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| Poland election: second exit poll indicates narrow lead for Duda - live news | Poland election: second exit poll indicates narrow lead for Duda - live news |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| All the latest results and reaction from the presidential runoff between conservative incumbent and liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski | All the latest results and reaction from the presidential runoff between conservative incumbent and liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski |
| We’re pausing this blog for a while now now. A further updated exit poll is due in a couple of hours time, with official results expected by Monday afternoon at the earliest. | |
| An updated exit poll has put outgoing conservative president Andrzej Duda less than 2 percentage points ahead of his liberal rival, the mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski, after a divisive and bitter election campaign that has presented two radically different visions of a deeply polarised country. | |
| Here is my colleague Shaun Walker’s updated news story: | |
| Here is Reuters’ take on the updated exit poll: | Here is Reuters’ take on the updated exit poll: |
| Poland’s incumbent president Andrzej Duda was slightly ahead in Sunday’s presidential election, a late poll showed, a narrow victory which if confirmed would allow the ruling nationalists to deepen their conservative reforms.The late poll combines exit poll data with partial official results.Duda, an ally of the ruling nationalists Law and Justice (PiS), received 50.8% of the vote, according to the late poll.Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the candidate of the largest opposition party, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), came second with 49.2%. | Poland’s incumbent president Andrzej Duda was slightly ahead in Sunday’s presidential election, a late poll showed, a narrow victory which if confirmed would allow the ruling nationalists to deepen their conservative reforms.The late poll combines exit poll data with partial official results.Duda, an ally of the ruling nationalists Law and Justice (PiS), received 50.8% of the vote, according to the late poll.Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the candidate of the largest opposition party, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), came second with 49.2%. |
| A revised late exit poll put the incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, on 50.8% of the vote and his rival, Rafał Trzaskowski, on 49.2% - a slight widening of the margin, but still too small for pollster Ipsos to call the election. | A revised late exit poll put the incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, on 50.8% of the vote and his rival, Rafał Trzaskowski, on 49.2% - a slight widening of the margin, but still too small for pollster Ipsos to call the election. |
| Overseas votes are not covered by the Ipsos poll, which has a margin of error of 2%, and their ballot could prove crucial to the election outcome. Official final results may not be known until late Monday afternoon or even Tuesday morning. | Overseas votes are not covered by the Ipsos poll, which has a margin of error of 2%, and their ballot could prove crucial to the election outcome. Official final results may not be known until late Monday afternoon or even Tuesday morning. |
| An updated exit poll is expected at midnight local time, but the Polish electoral commission has said it will not be announcing partial official results. | An updated exit poll is expected at midnight local time, but the Polish electoral commission has said it will not be announcing partial official results. |
| Full official results are not expected until the afternoon, or even Tuesday morning. Because this election looks like being so tight, it seems likely the result will be some time coming. | Full official results are not expected until the afternoon, or even Tuesday morning. Because this election looks like being so tight, it seems likely the result will be some time coming. |
| As well as being laced with homophobic and anti-LGBT rhetoric and attacking alleged attempts by Germany to “manipulate” the election, Duda’s campaign was widely criticised as anti-semitic. | As well as being laced with homophobic and anti-LGBT rhetoric and attacking alleged attempts by Germany to “manipulate” the election, Duda’s campaign was widely criticised as anti-semitic. |
| This is what Daniel Tilles of the independent news site Notes from Poland says: | This is what Daniel Tilles of the independent news site Notes from Poland says: |
| Piotr Buras and Pawel Zerka, of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), say in an instructive post-election note that Duda did not secure a clear victory despite “two weeks of a campaign in which he received massive support from the public media and launched brutal attacks against his contender”. | Piotr Buras and Pawel Zerka, of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), say in an instructive post-election note that Duda did not secure a clear victory despite “two weeks of a campaign in which he received massive support from the public media and launched brutal attacks against his contender”. |
| Trzaskowski, on the other hand, gained about 2 million voters compared to his result in the first round, they pointed out. The final result may depend on the votes cast by the Poles living abroad, who are not covered by exit polls, the analysts said, with the majority expected to support Trzaskowski. | Trzaskowski, on the other hand, gained about 2 million voters compared to his result in the first round, they pointed out. The final result may depend on the votes cast by the Poles living abroad, who are not covered by exit polls, the analysts said, with the majority expected to support Trzaskowski. |
| Nonetheless, Buras and Zerka said the exit poll “still make Duda the favourite”, partly because the first round exit poll underestimated his final result by considerably more than it did Trzaskowski’s. | Nonetheless, Buras and Zerka said the exit poll “still make Duda the favourite”, partly because the first round exit poll underestimated his final result by considerably more than it did Trzaskowski’s. |
| Further, they say, Poland’s lack of experience with postal voting on such a scale “could give plenty of room for manipulation on the one hand, and for conspiracy theories on the other hand. Irregularities during the postal voting might prove decisive”. | Further, they say, Poland’s lack of experience with postal voting on such a scale “could give plenty of room for manipulation on the one hand, and for conspiracy theories on the other hand. Irregularities during the postal voting might prove decisive”. |
| All this favours Duda, they feel, not just because he is slightly in the lead, but because: | All this favours Duda, they feel, not just because he is slightly in the lead, but because: |
| Here is the the Reuters news agency’s take on the evening so far: | Here is the the Reuters news agency’s take on the evening so far: |
| Incumbent Andrzej Duda was marginally ahead in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday, an exit poll found, in a result seen as likely to have profound implications for Warsaw’s relations with the rest of the European Union. | Incumbent Andrzej Duda was marginally ahead in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday, an exit poll found, in a result seen as likely to have profound implications for Warsaw’s relations with the rest of the European Union. |
| The re-election of Duda, an ally of the ruling nationalists Law and Justice (PiS), is crucial if the government is to implement in full its conservative agenda, including judicial reforms that the European Union says are undemocratic. | The re-election of Duda, an ally of the ruling nationalists Law and Justice (PiS), is crucial if the government is to implement in full its conservative agenda, including judicial reforms that the European Union says are undemocratic. |
| Duda’s challenger, liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, has pledged to repair Poland’s relations with Europe and use the presidential veto power to hold back any legislation that would subvert the rule of law. | Duda’s challenger, liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, has pledged to repair Poland’s relations with Europe and use the presidential veto power to hold back any legislation that would subvert the rule of law. |
| The exit poll by Ipsos showed Duda winning 50.4% of the vote, while Trzaskowski, the preferred candidate of the main opposition party, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), had 49.6%. Ipsos said it was too early to call a winner. | The exit poll by Ipsos showed Duda winning 50.4% of the vote, while Trzaskowski, the preferred candidate of the main opposition party, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), had 49.6%. Ipsos said it was too early to call a winner. |
| “All we need is to count the votes. The night will be tense but I am certain that when the votes are counted, we will win,” Trzaskowski told supporters in a park just outside Warsaw’s historic Old Town. | “All we need is to count the votes. The night will be tense but I am certain that when the votes are counted, we will win,” Trzaskowski told supporters in a park just outside Warsaw’s historic Old Town. |
| Partial official results are expected on Monday. | Partial official results are expected on Monday. |
| Not everyone has finished voting. Holidaymakers in Split, Croatia, a popular destination for Poles, are still waiting to cast their ballots outside the consulate. Some have reportedly been queueing for five or six hours. | Not everyone has finished voting. Holidaymakers in Split, Croatia, a popular destination for Poles, are still waiting to cast their ballots outside the consulate. Some have reportedly been queueing for five or six hours. |
| The Guardian’s Christian Davies warns that a result that is apparently this close could cause problems if it is contested: | The Guardian’s Christian Davies warns that a result that is apparently this close could cause problems if it is contested: |
| More evidence that this is going to be a very, very close run election: overseas voter counts are starting to come in, led by the US whose Polish voters generally break heavily for conservative candidates. This time, however, it was rather tighter: | More evidence that this is going to be a very, very close run election: overseas voter counts are starting to come in, led by the US whose Polish voters generally break heavily for conservative candidates. This time, however, it was rather tighter: |
| The Guardian’s Christian Davies wrote a fascinating piece this week profiling the two rival candidates, noting how - despite a few striking biographical similarities - each represents the face of a very different Poland: | The Guardian’s Christian Davies wrote a fascinating piece this week profiling the two rival candidates, noting how - despite a few striking biographical similarities - each represents the face of a very different Poland: |
| Notes from Poland, the independent Polish news site, has more details from the exit poll. | Notes from Poland, the independent Polish news site, has more details from the exit poll. |
| Geographically, it says voting followed the traditional Polish pattern, with the conservative east of the country plumping mainly for Duda and the more liberal west largely backing Trzaskowski. | Geographically, it says voting followed the traditional Polish pattern, with the conservative east of the country plumping mainly for Duda and the more liberal west largely backing Trzaskowski. |
| Duda also did best among voters with a lower level of education and with older voters; Trzaskowski with younger and better-educated voters. | Duda also did best among voters with a lower level of education and with older voters; Trzaskowski with younger and better-educated voters. |
| Here is Agence France-Presse’s first take on the wafer-thin lead the exit poll gives Duda: | Here is Agence France-Presse’s first take on the wafer-thin lead the exit poll gives Duda: |
| At the Trzaskowski campaign’s post-election event, supporters of the liberal Warsaw mayor plainly feel their candidate is in with a chance, reports the Economist correspondent Annabelle Chapman. | At the Trzaskowski campaign’s post-election event, supporters of the liberal Warsaw mayor plainly feel their candidate is in with a chance, reports the Economist correspondent Annabelle Chapman. |
| Trzaskowski himself says he still believes he can win: “We will wake up tomorrow in a completely new Poland,” he tells the crowd. | Trzaskowski himself says he still believes he can win: “We will wake up tomorrow in a completely new Poland,” he tells the crowd. |
| Ben Stanley, an associate professor of politics at the SWPS University in Poland, reckons - with some justification - that it’s going to be a very long night. | Ben Stanley, an associate professor of politics at the SWPS University in Poland, reckons - with some justification - that it’s going to be a very long night. |
| Both candidates have cause for cautious optimism, he points out: | Both candidates have cause for cautious optimism, he points out: |
| The Guardian’s Christian Davies says the thing that struck him most forcefully outside polling stations was the influence of the conservative Duda’s anti-LGBT campaign - laced with homophobic rhetoric, it made the fight against so-called “LGBT ideology” one of the incumbent president’s main talking points: | The Guardian’s Christian Davies says the thing that struck him most forcefully outside polling stations was the influence of the conservative Duda’s anti-LGBT campaign - laced with homophobic rhetoric, it made the fight against so-called “LGBT ideology” one of the incumbent president’s main talking points: |