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| On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Does Mueller Matter for 2020? | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host. | Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host. |
| Does the Mueller report matter? | Does the Mueller report matter? |
| O.K., I’m being slightly provocative here. Of course it matters — for American democracy, for the Trump administration, and definitely for the 34 people Robert S. Mueller III indicted along the way. | O.K., I’m being slightly provocative here. Of course it matters — for American democracy, for the Trump administration, and definitely for the 34 people Robert S. Mueller III indicted along the way. |
| The fact that the president did not collude with Russians to pervert our democratic process is an outcome every American should cheer. And the White House is certainly right to be overjoyed: This is a victory for President Trump, lifting the fog of a special counsel investigation that had blanketed his presidency. | The fact that the president did not collude with Russians to pervert our democratic process is an outcome every American should cheer. And the White House is certainly right to be overjoyed: This is a victory for President Trump, lifting the fog of a special counsel investigation that had blanketed his presidency. |
| But I would like to humbly submit that early reports of its influence on Mr. Trump’s re-election strength — or weakness — have been vastly overstated. | But I would like to humbly submit that early reports of its influence on Mr. Trump’s re-election strength — or weakness — have been vastly overstated. |
| I spent Saturday on the New Hampshire seacoast talking to Democrats about the Mueller investigation — a topic that did not come up at campaign events over the weekend, amid questions about health care, school shootings and climate change. When I asked voters why, the answer was almost always the same: Regardless of what the report said, they were sure Mr. Trump had done something wrong. | I spent Saturday on the New Hampshire seacoast talking to Democrats about the Mueller investigation — a topic that did not come up at campaign events over the weekend, amid questions about health care, school shootings and climate change. When I asked voters why, the answer was almost always the same: Regardless of what the report said, they were sure Mr. Trump had done something wrong. |
| Here’s how Jim Sullivan, a 72-year-old retiree, put it, after listening to Senator Amy Klobuchar at a town-hall meeting: ”I’d like to ask if she would support jail time for him.” | Here’s how Jim Sullivan, a 72-year-old retiree, put it, after listening to Senator Amy Klobuchar at a town-hall meeting: ”I’d like to ask if she would support jail time for him.” |
| Most Americans have already made up their minds about the president; it’s hard to see this report ushering a massive shift in public opinion. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found that only 5 percent of registered voters said they had no opinion about the president. A whopping 77 percent expressed strong opinions, on either side. | Most Americans have already made up their minds about the president; it’s hard to see this report ushering a massive shift in public opinion. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found that only 5 percent of registered voters said they had no opinion about the president. A whopping 77 percent expressed strong opinions, on either side. |
| In our hyperpartisan political world, the idea that the outcome of the special counsel investigation would dramatically reset dynamic of the 2020 race never felt particularly realistic. | In our hyperpartisan political world, the idea that the outcome of the special counsel investigation would dramatically reset dynamic of the 2020 race never felt particularly realistic. |
| Are some Democrats deflated by the findings? Sure. But as Speaker Nancy Pelosi made clear a few weeks ago, impeachment under a Republican-controlled Senate was always a liberal pipe dream. Voters seem to recognize that: Polling by CNN last week showed that Democratic support for impeachment proceedings has fallen since the midterms. This report won’t significantly deflate their enthusiasm for defeating Mr. Trump. | Are some Democrats deflated by the findings? Sure. But as Speaker Nancy Pelosi made clear a few weeks ago, impeachment under a Republican-controlled Senate was always a liberal pipe dream. Voters seem to recognize that: Polling by CNN last week showed that Democratic support for impeachment proceedings has fallen since the midterms. This report won’t significantly deflate their enthusiasm for defeating Mr. Trump. |
| Are conservative Republicans bolstered by the findings? Of course. They see it as a vindication of an argument they’ve been making for months: Mr. Trump is the victim of a “witch hunt.” Attorney General William P. Barr’s positive interpretation of Mr. Mueller’s report will energize Mr. Trump’s base — but we are still 20 months from Election Day. A lot can, and likely will, happen with these findings in the next 588 days. | Are conservative Republicans bolstered by the findings? Of course. They see it as a vindication of an argument they’ve been making for months: Mr. Trump is the victim of a “witch hunt.” Attorney General William P. Barr’s positive interpretation of Mr. Mueller’s report will energize Mr. Trump’s base — but we are still 20 months from Election Day. A lot can, and likely will, happen with these findings in the next 588 days. |
| The most significant political consequence of the Mueller report may be whether it sways those moderate Republicans turned off by Mr. Trump’s inflammatory style, particularly women in those suburban districts that sided with Democrats in 2018. | The most significant political consequence of the Mueller report may be whether it sways those moderate Republicans turned off by Mr. Trump’s inflammatory style, particularly women in those suburban districts that sided with Democrats in 2018. |
| We don’t know the answer to that question yet. But it’s far to say that a lot of it will depend on how Mr. Trump handles the fallout from this investigation — and the myriad inquiries still being pursued by congressional Democrats and New York prosecutors. | |
| Can’t stop reading about this weekend’s bombshell? Peter Baker and Jonathan Martin analyze what it all means. We collect reaction across the political spectrum. And, here’s how Russia is receiving the news. | Can’t stop reading about this weekend’s bombshell? Peter Baker and Jonathan Martin analyze what it all means. We collect reaction across the political spectrum. And, here’s how Russia is receiving the news. |
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| Drop us a line! | Drop us a line! |
| We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. | We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. |
| ____________________ | ____________________ |
| This is The Soapbox, a forum for you to share your thoughts with us and your fellow On Politics readers. In today’s edition, readers sound off the movement to end the Electoral College. | This is The Soapbox, a forum for you to share your thoughts with us and your fellow On Politics readers. In today’s edition, readers sound off the movement to end the Electoral College. |
| A large majority of responses were in support of ending the Electoral College, including this one from Gary Allen of Maryland: | A large majority of responses were in support of ending the Electoral College, including this one from Gary Allen of Maryland: |
| The presidential election should be based on the national popular vote. The House is gerrymandered, the Senate represents states regardless of population, the Supreme Court is appointed. At least one element of government ought to be based on “one citizen one vote.” | The presidential election should be based on the national popular vote. The House is gerrymandered, the Senate represents states regardless of population, the Supreme Court is appointed. At least one element of government ought to be based on “one citizen one vote.” |
| A few readers wrote in to defend the Electoral College. Here’s a note we got from Edna Lampke: | A few readers wrote in to defend the Electoral College. Here’s a note we got from Edna Lampke: |
| Only several states would decide the elections otherwise! Then the majority of America would stop voting altogether. Very unfair. | Only several states would decide the elections otherwise! Then the majority of America would stop voting altogether. Very unfair. |
| Margaret Dickerson of Texas said a popular vote would make her feel like her vote actually counted: | Margaret Dickerson of Texas said a popular vote would make her feel like her vote actually counted: |
| I support abolishing the Electoral College. I am a liberal Democrat and I live deep in the heart of Texas. Therefore my presidential vote literally doesn’t count. All votes should count. | I support abolishing the Electoral College. I am a liberal Democrat and I live deep in the heart of Texas. Therefore my presidential vote literally doesn’t count. All votes should count. |
| Sara Bhakti of Washington State wondered whether there was a third option: | Sara Bhakti of Washington State wondered whether there was a third option: |
| In a high school civics class, we were taught that the Electoral College protected the influence of states with smaller populations from the “tyranny of the majority.” That reasoning is compelling to progressive liberal me. I wonder what a truly fair system would look like — perhaps instant runoff voting? | In a high school civics class, we were taught that the Electoral College protected the influence of states with smaller populations from the “tyranny of the majority.” That reasoning is compelling to progressive liberal me. I wonder what a truly fair system would look like — perhaps instant runoff voting? |
| And finally, Ed Siebel of California reminded us that this debate is not exactly novel in the world of politics: | And finally, Ed Siebel of California reminded us that this debate is not exactly novel in the world of politics: |
| In 1955-56, the topic in the NFL (you knew that’s the National Forensic League?) considered by high school debate teams was: “Resolved: the Electoral College should be abolished.” I ‘spect this has been considered in detail for some time prior to that, as well. | In 1955-56, the topic in the NFL (you knew that’s the National Forensic League?) considered by high school debate teams was: “Resolved: the Electoral College should be abolished.” I ‘spect this has been considered in detail for some time prior to that, as well. |
| If you want to share your thoughts, send us an email: onpolitics@nytimes.com. | If you want to share your thoughts, send us an email: onpolitics@nytimes.com. |
| ____________________ | ____________________ |
| • The number of female solo travelers has skyrocketed. But amid the Instagram-worthy adventures are tales of violence, raising questions about how the world is greeting women who travel alone. | • The number of female solo travelers has skyrocketed. But amid the Instagram-worthy adventures are tales of violence, raising questions about how the world is greeting women who travel alone. |
| • Despite full Democratic control over state government, a monthslong effort to legalize marijuana in New Jersey collapsed on Monday. | • Despite full Democratic control over state government, a monthslong effort to legalize marijuana in New Jersey collapsed on Monday. |
| • This story from Westword talks to survivors of the Columbine High School shooting. Nearly 20 years later, they still live with the trauma of that day. | • This story from Westword talks to survivors of the Columbine High School shooting. Nearly 20 years later, they still live with the trauma of that day. |
| ____________________ | ____________________ |
| National Puppy Day was this weekend — in other words, an excuse to post a picture of my dog! | National Puppy Day was this weekend — in other words, an excuse to post a picture of my dog! |
| _____________________ | _____________________ |
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| Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world. | Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world. |
| Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. | Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. |