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| Pound hits 31-month high as Conservatives hold election lead - business live | Pound hits 31-month high as Conservatives hold election lead - business live |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as the Conservative party extends its lead over Labour | Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as the Conservative party extends its lead over Labour |
| For all the talk of ‘getting Brexit done’, it’s inevitable that the issue would dominate UK politics in 2020 and beyond. | |
| If the UK does leave the EU by the end of January, a new battle to define the future trading relationship between the two sides will break out. | |
| Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at Eurasia Group, says Johnson will have some “very big decisions to make”, about how close to stick to European rules and regulations in return for less friction at the border. | |
| The size of any Conservative win would be a crucial factor here. A big majority would free Johnson from having to placate the hard-line Brexiteers on the back benches (and now in his cabinet too). | |
| Rahman says there’s little clarity about which way Johnson will pivot (if he remains as PM): | |
| Our morning briefing explains what the parties will be up to today: | |
| Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank has warned clients that the Conservative lead has been slightly whittled away in recent days: | Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank has warned clients that the Conservative lead has been slightly whittled away in recent days: |
| The closely-watched MRP opinion poll, released on Sunday, also gives the Conservatives a solid lead of Labour -- with a majority of 38. | The closely-watched MRP opinion poll, released on Sunday, also gives the Conservatives a solid lead of Labour -- with a majority of 38. |
| But... it comes with a warning that many voters are undecided, so that majority could yet evaporate. | But... it comes with a warning that many voters are undecided, so that majority could yet evaporate. |
| This chart shows how the pound has rallied against the euro in recent weeks, to this morning’s 31-month high. | This chart shows how the pound has rallied against the euro in recent weeks, to this morning’s 31-month high. |
| However, it’s still around 8% weaker than before the EU referendum in 2016. | However, it’s still around 8% weaker than before the EU referendum in 2016. |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| With three days until polling day, the City is growing increasingly confident that Boris Johnson is heading back to Downing Street with a healthy working majority. | With three days until polling day, the City is growing increasingly confident that Boris Johnson is heading back to Downing Street with a healthy working majority. |
| Fears of a hung parliament are receding, as the Conservative Party extends its sizeable lead in the opinion polls. This has lifted the pound to a new 31-month high against the euro this morning, touching €1.19 for the first time since May 2017 (just before the Tory’s lost their majority in a snap election). | Fears of a hung parliament are receding, as the Conservative Party extends its sizeable lead in the opinion polls. This has lifted the pound to a new 31-month high against the euro this morning, touching €1.19 for the first time since May 2017 (just before the Tory’s lost their majority in a snap election). |
| Sterling is also rallying against the US dollar too, up 0.25% to $1.318 - a seven-month high. | Sterling is also rallying against the US dollar too, up 0.25% to $1.318 - a seven-month high. |
| The rally comes as pollsters Survation give the Conservatives a 14-point lead over Labour, at 45% of the vote vs 31%. | The rally comes as pollsters Survation give the Conservatives a 14-point lead over Labour, at 45% of the vote vs 31%. |
| That would surely be enough to guarantee a Conservative majority, who could drive Boris Johnson’s Brexit bill through the Commons by January 31st. | That would surely be enough to guarantee a Conservative majority, who could drive Boris Johnson’s Brexit bill through the Commons by January 31st. |
| But elections are unpredictable beasts -- so traders could yet get a nasty shock after the polls close on Thursday night. | But elections are unpredictable beasts -- so traders could yet get a nasty shock after the polls close on Thursday night. |
| Elsa Lignos of Royal Bank of Canada points out that undecided voters could still swing plenty of seats: | Elsa Lignos of Royal Bank of Canada points out that undecided voters could still swing plenty of seats: |
| The election campaign will continue today across the country, with Labour outlining its plans if it defies the polls and forms the next government.... | The election campaign will continue today across the country, with Labour outlining its plans if it defies the polls and forms the next government.... |
| Also coming up today | Also coming up today |
| Asian stock markets have rallied overnight, after last Friday’s US jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Europe is likely to be subdued, though, having ended last week strongly. | Asian stock markets have rallied overnight, after last Friday’s US jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Europe is likely to be subdued, though, having ended last week strongly. |
| On the data front, research group Sentix publishes its latest survey of eurozone investor morale. | On the data front, research group Sentix publishes its latest survey of eurozone investor morale. |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| 9.30am GMT: Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence survey; expected to fall to -5.3 from -4.5 | 9.30am GMT: Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence survey; expected to fall to -5.3 from -4.5 |