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| Trump Holds Rally in Pennsylvania to Help a Congressional Candidate, and Himself | |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| MONTOURSVILLE, Pa. — President Trump’s presence in a district in north central Pennsylvania was not really needed to help the Republican congressional candidate who is heavily favored in a special election on Tuesday. | |
| The rally the president held on Monday night in Montoursville, and in a week that he is also headed to Japan, was really about his own political fate — and how vital Pennsylvania, and the central part of the state in particular, is to his chances for winning a second term. | |
| It is an area replete with culturally conservative, white, working-class voters whose energy in 2016 delivered the state’s 20 electoral votes by less than one percentage point to Mr. Trump over Hillary Clinton. | It is an area replete with culturally conservative, white, working-class voters whose energy in 2016 delivered the state’s 20 electoral votes by less than one percentage point to Mr. Trump over Hillary Clinton. |
| That kind of victory will not be easy to replicate. | |
| “Everybody who voted for him in 2016 will vote for him again,” said Val DiGiorgio, the chairman of the Republican Party in Pennsylvania, who spoke before Mr. Trump. “The question is, where do you pick up more votes and what is the intensity going to be for both sides?” | |
| The president did his best to stoke enthusiasm, even having a pilot’s call to air traffic control piped into an airport hangar as the rallygoers watched Air Force One land. | |
| “The unemployment rate in Pennsylvania just reached an all-time historic low,” Mr. Trump said. “That’s a pretty good stat. How do you beat that?” | |
| He went on to say that he had ended the Obama administration’s “eight-year war” on energy. In fact, fracking of natural gas in Pennsylvania and Ohio increased under President Barack Obama and contributed to his victories in those states in 2012. | |
| After ticking off a list of economic accomplishments, Mr. Trump said, “How in the hell do you lose this election, right?” | |
| Before 2016, Democrats had won six straight presidential contests in Pennsylvania. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who was born in Scranton and whose 2020 presidential campaign has drawn special attention from Mr. Trump, has made clear that he will try to win back his share of ancestral Democrats in the state. Mr. Biden held a large rally on Saturday in Philadelphia, where he established his campaign headquarters. | Before 2016, Democrats had won six straight presidential contests in Pennsylvania. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who was born in Scranton and whose 2020 presidential campaign has drawn special attention from Mr. Trump, has made clear that he will try to win back his share of ancestral Democrats in the state. Mr. Biden held a large rally on Saturday in Philadelphia, where he established his campaign headquarters. |
| For Democrats, the state offers a referendum on the approach the party will take to try to defeat Mr. Trump, measured by how much effort it puts into winning back voters in rural areas as opposed to racking up formidable margins in cities and suburbs. | For Democrats, the state offers a referendum on the approach the party will take to try to defeat Mr. Trump, measured by how much effort it puts into winning back voters in rural areas as opposed to racking up formidable margins in cities and suburbs. |
| “No doubt it’s about next year,” said G. Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., who has also polled the state for three decades. | “No doubt it’s about next year,” said G. Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., who has also polled the state for three decades. |
| The district holding the special election, the 12th, “may be solid Republican, but it’s also about Trump coming back to his base here in the state,” Mr. Madonna added. | The district holding the special election, the 12th, “may be solid Republican, but it’s also about Trump coming back to his base here in the state,” Mr. Madonna added. |
| “His voters need encouragement, and the level of their turnout is essential,” he said. | “His voters need encouragement, and the level of their turnout is essential,” he said. |
| A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden in Pennsylvania, 53 to 42. Mr. Biden’s lead was attributable to a sizable edge among women, 60 to 36, while Mr. Trump held a 49-to-45 advantage among men. | A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden in Pennsylvania, 53 to 42. Mr. Biden’s lead was attributable to a sizable edge among women, 60 to 36, while Mr. Trump held a 49-to-45 advantage among men. |
| The president is trailing Mr. Biden even though more than half of the poll respondents said they were better off financially than they were in 2016. The unemployment rate in Lycoming County is 4.7 percent, and while low, the rate was a percentage point lower during the latter half of President Bill Clinton’s second term. The county is 90 percent white and decidedly Republican. Democrats tend to rack up votes in the southern portion of the district, which is home to Penn State. | The president is trailing Mr. Biden even though more than half of the poll respondents said they were better off financially than they were in 2016. The unemployment rate in Lycoming County is 4.7 percent, and while low, the rate was a percentage point lower during the latter half of President Bill Clinton’s second term. The county is 90 percent white and decidedly Republican. Democrats tend to rack up votes in the southern portion of the district, which is home to Penn State. |
| Mr. Trump also trailed the 2020 Democratic candidates Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and he was tied with Senator Kamala Harris of California. | Mr. Trump also trailed the 2020 Democratic candidates Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and he was tied with Senator Kamala Harris of California. |
| On Monday night in Montoursville, Karen Paris and her husband, Keith, a pastor, drove about an hour from Mansfield, Pa., to hear the president, whom she said they supported “from the first day” and remained fervently behind him. | |
| “He’s doing everything he promised he’d do, and we like it,” Mrs. Paris said. “And we really didn’t like Mrs. Clinton.” | |
| And, as if on cue, when Mr. Trump mentioned Mrs. Clinton, the crowd responded with a now ritual chant of “lock her up.” | |
| The special election was prompted by the unexpected retirement in January of the 12th District’s Republican congressman, Representative Tom Marino, two weeks after he was sworn in for his fifth term. The Republican nominee, Fred Keller, a state legislator, is facing Marc Friedenberg, the Democratic nominee and a professor at Penn State, who lost to Mr. Marino in the November midterm election by 32 points. | The special election was prompted by the unexpected retirement in January of the 12th District’s Republican congressman, Representative Tom Marino, two weeks after he was sworn in for his fifth term. The Republican nominee, Fred Keller, a state legislator, is facing Marc Friedenberg, the Democratic nominee and a professor at Penn State, who lost to Mr. Marino in the November midterm election by 32 points. |
| But for the most part, the 2018 midterms signified a strong comeback for Democrats in Pennsylvania, with Gov. Tom Wolf and Senator Bob Casey easily winning and carrying counties that Mr. Trump won in 2016. Democrats also won three congressional districts from Republicans. | But for the most part, the 2018 midterms signified a strong comeback for Democrats in Pennsylvania, with Gov. Tom Wolf and Senator Bob Casey easily winning and carrying counties that Mr. Trump won in 2016. Democrats also won three congressional districts from Republicans. |
| “The Democrats were more enthusiastic about voting, and, most important, they made big in roads in the Philly suburbs — so essential in statewide elections,” Mr. Madonna said. | “The Democrats were more enthusiastic about voting, and, most important, they made big in roads in the Philly suburbs — so essential in statewide elections,” Mr. Madonna said. |
| Mr. DiGiorgio said he was advising the Trump campaign to have the president hold events in Philadelphia to help expand his support. | Mr. DiGiorgio said he was advising the Trump campaign to have the president hold events in Philadelphia to help expand his support. |
| “If he goes into the black and the Latino wards and tells them all he has accomplished for them, it will resonate,” Mr. DiGiorgio said. “And it will resonate in the suburbs, too, if he shows he cares and talks about health care and education.” | “If he goes into the black and the Latino wards and tells them all he has accomplished for them, it will resonate,” Mr. DiGiorgio said. “And it will resonate in the suburbs, too, if he shows he cares and talks about health care and education.” |
| Mr. Trump’s trade policies have so far been problematic in the state, helping some in domestic manufacturing while causing pain in the agricultural sector. Senator Patrick J. Toomey, a Republican, has been critical of Mr. Trump on many trade issues, though he said he was supportive so far of the president’s approach to China. | Mr. Trump’s trade policies have so far been problematic in the state, helping some in domestic manufacturing while causing pain in the agricultural sector. Senator Patrick J. Toomey, a Republican, has been critical of Mr. Trump on many trade issues, though he said he was supportive so far of the president’s approach to China. |
| Mr. Friedenberg has tried to make the president’s tariff policies an animating issue, while the president called has him a “radical socialist.” | |
| Mr. Keller, meanwhile, has been a strong supporter of the president, posting this month on Twitter that he was “excited to welcome @realDonaldTrump for his first visit to #PA12 during his Administration and to highlight the work he is doing on behalf of every PA family.” | Mr. Keller, meanwhile, has been a strong supporter of the president, posting this month on Twitter that he was “excited to welcome @realDonaldTrump for his first visit to #PA12 during his Administration and to highlight the work he is doing on behalf of every PA family.” |
| The formula for winning the state, Mr. Madonna said, was “don’t repeat Hillary Clinton’s mistake and ignore the working-class voters in the Northeast and Southwest.” | The formula for winning the state, Mr. Madonna said, was “don’t repeat Hillary Clinton’s mistake and ignore the working-class voters in the Northeast and Southwest.” |
| “Develop an agenda on trade and industry that appeals to them,” he added. “These voters delivered the state for Trump.” | “Develop an agenda on trade and industry that appeals to them,” he added. “These voters delivered the state for Trump.” |