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UK coronavirus live: PM would have saved thousands of lives with earlier lockdown, says Sage scientist UK coronavirus live: PM would have saved thousands of lives with earlier lockdown, says Sage scientist
(32 minutes later)
PM will insist there is ‘no alternative’ to a nationwide lockdown as he addresses the House of Commons on Monday PM will insist there is ‘no alternative’ to a nationwide lockdown as he addresses House of Commons on Monday
After his speech to the CBI Sir Keir Starmer took questions from the audience, and in his answers he hinted at his desire to move away from some aspects of the Jeremy Corbyn policy agenda. These are from Sky’s Joe Pike and the FT’s Jim Pickard.
Chloe Smith, a minister in the Cabinet Office, has announced that she is starting treatment for breast cancer.
T-cell immunity against Covid-19 is likely to be present within most adults six months after primary infection, according to a study.
As PA Media reports, the research from Public Health England (PHE) and the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC) demonstrated robust T-cell responses to Covid-19 peptides at six months in all participants following asymptomatic, mild or moderate infection.
Prof Paul Moss, UK-CIC lead and professor of haematology at the University of Birmingham, described the new data as “reassuring, potentially even encouraging” but said it does not mean people cannot get re-infected.
The research was an observational study and has not yet been peer-reviewed.
Nicola Sturgeon has said Scotland could quickly move to a full lockdown to “stamp down harder” on the spread of Covid-19 by exploiting the opportunity offered by the new 80% furlough funding from the Treasury.
The first minister said that during a Cobra meeting hosted on Monday morning by Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, she and the Welsh and Northern Irish governments had pressed for much greater flexibility in the availability of furlough payments outside England.
She said she hoped the Treasury would confirm later today that the devolved administrations would be allowed to offer 80% furlough payments to employers even if they were not used in England.
Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, confirmed in a speech to the Tory-leaning Policy Exchange on Monday morning, he had also been lobbying the chancellor to offer that option to devolved governments.
If the Treasury did not do that, Sturgeon said, her government could decide to move very fast to impose level 4 restrictions across Scotland this week to use the time-limited opportunity to offer furlough over the next four weeks. She said:
Sturgeon said stricter Scottish rules introduced from September appeared to be working with the surge in new cases starting to subside.
There were no new deaths overnight but the number of new cases fell overnight to 951. The numbers in hospital rose by 32 to 1,225 and by 12 in intensive care, up to 93.
At his press conference Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, says he wanted to be able to say today that pubs and restaurants would be able to reopen next week on the same terms as before.
But he says the announcement of the England-wide lockdown has made that difficult, because it creates a risk of English people crossing the border to drink in pubs in Wales. He does not want to create a situation where the police cannot enforce the ban on people visiting from high-Covid areas outside Wales, he says.
He says that is why there will be further talks before the exact arrangements for the reopening of pubs in Wales are announced.
Here is the full text of Sir Keir Starmer’s speech to the CBI conference. And here are the main points.Here is the full text of Sir Keir Starmer’s speech to the CBI conference. And here are the main points.
Starmer said that the government’s decision to delay the lockdown had cost lives. (See 11.58am.) Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, had failed to show leadership, Starmer said.Starmer said that the government’s decision to delay the lockdown had cost lives. (See 11.58am.) Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, had failed to show leadership, Starmer said.
Starmer singled out Sunak for particular blame, accusing the chancellor of being the person who blocked an earlier lockdown. He said:Starmer singled out Sunak for particular blame, accusing the chancellor of being the person who blocked an earlier lockdown. He said:
Labour has been increasingly critical of Sunak in its public campaigning recently. With speculation still bubbling away at Westminster about the prospect of Johnson being replaced at some point before the next general election by Sunak, who is far more popular with the public, Starmer has a clear incentive to tarnish his reputation. But blaming Sunak for being responsible for the lockdown delay also implies that Johnson’s own leadership is weak.Labour has been increasingly critical of Sunak in its public campaigning recently. With speculation still bubbling away at Westminster about the prospect of Johnson being replaced at some point before the next general election by Sunak, who is far more popular with the public, Starmer has a clear incentive to tarnish his reputation. But blaming Sunak for being responsible for the lockdown delay also implies that Johnson’s own leadership is weak.
Starmer said he said he thought “the essential bargain of post-war Britain” had broken down. He explained: had broken Starmer said he said he thought “the essential bargain of postwar Britain” had broken down. He explained:
He said he wanted to restore Labour’s relationship with the business community. He said:He said he wanted to restore Labour’s relationship with the business community. He said:
He said his goal was for “every community and every town [to have] world-class local businesses”. But Labour also expect businesses to contribute something in return, he said.He said his goal was for “every community and every town [to have] world-class local businesses”. But Labour also expect businesses to contribute something in return, he said.
He said improving skills would be a priority for Labour under his leadership “like never before”.He said improving skills would be a priority for Labour under his leadership “like never before”.
Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, is giving a briefing now. The new national measures for Wales when the country’s “firebreak” lockdown ends next Monday include:Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, is giving a briefing now. The new national measures for Wales when the country’s “firebreak” lockdown ends next Monday include:
The need to maintain two metre social distancing and wear face masks in enclosed public places, including on public transport and taxis, will continue; The need to maintain 2 metre social distancing and wear face masks in enclosed public places, including on public transport and taxis, will continue.
The requirement to work from home whenever possible will remain; The requirement to work from home whenever possible will remain.
People should only meet with their ‘bubble’ in their own home and only two households will be able to form a ‘bubble’. If one person from either household develops symptoms, everyone should immediately self-isolate.People should only meet with their ‘bubble’ in their own home and only two households will be able to form a ‘bubble’. If one person from either household develops symptoms, everyone should immediately self-isolate.
Up to 15 people can take part in an organised indoors activity and up to 30 in an organised activity outdoors, providing all social distancing, hand hygiene and other Covid safety measures are followed; Up to 15 people can take part in an organised indoors activity and up to 30 in an organised activity outdoors, providing all social distancing, hand hygiene and other Covid safety measures are followed.
All premises, such as restaurants, cafes, pubs and gyms, closed during the firebreak, will be able to reopen. Following the announcement about the English lockdown, ministers are having ongoing discussions with the hospitality sector about the detailed rules for reopening. This includes about meeting in public indoor spaces; All premises, such as restaurants, cafes, pubs and gyms, closed during the firebreak, will be able to reopen. Following the announcement about the English lockdown, ministers are having ongoing discussions with the hospitality sector about the detailed rules for reopening. This includes about meeting in public indoor spaces.
As part of keeping our risks to a minimum, people should avoid non-essential travel as much as possible. There will be no legal restrictions on travel within Wales for residents, but international travel should be for essential reasons only.As part of keeping our risks to a minimum, people should avoid non-essential travel as much as possible. There will be no legal restrictions on travel within Wales for residents, but international travel should be for essential reasons only.
In addition:In addition:
All schools will reopen; All schools will reopen.
Churches and places of worship will resume services; Churches and places of worship will resume services.
Local authority services will resume but based on local circumstances; Local authority services will resume but based on local circumstances.
Community centres will be available for small groups to meet safely indoors in the winter months.Community centres will be available for small groups to meet safely indoors in the winter months.
In his speech to the CBI Sir Keir Starmer said that the PM’s decision to delay the lockdown had cost lives. He said:In his speech to the CBI Sir Keir Starmer said that the PM’s decision to delay the lockdown had cost lives. He said:
Sir Keir Starmer is addressing the CBI conference now.Sir Keir Starmer is addressing the CBI conference now.
He says he will be using his speech to set out his plan for “a new partnership between British business and the Labour party”.He says he will be using his speech to set out his plan for “a new partnership between British business and the Labour party”.
But he starts by speaking about coronavirus, and he says the government has ignored the central lesson from the first wave of the virus: that governments have to act early and decisively.But he starts by speaking about coronavirus, and he says the government has ignored the central lesson from the first wave of the virus: that governments have to act early and decisively.
He says Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, failed to learn this lesson. They failed to listen and they failed to lead, he says.He says Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, failed to learn this lesson. They failed to listen and they failed to lead, he says.
I will post a full summary of the speech once I’ve read the whole text.I will post a full summary of the speech once I’ve read the whole text.
The archbishops of Canterbury and York and the bishop of London may challenge the government over the ban on communal worship in the second national lockdown.
The three most senior figures in the C of E say the ban on services is “a huge loss and since we were not consulted about the lockdown provisions, we fully intend to speak with government about why certain exemptions are made and not others, emphasising the critical role that churches play in every community.”Justin Welby, Stephen Cottrell and Sarah Mullally have written to Church of England clergy encouraging them to keep churches open for private prayer and the streaming of services during the coming lockdown.
Their letter acknowledges that they may have been “overly cautious” in the first national lockdown when they ordered clergy to lock the doors to churches.
Yesterday Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, called for schools to be closed during part of the lockdown period to make it fully effective.
This morning, in an interview with Sky News, he said he was also calling for exams to be abandoned this year. He said:
Burnham said he thought more pupils in the north-west of England were having to miss school because of the high rate of Covid there. His own daughter was off school again today for that reason, he said.
In her speech to the CBI’s annual conference, Dame Carolyn Fairbairn, its outgoing director general, criticised the government’s handling of the lockdown announcement, saying firms could not act on the basis of “speculation and leaks and surmise”.
Warning that companies faced a “bleak” winter, she also set out what she thought the government needed to do. As PA Media reports, she said ministers should:
Prof Neil Ferguson, the epidemiologist from Imperial College London whose research was instrumental in persuading the government to launch the first lockdown in March, told Times Radio this morning that it would take two or three weeks to see if the new one was working. He said:
Ferguson also said a further lockdown might be needed next year because it was always expected that “on-off measures” might be needed. He said:
Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, also did a broadcast media round this morning. Here are the main points.
Drakeford confirmed that the 17-day Welsh lockdown would end, as planned, a week today. He said:
He saw this as a bargain with the public, he said:
He said the Welsh government would not know until about two weeks after the lockdown whether it had succeeded. But the data suggested that travel rates in Wales had been much lower than normal, which implied people were following the rules, he said.
He said a new “basic set of national rules” would be introduced in Wales for after 9 November.
But he also appealed to people to act responsibility - suggesting that public behaviour would count more than government regulations in combating the virus. Speaking ahead of his briefing later, he said:
He said that Boris Johnson has been ignoring his call to convene a meeting of Cobra, to allow the four nations of the UK to better coordinate their coronavirus policies.
Dr Susan Hopkins, a deputy director of Public Health England and the medical adviser to NHS Test and Trace, gave a series of media interviews this morning. Here are the main points.
Hopkins said the lockdown in England would last a “minimum” of four weeks. She said:
She said she could not say whether infections in schools was too high. Asked if the transmission risk in schools was high, she said:
She said one reason why NHS Test and Trace was having difficulty reaching the contacts of people who have tested positive is because people don’t answer their phones. She explained:
Douglas Ross, the new Scottish Conservative leader, told the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme, that it was a mistake for Boris Johnson to rule out a second lockdown. Ross said:
(Johnson never categorically ruled out a second lockdown, but he repeatedly stressed that he wanted to avoid one, at one point describing it as akin to using the nuclear deterrent.)
Ross also said he wanted the furlough scheme to be extended to Scotland if Scotland needs it. The Treasury has said the scheme, paying 80% of wages, will extend to Scotland while it is in force in England, where it has been extended to cover the November lockdown. But the Scottish government wants an assurance that it will have access to the scheme if Scotland is operating a full lockdown while England isn’t.
Thousands of lives would have been saved if the government had introduced the second lockdown earlier, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies told the Today programme.
Prof Andrew Hayward, professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at University College London, is a member of the government’s new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group (Nervtag) advisory committee, as well as a participant in Sage meetings.
Asked what would have happened if the government had implemented a lockdown when Sage proposed one on 21 September, Hayward said:
Hayward said that trying less stringent restrictions first (effectively what the government did, when it ignored Sage in September and opted for regional restrictions instead) was dangerous. He explained:
He also said that failing to control Covid was bad not just for health, but for the economy too.
Boris Johnson was expected to address the CBI conference today. But he is sending Alok Sharma, the business secretary, instead. Lord Bilimoria, the CBI president, told the Today programme this morning that it was very unusual for the prime minister of the day not to give a speech to the conference.
Yesterday Dame Carolyn Fairbairn, the outgoing director-general of the CBI, said a second lockdown would be a “real body blow” for business.
Good morning. One of the criticisms of Boris Johnson’s handling of coronavirus is that he has been poor at managing expectations. Temperamentally prone to over-optimism, he has constantly been playing down the extent to which lockdown measures will be required - only to find the Covid reality proving him wrong.
We may be getting a fresh example today.
This afternoon Johnson will be making a statement to MPs about the England-wide lockdown announced on Saturday and, according to the extracts released in advance, he will say that deaths would have been twice as bad as during the first wave without one. He will say:
But Johnson will also play down the prospect of the lockdown having to be extended. He will say:
This line has made the Daily Express splash.
But is this credible? Not according to the rest of Fleet Street, which is placing more weight on what Michael Gove said yesterday about how the lockdown might have to be extended, plus what ministers and officials are briefing on background.
Here is the Times splash.
Here are some quotes from the Times story (paywall), from ministers not inclined to trust the PM’s assurances.
And here are some headlines from other papers flagging up concerns the lockdown will have to be extended.
Johnson will be on his feet in the Commons after 3.30pm and this could turn out to be one of his most awkward parliamentary appearances since the pandemic started. Many Conservative MPs are very unhappy about the lockdown, and it it doubtful whether they will accept his claim that it may only last four weeks. We don’t know yet whether they will vent their anger en masse in the chamber, but if they do, Johnson could face a difficult afternoon.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, gives a speech at the London Conference 2020.
10.30am: Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, gives a speech on the union to Policy Exchange thinktank.
11.40am: Sir Keir Starmer gives a speech to the CBI conference.
12pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing.
12.15pm: Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, gives a briefing where he is expected to announce what will happen in Wales when its lockdown ends next week.
12.15pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, holds a coronavirus briefing.
After 3.30pm: Boris Johnson makes a statement to MPs about his plans for an England-wide lockdown.
Politics Live is now doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
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