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Polish president Duda squeaks a second term, electoral commission says Polish president Duda narrowly wins reelection, enabling the continuation of a far-right agenda
(about 11 hours later)
BERLIN — Poland's populist President Andrzej Duda won a second term, the country's electoral commission said on Monday after counting the vast majority of votes in a tightly fought runoff against the centrist Mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski. BERLIN — Poland's right-wing president, Andrzej Duda, won a second term by a razor-thin margin in results announced Monday, paving the way for Warsaw to continue a political program that human rights advocates and other European leaders have criticized as undermining democracy.
Duda — an ally of President Trump — won 51.2 percent of the vote in Sunday’s election, the commission said after counting 99.97 percent of the ballots. The commission said the remainder of the votes were unlikely to change the outcome. The turnout was a record high of 68.1 percent. Duda — an ally of President Trump — won 51.2 percent of the vote in Sunday's runoff election, the country's electoral commission said after counting 99.97 percent of the ballots. Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski trailed with 48.8 percent. The commission said the remainder of the votes are unlikely to change the outcome.
The results will likely help Poland’s ruling right-wing Law and Justice party continue its hard-line policies, including efforts to force out independent judges, which have drawn rebukes from the European Union and human rights groups over the past five years. Turnout above 68 percent, the highest in a presidential election in 25 years, showed how deeply Poles cared about what was seen as a pivotal election.
It is a blow to liberals and centrists who had hoped a Trzaskowski victory could bring a stunning change in Polish politics, allowing the pro-European Trzaskowski to veto laws passed by the right-wing government, which holds a majority in the lower house of Parliament. Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, has vowed to return Poland to E.U. standards on the rule of law. Analysts said it was less a choice between two candidates than between two Polands: one that clashes with much of the rest of Europe on values and another that aligns with them.
Warsaw’s mayor is energizing Poland’s opposition. A presidential win would be a big blow to Europe’s populists.Warsaw’s mayor is energizing Poland’s opposition. A presidential win would be a big blow to Europe’s populists.
An initial exit poll had seen the two candidates neck and neck, with Duda being less than one percentage point ahead of his centrist contender. The early figures gave rise to hope among Trzaskowski supporters that overseas votes could still decide the election in his favor. Duda ran a campaign especially notable for its anti-LGBT rhetoric. He proposed a constitutional amendment that would bar single-sex couples from adopting children and at one point he suggested that efforts to advance gay rights were worse than communism.
Both candidates expressed optimism Sunday that they had won the election, which drew a higher turnout than any other presidential election in more than two decades. Trzaskowski promised a more tolerant Poland.
“It shows that [Polish] democracy is vibrant,” Pawel Zerka, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations noted after the exit polls on Sunday. “But it’s also bad news, because it shows to what extent the society is really divided into tribes or camps. It is neatly divided in half.” The election was also a referendum on the country's nationalist ruling party, which backed Duda's campaign.
Whereas Trzaskowski primarily won in Poland’s west, Duda’s campaign rallied its supporters in the more right-wing east of the country. Some votes submitted by Polish citizens via postal ballot from overseas were still missing on Monday morning and some opposition members said they were gathering details on what they called irregularities. But Duda’s widening lead on Monday dampened concerns among some analysts, who had feared a prolonged legal battle in case of a narrow election outcome. The Law and Justice party has drawn rebukes from the European Union and human rights groups over the past five years, particularly for its attempts to force out independent judges. The party would have remained in control of Poland's parliament regardless of the outcome of the presidential contest. But because the president can sign or veto new laws, a Trzaskowski win would have presented a stumbling block for the party's agenda.
“I don’t want to speak on behalf of the campaign staff, but I think that this difference is large enough that we have to accept the result,” former mainstream opposition leader Grzegorz Schetyna told Polish network TVN24 on Monday. Affirming his nationalist credentials, Duda vowed in a campaign speech last week to strengthen the Polish state, which he said was “built on our inviolable and sacred tradition.”
Duda came in first during the initial round of voting last month, but he failed to secure the majority he needed to avoid a runoff with Trzaskowski, whose approval ratings have jumped since he entered the race in May. Analysts say they expect Law and Justice to leverage his win to further its hard-line policies, including an effort to “re-Polandize” the media and bring foreign-owned outlets under Polish control. That’s something Zbigniew Ziobro, the country’s powerful justice minister, advocated in recent weeks, while Duda took aim at foreign media “meddling” in his campaign.
Duda, who during the campaign suggested that efforts to advance LGBT rights were worse than communism, vowed Friday to strengthen the Polish state, which he said was “built on our inviolable and sacred tradition.” Duda’s campaign sought to highlight efforts by the ruling Law and Justice party to narrow inequality by expanding social benefits, which has mainly helped poorer voters in rural areas that are right-wing strongholds. “Having Duda in office again, the temptation will be huge to make use of him and his signature,” said Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
After an at times brutal campaign in which Duda called the opposition worse than coronavirus, the incumbent called for unity in the country on Sunday night and struck a conciliatory tone, inviting Trzaskowski to the presidential palace. But in an indication for the political turmoil that may lie ahead, Trzaskowski declined the offer, saying the appropriate time for a meeting was after the announcement of official results. Still, Buras said, the close result should be a "warning sign" for the governing party.
Duda is the first to receive more than 10 million votes since 1990, when Nobel Peace Prize laureate Lech Walesa became the country's first democratically elected president. But Trzaskowski's 9.9 million votes are equally stunning and would have seen him win any other presidential election in the past three decades.
"The division is very deep and the polarization has grown stronger," Buras said, adding that it might complicate efforts to govern. "Those who are politically active are really deeply divided into two halves."
Duda came in first during the initial round of voting last month, but he failed to secure the majority he needed to avoid Sunday’s runoff.
An exit poll on Sunday, which showed a result too close to call, painted a picture of a country divided along lines of age and geography. While Trzaskowski comfortably won over voters under 50, according to the exit poll, Duda drew support from the older generation.
Trzaskowski primarily won in the wealthier and more economically developed cities, while Duda prevailed in Poland’s strongly Catholic and poorer countryside, notably in the east. Duda’s campaign had sought to highlight the expansion of social benefits under Law and Justice party rule, which has mainly helped voters in rural areas that are right-wing strongholds.
Duda struck a somewhat conciliatory tone in a victory speech on Sunday, inviting Trzaskowski to the presidential palace.
“Let us talk to each other and not offend others and look with respect at the other Pole, who has dignity and whose opinion must be respected,” Duda said. “If anyone felt offended by my actions, please accept my apologies.”
While the tight race had prompted concerns that there may be wrangling over the outcome, Trzaskowski conceded defeat on Monday afternoon. "May this term really be different," he wrote on Twitter.
Kalan reported from Warsaw.Kalan reported from Warsaw.
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