This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/18/no-deal-brexit-would-plunge-britain-into-a-recession-says-obr
The article has changed 4 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| No-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a recession, says OBR | No-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a recession, says OBR |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| A no-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a recession that would shrink the economy by 2% by the end of next year, according to the government’s independent forecasting body. | A no-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a recession that would shrink the economy by 2% by the end of next year, according to the government’s independent forecasting body. |
| The Office for Budget Responsibility said increased uncertainty and falling confidence would deter investment and hit trade. | The Office for Budget Responsibility said increased uncertainty and falling confidence would deter investment and hit trade. |
| In its latest fiscal risks report, the OBR said: “Together, these push the economy into recession, with asset prices and the pound falling sharply. | In its latest fiscal risks report, the OBR said: “Together, these push the economy into recession, with asset prices and the pound falling sharply. |
| Britain at risk of 'full-blown' recession as no-deal Brexit looms - business live | Britain at risk of 'full-blown' recession as no-deal Brexit looms - business live |
| “Real GDP falls by 2% by the end of 2020 and is 4% below our March forecast by that point.” | “Real GDP falls by 2% by the end of 2020 and is 4% below our March forecast by that point.” |
| The Office for Budget Responsibility is the government’s independent forecaster, which gives its verdict on the outlook for growth and the public finances twice a year. | |
| The forecasts are published to coincide with the chancellor’s two big set pieces of the year – the autumn budget and the spring statement – and takes into account the impact of any tax and spending measures announced in those statements. | |
| The OBR also uses its public finances forecasts to judge the Treasury’s performance against the chancellor’s fiscal targets, stating whether or not it has a greater than 50% chance of hitting the targets under current policy. | |
| It was established in 2010 by the then chancellor George Osborne with the aim of improving the credibility of the government’s official forecasts for growth. The forecasts were previously produced by the Treasury itself and often criticised for being unrealistic. | |
| The OBR is led by three members of the budget responsibility committee, including chairman Robert Chote, a former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, with support from the OBR’s permanent staff of 27 civil servants. | |
| Speaking at a press conference to launch the report, the OBR chairman, Robert Chote, said: “The big picture is that heightened uncertainty and declining confidence deter investment, higher trade barriers with the EU weigh on domestic and foreign demand, while the pound and other asset prices fall sharply. | Speaking at a press conference to launch the report, the OBR chairman, Robert Chote, said: “The big picture is that heightened uncertainty and declining confidence deter investment, higher trade barriers with the EU weigh on domestic and foreign demand, while the pound and other asset prices fall sharply. |
| “These factors combine to push the economy into recession.” | “These factors combine to push the economy into recession.” |
| Until now the OBR had been assuming there would be a smooth Brexit when coming up with its forecasts, but it said the willingness of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt to contemplate a no-deal departure meant it was stress-testing alternative scenarios. | |
| The OBR said leaving without a deal would add £30bn a year to borrowing from 2020-21 onwards and 12% of GDP to net debt by 2023-24. | The OBR said leaving without a deal would add £30bn a year to borrowing from 2020-21 onwards and 12% of GDP to net debt by 2023-24. |
| “A more disruptive or disorderly scenario could hit the public finances much harder,” the OBR said. | “A more disruptive or disorderly scenario could hit the public finances much harder,” the OBR said. |
| The OBR used the IMF model of the economy to make its forecasts. | The OBR used the IMF model of the economy to make its forecasts. |
| Office for Budget Responsibility | Office for Budget Responsibility |
| Brexit | Brexit |
| Economics | Economics |
| Economic growth (GDP) | Economic growth (GDP) |
| International trade | International trade |
| Boris Johnson | Boris Johnson |
| Jeremy Hunt | Jeremy Hunt |
| news | news |
| Share on Facebook | Share on Facebook |
| Share on Twitter | Share on Twitter |
| Share via Email | Share via Email |
| Share on LinkedIn | Share on LinkedIn |
| Share on Pinterest | Share on Pinterest |
| Share on WhatsApp | Share on WhatsApp |
| Share on Messenger | Share on Messenger |
| Reuse this content | Reuse this content |