen before the new year. | No one knows. May told MPs that the only firm date was updating the Commons before 21 January, as decreed under the EU Withdrawal Act, indicating that the vote might not happen before the new year. |
| Some have argued that the PM is not obliged under the law to come back to parliament until just before Brexit, but that seems politically impossible. | Some have argued that the PM is not obliged under the law to come back to parliament until just before Brexit, but that seems politically impossible. |
| What is May trying to do? | What is May trying to do? |
| She told MPs that having listened to three of the allotted five days of debate on her deal, she had realised that too many MPs objected to proposals for the so-called backstop, the insurance policy to prevent a hard Irish border after Brexit. | She told MPs that having listened to three of the allotted five days of debate on her deal, she had realised that too many MPs objected to proposals for the so-called backstop, the insurance policy to prevent a hard Irish border after Brexit. |
| May said she would seek changes from the EU and find ways to “empower” MPs on the matter. Critics, however, will argue she is mainly seeking a delay in the hope something will come up and save her from a defeat that could end her career. | May said she would seek changes from the EU and find ways to “empower” MPs on the matter. Critics, however, will argue she is mainly seeking a delay in the hope something will come up and save her from a defeat that could end her career. |
| Will this end up with a re-written withdrawal agreement? | Will this end up with a re-written withdrawal agreement? |
| May was vague on this point when asked several times in the Commons exactly what new result she hoped to achieve. The reality is that the EU has made it clear that new negotiations are not an option, particularly over the backstop. | May was vague on this point when asked several times in the Commons exactly what new result she hoped to achieve. The reality is that the EU has made it clear that new negotiations are not an option, particularly over the backstop. |
| The Guardian view on the Brexit vote: the prime minister is on the run | Editorial | The Guardian view on the Brexit vote: the prime minister is on the run | Editorial |
| The European council president, Donald Tusk tweeted that the EU would “not renegotiate the deal, including the backstop, but “we are ready to discuss how to facilitate UK ratification”. When selling her plan to MPs, May said it was the only deal on the table and could not be redrawn. | The European council president, Donald Tusk tweeted that the EU would “not renegotiate the deal, including the backstop, but “we are ready to discuss how to facilitate UK ratification”. When selling her plan to MPs, May said it was the only deal on the table and could not be redrawn. |
| How will she try to tweak the plan? | How will she try to tweak the plan? |
| No 10 says May will spend the next couple of days travelling to meet EU leaders “to discuss the concerns that parliament has expressed”. On Tuesday she is to meet Dutch PM Mark Rutte in The Hague, then going to Berlin to see Angela Merkel. Cabinet, which usually meets on Tuesdays, will be shifted to later in the week. | No 10 says May will spend the next couple of days travelling to meet EU leaders “to discuss the concerns that parliament has expressed”. On Tuesday she is to meet Dutch PM Mark Rutte in The Hague, then going to Berlin to see Angela Merkel. Cabinet, which usually meets on Tuesdays, will be shifted to later in the week. |
| She will also meet the European council summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. She had hoped this might be the first EU gathering after parliament had approved the deal. Instead, she must present herself again as a supplicant. The council will discuss Brexit on Thursday, as well as planning for no deal. | She will also meet the European council summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. She had hoped this might be the first EU gathering after parliament had approved the deal. Instead, she must present herself again as a supplicant. The council will discuss Brexit on Thursday, as well as planning for no deal. |
| What is her plan after this? | What is her plan after this? |
| The most truthful answer is that no one knows, probably not even May. Her can-kicking political instincts seem likely to tempt her into trying to put off any new showdown, but every further day of uncertainty will bring new political pressures within her party, in the Commons and more widely. | The most truthful answer is that no one knows, probably not even May. Her can-kicking political instincts seem likely to tempt her into trying to put off any new showdown, but every further day of uncertainty will bring new political pressures within her party, in the Commons and more widely. |
| May’s internal party critics, whether leavers and remainers, have clearly not been placated and the perception of endless delay could be the final prompt needed to spark a Conservative party leadership challenge. | May’s internal party critics, whether leavers and remainers, have clearly not been placated and the perception of endless delay could be the final prompt needed to spark a Conservative party leadership challenge. |
| A no-deal Brexit would be the deranged action of a rogue state | Rafael Behr | A no-deal Brexit would be the deranged action of a rogue state | Rafael Behr |
| What is Labour doing? | What is Labour doing? |
| Jeremy Corbyn was vigorous in his condemnation, saying the government had “lost control of events and is in complete disarray”, but he had little in the way of concrete plans beyond reiterating that May should step down. | Jeremy Corbyn was vigorous in his condemnation, saying the government had “lost control of events and is in complete disarray”, but he had little in the way of concrete plans beyond reiterating that May should step down. |
| He has come under pressure from the Scottish National party and some of his own MPs to press ahead with a no-confidence motion in May and push for a second referendum. A Labour statement said the party planned a no-confidence motion “when we judge it most likely to be successful”, seemingly when May presents her plan to the Commons again. | He has come under pressure from the Scottish National party and some of his own MPs to press ahead with a no-confidence motion in May and push for a second referendum. A Labour statement said the party planned a no-confidence motion “when we judge it most likely to be successful”, seemingly when May presents her plan to the Commons again. |
| Is a general election or a second referendum possible? | Is a general election or a second referendum possible? |
| The best response is probably not yet, but don’t rule anything out. A significant loss in a no-confidence motion could be so politically damaging as to make an election inevitable, even with the restrictions of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. An election is still Labour’s preferred option. | The best response is probably not yet, but don’t rule anything out. A significant loss in a no-confidence motion could be so politically damaging as to make an election inevitable, even with the restrictions of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. An election is still Labour’s preferred option. |
| May still vehemently rejects a second referendum, and it is only Labour’s second-choice option. But politically tricky as it might be, the longer it remains obvious that parliament is hopelessly deadlocked over what to do, the more the hopes of second referendum advocates will be raised. | May still vehemently rejects a second referendum, and it is only Labour’s second-choice option. But politically tricky as it might be, the longer it remains obvious that parliament is hopelessly deadlocked over what to do, the more the hopes of second referendum advocates will be raised. |
| What has happened to May’s authority? | What has happened to May’s authority? |
| It has, to paraphrase the dead parrot sketch, passed on. It is no more, it has ceased to be. May has already been running her Brexit strategy in the Commons in something of a masochistic way, spending hours on her feet fielding hostile questions. | It has, to paraphrase the dead parrot sketch, passed on. It is no more, it has ceased to be. May has already been running her Brexit strategy in the Commons in something of a masochistic way, spending hours on her feet fielding hostile questions. |
| Monday was no different but now, if anything, the tone has become even worse, moving to open ridicule. The start of May’s statement was interrupted several times by loud laughter from MPs, once when she insisted there was broad support for much of the deal. Conservative party internal discipline has more or less entirely disappeared and her would-be leadership rivals are preparing their plans. | Monday was no different but now, if anything, the tone has become even worse, moving to open ridicule. The start of May’s statement was interrupted several times by loud laughter from MPs, once when she insisted there was broad support for much of the deal. Conservative party internal discipline has more or less entirely disappeared and her would-be leadership rivals are preparing their plans. |
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