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Good News for Shinzo Abe: Japan’s Young Voters Lean Right, if They Vote at All Good News for Shinzo Abe: Japan’s Young Voters Lean Right, if They Vote at All
(32 minutes later)
TOKYO — Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to move a step closer to his dream of becoming Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, with his party heavily favored to win a parliamentary election on Sunday.TOKYO — Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to move a step closer to his dream of becoming Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, with his party heavily favored to win a parliamentary election on Sunday.
For a clue to that likely win, consider Ko Watanabe, 25, a newly minted software engineer in Tokyo.For a clue to that likely win, consider Ko Watanabe, 25, a newly minted software engineer in Tokyo.
Mr. Watanabe is not quite sure what Mr. Abe means when he talks about revising the country’s pacifist Constitution. With family from Hiroshima and a great-grandfather who survived the atomic bombing there, Mr. Watanabe does not support Mr. Abe’s plan to restart nuclear plants idled since a devastating earthquake and tsunami caused the Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown nine years ago. He does not believe Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party has been transparent about a possible shortfall in the nation’s pension system.Mr. Watanabe is not quite sure what Mr. Abe means when he talks about revising the country’s pacifist Constitution. With family from Hiroshima and a great-grandfather who survived the atomic bombing there, Mr. Watanabe does not support Mr. Abe’s plan to restart nuclear plants idled since a devastating earthquake and tsunami caused the Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown nine years ago. He does not believe Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party has been transparent about a possible shortfall in the nation’s pension system.
Yet come Sunday, Mr. Watanabe plans to vote for the right-leaning Liberal Democrats, as he has done since he was old enough to go to the polls.Yet come Sunday, Mr. Watanabe plans to vote for the right-leaning Liberal Democrats, as he has done since he was old enough to go to the polls.
Mr. Watanabe, on a lunch break downstairs from his office in a fashionable building in the Tokyo neighborhood of Shibuya, said he was just choosing the most secure option among a lackluster bunch.Mr. Watanabe, on a lunch break downstairs from his office in a fashionable building in the Tokyo neighborhood of Shibuya, said he was just choosing the most secure option among a lackluster bunch.
After reading up on different party platforms in recent weeks, Mr. Watanabe, who fielded 10 job offers after he graduated with a master’s degree in informatics this spring, admitted that the Liberal Democrats’ agenda is “not clear.” But the agenda of the opposition parties, he said, “is really not clear.”After reading up on different party platforms in recent weeks, Mr. Watanabe, who fielded 10 job offers after he graduated with a master’s degree in informatics this spring, admitted that the Liberal Democrats’ agenda is “not clear.” But the agenda of the opposition parties, he said, “is really not clear.”
Mr. Watanabe is representative of his generation, whose members have been among the strongest supporters of Mr. Abe’s administration.Mr. Watanabe is representative of his generation, whose members have been among the strongest supporters of Mr. Abe’s administration.
A recent poll by the left-leaning Asahi Shimbun newspaper showed the Abe administration’s approval rate was 45 percent among respondents under 30, higher than the 35 percent approval rating among those in their 60s.A recent poll by the left-leaning Asahi Shimbun newspaper showed the Abe administration’s approval rate was 45 percent among respondents under 30, higher than the 35 percent approval rating among those in their 60s.
A survey late last month by the Nikkei Shimbun, an economic newspaper, indicated an even wider generational gap, with three-fifths of those in their 20s supporting the Abe administration, compared with 35 percent for respondents in their 60s.A survey late last month by the Nikkei Shimbun, an economic newspaper, indicated an even wider generational gap, with three-fifths of those in their 20s supporting the Abe administration, compared with 35 percent for respondents in their 60s.
Although a stunning upset is always possible, polls show the Liberal Democrats leading all other opposition parties in Sunday’s upper house election by large margins. Political scientists say youth support for Mr. Abe’s party comes less from a conservative ideology than from a fear of upsetting the current stability.Although a stunning upset is always possible, polls show the Liberal Democrats leading all other opposition parties in Sunday’s upper house election by large margins. Political scientists say youth support for Mr. Abe’s party comes less from a conservative ideology than from a fear of upsetting the current stability.
Although the economy is far from booming, the demographics of a declining population and an aging society have tilted in favor of young workers, who are now hotly sought after in the job market.Although the economy is far from booming, the demographics of a declining population and an aging society have tilted in favor of young workers, who are now hotly sought after in the job market.
Since Mr. Abe came to power in 2012, conditions have been largely calm. Memories of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster are not so immediate. For close to two years, North Korean missile tests have not been flying over Japan. A new emperor was peacefully enthroned earlier this spring. Most young people are not yet worried about their pensions.Since Mr. Abe came to power in 2012, conditions have been largely calm. Memories of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster are not so immediate. For close to two years, North Korean missile tests have not been flying over Japan. A new emperor was peacefully enthroned earlier this spring. Most young people are not yet worried about their pensions.
“If you have a lot to lose, you cling to the status quo,” said Noriko Hama, an economics professor at Doshisha University Business School. “If you don’t really know what’s going to happen tomorrow, you cling to today.”“If you have a lot to lose, you cling to the status quo,” said Noriko Hama, an economics professor at Doshisha University Business School. “If you don’t really know what’s going to happen tomorrow, you cling to today.”
With stable job prospects, Ms. Hama said, young people “are really keeping their fingers crossed and hoping that this will last forever.”With stable job prospects, Ms. Hama said, young people “are really keeping their fingers crossed and hoping that this will last forever.”
The conservative-leaning young voters in Japan stand in contrast to a more leftward drift in the West. In the 2018 congressional elections in the United States, voters aged 18 to 44 voted solidly for Democrats, according to exit polls, and in the Brexit vote in Britain in 2016, young voters were far more likely to vote to stay in the European Union than older voters.The conservative-leaning young voters in Japan stand in contrast to a more leftward drift in the West. In the 2018 congressional elections in the United States, voters aged 18 to 44 voted solidly for Democrats, according to exit polls, and in the Brexit vote in Britain in 2016, young voters were far more likely to vote to stay in the European Union than older voters.
In the United States, younger voters tend to support Democrats because of “their more liberal social views on issues like the environment, ending income equality, same-sex marriages and racial inclusiveness,” said William H. Frey, a senior fellow and demographer in the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. Japanese youth, too, tend to express higher support for same-sex marriage and diversity, but that does not translate into large shifts in voting behavior.In the United States, younger voters tend to support Democrats because of “their more liberal social views on issues like the environment, ending income equality, same-sex marriages and racial inclusiveness,” said William H. Frey, a senior fellow and demographer in the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. Japanese youth, too, tend to express higher support for same-sex marriage and diversity, but that does not translate into large shifts in voting behavior.
Concerns about Japan’s turn toward nationalism or a more aggressive military posture under Mr. Abe do not resonate as much with the young, political scientists say. “The youth are further from the trauma of the postwar tragedy,” said Gregory W. Noble, a professor of comparative political economy at Tokyo University.Concerns about Japan’s turn toward nationalism or a more aggressive military posture under Mr. Abe do not resonate as much with the young, political scientists say. “The youth are further from the trauma of the postwar tragedy,” said Gregory W. Noble, a professor of comparative political economy at Tokyo University.
Underpinning that complacency is the fact that political activity is rare in Japan. Political teaching is frowned upon.Underpinning that complacency is the fact that political activity is rare in Japan. Political teaching is frowned upon.
“If some teachers teach about the political situation and the students go home and they tell their parents, ‘Today my teacher talked about the Liberal Democrats and the Communist Party,’ the parent will probably call the school to complain,” said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor of media and communications who specializes in politics at Toyo University.“If some teachers teach about the political situation and the students go home and they tell their parents, ‘Today my teacher talked about the Liberal Democrats and the Communist Party,’ the parent will probably call the school to complain,” said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor of media and communications who specializes in politics at Toyo University.
Student activism on campuses is not as fervent as it is in the United States. Political demonstrations tend to be dominated by older generations.Student activism on campuses is not as fervent as it is in the United States. Political demonstrations tend to be dominated by older generations.
“Young people are just not active, period,” said Willy Jou, an associate professor of political science at Waseda University. “A lot of young people were active in the 1960s, but most of their demands never found their way into the decision-making process of the government,” which led to apathy among the young.“Young people are just not active, period,” said Willy Jou, an associate professor of political science at Waseda University. “A lot of young people were active in the 1960s, but most of their demands never found their way into the decision-making process of the government,” which led to apathy among the young.
Four years ago, there was a brief flowering of protest led by young activists who opposed legislation spearheaded by Mr. Abe to give Japan’s military limited powers to fight in foreign conflicts. But Mr. Abe defied broad public opposition to push through the law, deflating the hopes of those who engaged in activism.Four years ago, there was a brief flowering of protest led by young activists who opposed legislation spearheaded by Mr. Abe to give Japan’s military limited powers to fight in foreign conflicts. But Mr. Abe defied broad public opposition to push through the law, deflating the hopes of those who engaged in activism.
A sense that protest is largely impotent may have turned some young voters off politics altogether — along with broader anxiety about standing out or engaging in conflict.A sense that protest is largely impotent may have turned some young voters off politics altogether — along with broader anxiety about standing out or engaging in conflict.
Wakako Fukuda, a co-founder of Students Emergency Action for Liberal Democracy, one of the more prominent youth-led groups during those demonstrations, said young voters have been trained not to ask tough questions or disagree with authority.Wakako Fukuda, a co-founder of Students Emergency Action for Liberal Democracy, one of the more prominent youth-led groups during those demonstrations, said young voters have been trained not to ask tough questions or disagree with authority.
“No opinion is the best opinion,” said Ms. Fukuda, 25. “All we do at school is memorize, memorize, memorize and follow the rules of the teachers. No matter how inconvenient or inappropriate it seems, if someone in power says ‘do it,’ we do it. That’s how we grow up.”“No opinion is the best opinion,” said Ms. Fukuda, 25. “All we do at school is memorize, memorize, memorize and follow the rules of the teachers. No matter how inconvenient or inappropriate it seems, if someone in power says ‘do it,’ we do it. That’s how we grow up.”
Those who do support opposition parties do so less from grievance with the governing party than to support particular issues. Anna Namikawa, 26, a publicist for a local company in Kameoka City, near Kyoto, said she was trying to choose between two parties because of their energy policies and their stance on plastic waste. But in general, “I’m very optimistic,” she said. “Whenever I’m asked if I have any worries, I’d answer no.”Those who do support opposition parties do so less from grievance with the governing party than to support particular issues. Anna Namikawa, 26, a publicist for a local company in Kameoka City, near Kyoto, said she was trying to choose between two parties because of their energy policies and their stance on plastic waste. But in general, “I’m very optimistic,” she said. “Whenever I’m asked if I have any worries, I’d answer no.”
Others are more cavalier. Kenta Hikichi, 23, a career counselor for university students, voted early but could not remember who or what party he voted for — just that he voted against the Liberal Democrats.Others are more cavalier. Kenta Hikichi, 23, a career counselor for university students, voted early but could not remember who or what party he voted for — just that he voted against the Liberal Democrats.
“Every time I cast a vote for a party that I’ve never heard of,” said Mr. Hikichi, whose aspirational facial hair underscored his youth. “Since nothing is going to change, I don’t want my vote to have much of an influence.”“Every time I cast a vote for a party that I’ve never heard of,” said Mr. Hikichi, whose aspirational facial hair underscored his youth. “Since nothing is going to change, I don’t want my vote to have much of an influence.”
Perhaps one defining characteristic of young Japanese is that many of them simply do not vote. Turnout among those in their 20s and 30s is usually very low. And it was only in 2016 that 18 and 19 year olds were allowed to vote. In that year’s upper house parliamentary election, about a third of those in their 20s turned out to vote. Among the newly enfranchised teenagers, just over half of 18 year olds voted, while less than two-fifths of the 19 year olds did. Perhaps one defining characteristic of young Japanese is that many of them simply do not vote. Turnout among those in their 20s and 30s is usually low. And it was only in 2016 that 18- and 19-year-olds were allowed to vote. In that year’s upper house parliamentary election, about a third of those in their 20s turned out to vote. Among the newly enfranchised teenagers, just over half of 18-year-olds voted, while less than two-fifths of the 19-year-olds did.
Yuna Matsumoto, 31, who quit working for a real estate company to start her own beauty advice YouTube channel, said she had only voted once. “I have no interest at all,” she said. “Honestly, I was like, ‘Oh, there’s an election happening now?’” Yuna Matsumoto, 31, who quit working for a real estate company to start her own beauty advice YouTube channel, said she had voted only once. “I have no interest at all,” she said. “Honestly, I was like, ‘Oh, there’s an election happening now?’”
She says her husband talks about politics, and if she does vote, she will probably support Mr. Abe’s party.She says her husband talks about politics, and if she does vote, she will probably support Mr. Abe’s party.
“In the long years that the Liberal Democrats have been the ruling party,” Ms. Matsumoto said, “I’ve never really struggled with my life.”“In the long years that the Liberal Democrats have been the ruling party,” Ms. Matsumoto said, “I’ve never really struggled with my life.”