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| Poland’s Law and Justice Party Holds Onto Power, Early Vote Shows | Poland’s Law and Justice Party Holds Onto Power, Early Vote Shows |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| WARSAW — Poland’s populist ruling party appeared to have been swept back into power on Sunday, as voters dismissed concerns about the autocratic drift of the government and rewarded the party for its generous social welfare programs. | WARSAW — Poland’s populist ruling party appeared to have been swept back into power on Sunday, as voters dismissed concerns about the autocratic drift of the government and rewarded the party for its generous social welfare programs. |
| The Law and Justice party secured its mandate, according to exit polls, by promoting a brand of aggrieved nationalism that resonated in the country’s rural heartland and the towns in the east of the country that have not kept pace with wealthier cities in the west. | The Law and Justice party secured its mandate, according to exit polls, by promoting a brand of aggrieved nationalism that resonated in the country’s rural heartland and the towns in the east of the country that have not kept pace with wealthier cities in the west. |
| Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the party’s leader and the chief architect of its policies, noted the deep divisions in the country even as he promised to continue reshaping the nation in fundamental ways. | Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the party’s leader and the chief architect of its policies, noted the deep divisions in the country even as he promised to continue reshaping the nation in fundamental ways. |
| “We have reasons to be happy,” he told supporters Sunday night after the polls closed. “The good change will continue. But we will need to reflect upon the things that we have done right as well as the things at which we have failed, because a significant portion of the society does not support us.” | “We have reasons to be happy,” he told supporters Sunday night after the polls closed. “The good change will continue. But we will need to reflect upon the things that we have done right as well as the things at which we have failed, because a significant portion of the society does not support us.” |
| Mr. Kaczynski said some people had been manipulated into thinking that “we are doing something that will hurt them in the long run.” | Mr. Kaczynski said some people had been manipulated into thinking that “we are doing something that will hurt them in the long run.” |
| “We are doing no such things,” he said. “Poland needs to keep changing, and needs to change for the better.” | “We are doing no such things,” he said. “Poland needs to keep changing, and needs to change for the better.” |
| For three decades, Poland was held up as a paragon of how a country could peacefully transition from authoritarian rule to liberal democracy. Some also offered it as proof that a capitalist society allows men and women to flourish, while communism crushes the soul and saps the spirit. | For three decades, Poland was held up as a paragon of how a country could peacefully transition from authoritarian rule to liberal democracy. Some also offered it as proof that a capitalist society allows men and women to flourish, while communism crushes the soul and saps the spirit. |
| But in its most important vote since the first, partly-free election of 1989, many Poles worried that the fate of democracy itself was under threat. They turned out in record numbers, with more than 61 percent taking part in the election, the highest number since those first elections. | But in its most important vote since the first, partly-free election of 1989, many Poles worried that the fate of democracy itself was under threat. They turned out in record numbers, with more than 61 percent taking part in the election, the highest number since those first elections. |
| Leaders of the biggest opposition coalition made an appeal to wait for final results. | Leaders of the biggest opposition coalition made an appeal to wait for final results. |
| “This is and was a celebration of democracy,” said Grzegorz Schetyna from Civic Coalition. “Though this wasn’t a fair fight, there were no rules. We didn’t feel that this was a fair fight.” | “This is and was a celebration of democracy,” said Grzegorz Schetyna from Civic Coalition. “Though this wasn’t a fair fight, there were no rules. We didn’t feel that this was a fair fight.” |
| In the four years since it came power, the Law and Justice party has engaged in a bold effort to reshape the country. | |
| It has overhauled the courts in ways that critics say undermines the rule of law, leading Poland to become the first member of the European Union to face the prospect of losing its voting rights under the bloc’s founding treaty. | It has overhauled the courts in ways that critics say undermines the rule of law, leading Poland to become the first member of the European Union to face the prospect of losing its voting rights under the bloc’s founding treaty. |
| The state television and radio stations have been turned into government propaganda outlets as pressure on independent news media has mounted. | The state television and radio stations have been turned into government propaganda outlets as pressure on independent news media has mounted. |
| And leaders of cultural institutions deemed insufficiently patriotic have been condemned or forced from their jobs. | And leaders of cultural institutions deemed insufficiently patriotic have been condemned or forced from their jobs. |
| Still, Poland is not yet Hungary, much less Turkey or any other autocratic nation. Civil society remains vibrant, and there are still many critical voices in the news media. | Still, Poland is not yet Hungary, much less Turkey or any other autocratic nation. Civil society remains vibrant, and there are still many critical voices in the news media. |
| For most people, life does not feel less free today than it did four years ago. The fight over the courts has not affected average citizens. Those appalled by the vitriol coming from state news outlets simply turn off the channel and tune out the culture wars. | For most people, life does not feel less free today than it did four years ago. The fight over the courts has not affected average citizens. Those appalled by the vitriol coming from state news outlets simply turn off the channel and tune out the culture wars. |
| When Law and Justice returned to power in 2015, its rallying cry was simple: “Poland off its knees.” But just as important as its nationalist stance was its promise to offer more economic security for struggling families. | |
| The governing party has vastly expanded the welfare state and engaged in the most ambitious plan to redistribute wealth in a generation, winning the loyalty of residents in vast swaths of the country who felt neglected or betrayed as the country transitioned to capitalism. | The governing party has vastly expanded the welfare state and engaged in the most ambitious plan to redistribute wealth in a generation, winning the loyalty of residents in vast swaths of the country who felt neglected or betrayed as the country transitioned to capitalism. |
| Law and Justice was also bolstered by the support of the Roman Catholic church, with many leading priests urging their congregations to vote for the part. The mix of faith, financial largess and aggrieved nationalism proved to be a politically potent. | Law and Justice was also bolstered by the support of the Roman Catholic church, with many leading priests urging their congregations to vote for the part. The mix of faith, financial largess and aggrieved nationalism proved to be a politically potent. |
| Early results, based on exit polls conducted by the research firm Ipsos, showed Law and Justice, which is known as PiS in Polish, with just over 43 percent of the vote. | Early results, based on exit polls conducted by the research firm Ipsos, showed Law and Justice, which is known as PiS in Polish, with just over 43 percent of the vote. |
| Civic Coalition had 27.4 percent. The Left party, representing the country’s more liberal wing, had 11.9 percent. And the Polish People’s Party, representing agricultural workers, had 9.6 percent. The far-right extremist party, Confederation, also appeared to secure enough votes to secure seats in parliament. | Civic Coalition had 27.4 percent. The Left party, representing the country’s more liberal wing, had 11.9 percent. And the Polish People’s Party, representing agricultural workers, had 9.6 percent. The far-right extremist party, Confederation, also appeared to secure enough votes to secure seats in parliament. |
| The officials results are to be announced on Tuesday. If the preliminary numbers hold, Law and Justice will be able to form a government without having to assemble a coalition. | |
| There has always been a certain paranoia at the heart of Law and Justice. | There has always been a certain paranoia at the heart of Law and Justice. |
| On Sunday night, Mr. Kaczynski was dressed in black. He has dressed in black every day for the past nine years to honor his twin brother, Lech, who died in a plane crash in Smolensk in 2010. | |
| Despite multiple investigations finding that the crash was caused by bad weather and pilot error, Mr. Kaczynski has for years pushed a variety of conspiracy theories and built a cult of martyrdom around his brother that is at the center of the party’s mythology. | Despite multiple investigations finding that the crash was caused by bad weather and pilot error, Mr. Kaczynski has for years pushed a variety of conspiracy theories and built a cult of martyrdom around his brother that is at the center of the party’s mythology. |
| When Jan Szyszko, a former minister for the environment and a leading Law and Justice candidate in the coming elections, died last week,Oct. 9 Mr. Kaczynski raised the specter of foul play without any evidence and despite news reports that Mr. Szyszko had died of a pulmonary embolism. | |
| “He passed away in special circumstances,” he said. “The majesty of death does not allow me to talk about it today, but it will have to be said, because it was not a coincidence that it happened today.” | “He passed away in special circumstances,” he said. “The majesty of death does not allow me to talk about it today, but it will have to be said, because it was not a coincidence that it happened today.” |
| Enemies, real and imagined, are a constant presence. In 2015, when the party came to power, migrants — few of whom were actually trying to enter Poland — were made targets. In the months before this election, gay men and lesbians have taken their place in the cross hairs. | Enemies, real and imagined, are a constant presence. In 2015, when the party came to power, migrants — few of whom were actually trying to enter Poland — were made targets. In the months before this election, gay men and lesbians have taken their place in the cross hairs. |
| The two constants of the campaign have been reminders of the government’s financial largess and attacks on what the right-wing news media has labeled “the rainbow dictatorship.” | The two constants of the campaign have been reminders of the government’s financial largess and attacks on what the right-wing news media has labeled “the rainbow dictatorship.” |
| Mr. Kaczynski, widely considered a compelling orator, stood before supporters in his black suit on Tuesday and offered a dark vision of the future. Only faith in the Catholic Church could save Poland, he suggested. | Mr. Kaczynski, widely considered a compelling orator, stood before supporters in his black suit on Tuesday and offered a dark vision of the future. Only faith in the Catholic Church could save Poland, he suggested. |
| “Everything that is good comes from Christianity,” he said. Rejecting that truth, he said, would lead to the collapse of civilization. | “Everything that is good comes from Christianity,” he said. Rejecting that truth, he said, would lead to the collapse of civilization. |
| “Human rights will be destroyed because beyond our civilization such rights simply do not exist,” he said. “You just have to realize it.” | “Human rights will be destroyed because beyond our civilization such rights simply do not exist,” he said. “You just have to realize it.” |
| Mr. Kaczynski went on to talk about the “vile attack on Christianity and a particularly vile attack on family” being made by “a particular minority who have different preferences in the intimate sphere.” | Mr. Kaczynski went on to talk about the “vile attack on Christianity and a particularly vile attack on family” being made by “a particular minority who have different preferences in the intimate sphere.” |
| “Destroy the family,” he said, referring to L.G.B.T. groups. “This is their goal.” | “Destroy the family,” he said, referring to L.G.B.T. groups. “This is their goal.” |
| The opposition parties, divided on domestic issues, were not able to come up with a coherent domestic agenda that could compete with the government’s sweeping attempts to reshape the economy. | The opposition parties, divided on domestic issues, were not able to come up with a coherent domestic agenda that could compete with the government’s sweeping attempts to reshape the economy. |
| Though they mostly avoided infighting, in the months before the election, they largely failed to push a strong enough platform to counter the government’s. Their main selling point: They were not Law and Justice. | Though they mostly avoided infighting, in the months before the election, they largely failed to push a strong enough platform to counter the government’s. Their main selling point: They were not Law and Justice. |
| Mr. Schetyna, the longtime leader of the Civic Platform party, was widely viewed as an uninspiring career politician. His initial opposition to the signature economic policy of the government, giving families about $125 for every child, made him politically toxic. | Mr. Schetyna, the longtime leader of the Civic Platform party, was widely viewed as an uninspiring career politician. His initial opposition to the signature economic policy of the government, giving families about $125 for every child, made him politically toxic. |
| So the biggest opposition bloc, Civic Coalition, chose Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska, a former deputy speaker of Parliament, to be their choice for prime minister should it win. | So the biggest opposition bloc, Civic Coalition, chose Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska, a former deputy speaker of Parliament, to be their choice for prime minister should it win. |
| Ms. Kidawa-Blonska tried to present herself as the face of a less-divisive and less-hateful politics. Her billboards show her hugging a supporter and the words, “Cooperation, not arguments.” | Ms. Kidawa-Blonska tried to present herself as the face of a less-divisive and less-hateful politics. Her billboards show her hugging a supporter and the words, “Cooperation, not arguments.” |
| “Nobody in Poland has ceased to be a patriot; no one has changed their mind about the rule of law and common decency,” she told supporters at the party’s convention last weekend. “The only poison is today’s politics. Someone has injected it with venom.” | “Nobody in Poland has ceased to be a patriot; no one has changed their mind about the rule of law and common decency,” she told supporters at the party’s convention last weekend. “The only poison is today’s politics. Someone has injected it with venom.” |
| She said, “Poland needs a political detox.” | She said, “Poland needs a political detox.” |
| For a moment, after the mayor of Gdansk, Pawel Adamowicz, was stabbed to death in January, it seemed as if the shock of the killing might galvanize the opposition, which includes the center-right Civic Platform, the liberal Left coalition and the Polish People’s Party, which has its base of support in the agricultural community. | For a moment, after the mayor of Gdansk, Pawel Adamowicz, was stabbed to death in January, it seemed as if the shock of the killing might galvanize the opposition, which includes the center-right Civic Platform, the liberal Left coalition and the Polish People’s Party, which has its base of support in the agricultural community. |
| But a strong common message did not materialize. | But a strong common message did not materialize. |
| At a recent forum in Athens, Donald Tusk, a former prime minister of Poland and the current president of the European Council, who has generally stayed away from domestic politics and whose name was not on the ballot on Sunday, lamented the political climate in his country and the murder of the mayor of his hometown, Gdansk. | At a recent forum in Athens, Donald Tusk, a former prime minister of Poland and the current president of the European Council, who has generally stayed away from domestic politics and whose name was not on the ballot on Sunday, lamented the political climate in his country and the murder of the mayor of his hometown, Gdansk. |
| “He fell victim to hatred, which he opposed all his life,” Mr. Tusk said of Mr. Adamowicz. “He built his city with the belief that not everything is lost, that love is stronger than hate, that solidarity is stronger than egoism. I also believe that not everything is lost, and I want to wish you all the same faith.” | “He fell victim to hatred, which he opposed all his life,” Mr. Tusk said of Mr. Adamowicz. “He built his city with the belief that not everything is lost, that love is stronger than hate, that solidarity is stronger than egoism. I also believe that not everything is lost, and I want to wish you all the same faith.” |