No-deal Brexit is still unlikely – but once again parliament has not ruled it out

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/no-deal-brexit-parliament-remainer

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It happened again. Parliament was offered a clear route to take back control, and it promptly handed the ball back to the government. Late Wednesday afternoon, by a margin of 309 votes to 298, MPs decided not to commandeer the parliamentary timetable in order to legislate against no deal.

The first thing to stress here is that parliament has not decided to back no deal. It has not given the government carte blanche, and it certainly hasn’t resolved not to enact legislation in the future. Rather, MPs have decided, on this occasion, to reject what many saw as an opposition power-grab, and certainly what many Conservatives view as an affront to the constitution. Our all-important conventions dictate that ministers, not the opposition or backbenchers, run the legislative agenda.

MPs defeat motion seeking to block no-deal Brexit

There were plenty of reasons MPs did not back Labour’s motion. The government (at least under the current prime minister) has not signalled its intention to leave the EU without a deal, the deadline is still four months away, and many Tory loyalists will have decided not to rock the boat. Some feared the lack of clarity in Labour’s intentions (Brexit secretary Steve Barclay duly cautioned against a “blind motion”), while the whips reassured others that this was not their last chance to prevent a crash-out. And of course, MPs will have many other opportunities to seize control of parliamentary time before we reach the precipice.

Consider which MPs filed through the lobbies. Although 10 Tories did vote with Labour today, many other sympathetic remainers stayed loyal. Two former ministers who earlier this year resigned to prevent no deal, Alistair Burt and Sarah Newton, voted with the government, as did Jo Johnson, who resigned to back a new referendum. Furthermore, a few committed supporters of a people’s vote, such as Labour’s Jo Stevens and Julie Elliott, and ex-Change UK MP Angela Smith, did not record votes. This was neither a definitive victory nor the final word.

In a ‘no deal’ scenario, the UK would leave the single market and the customs union immediately with no ‘divorce’ arrangement in place. The European Court of Justice would cease to have jurisdiction over the UK, and the country would also leave various other institutions including Euratom and Europol.

The UK would no longer be paying into the EU budget, nor would it hand over the £39bn divorce payment. There would be no transition period. Free movement of people into the UK from the EU27 would stop.

Trade between the UK and the EU would be governed by basic WTO rules. The UK government has already indicated that it will set low or no tariffs on goods coming into the country. This would lower the price of imports - making it harder for British manufacturers to compete with foreign goods. If the UK sets the tariffs to zero on goods coming in from the EU, under WTO ‘most favoured nation’ rules it must also offer the same zero tariffs to other countries.

WTO rules only cover goods - they do not apply to financial services, a significant part of the UK’s economy. Trading under WTO rules will also require border checks, which could cause delays at ports, and a severe challenge to the peace process in Ireland without alternative arrangements in place to avoid a hard border.

Some ‘No Deal’ supporters have claimed that the UK can use Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt) to force the EU to accept a period of up to ten years where there are no tariffs while a free trade agreement (FTA) is negotiated. However, the UK cannot invoke Article 24 unilaterally - the EU would have to agree to it. In previous cases where the article has been used, the two sides had a deal in place, and it has never been used to replicate something of the scale and complexity of the EU and the UK’s trading relationship.

Until some agreements are in place, a ‘no deal’ scenario will place extra overheads on UK businesses - for example the current government advice is that all drivers, including lorries and commercial vehicles, will require extra documentation to be able to drive in Europe after 31 October if there is no deal. Those arguing for a ‘managed’ no deal envisage that a range of smaller sector-by-sector bilateral agreements could be quickly put into place as mutual self-interest between the UK and EU to avoid introducing or rapidly remove this kind of bureaucracy.

Martin Belam

There will always be numerous lines of defence against no deal. A prime minister has to want it and their cabinet has to back it. Then they must ensure they retain the confidence of the House of Commons. After that, MPs will still pursue legislative options to prevent the cliff-edge, as they did on Wednesday. The Speaker has indicated that he will allow them to do so and, if necessary, bend parliamentary rules to facilitate it. As we approach the October cut-off point, MPs may grow more assertive.

How did your MP vote on the opposition Brexit motion?

And yet. Even committed optimists on the remain side have to acknowledge the dangers. No-deal Brexit remains extremely unlikely but not impossible. Some MPs will not have the bravery to vote against their own side. Recent electoral results have also spooked some Labour MPs from leave areas into hardening their Brexit support. Although only eight Labour MPs opposed their party’s motion, too many others abstained.

But really all this tells us is that MPs don’t know what to do. Even Labour’s referendum-sceptics hate no deal, and not many Tory moderates find the idea of medicine shortages acceptable. At the end of a disappointing day, we are stuck in the familiar paralysis which rules out every option. The only question which really matters – whether MPs would, in the end, choose no-Brexit over no-deal – was neither asked nor answered. Soon it may have to be.

• Jonathan Lis is deputy director of the thinktank British Influence

Brexit

Opinion

House of Commons

Conservatives

Labour

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