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| UN chief gambles on Burma breakthrough | UN chief gambles on Burma breakthrough |
| (20 minutes later) | |
| By Jonathan Head BBC South East Asia correspondent | By Jonathan Head BBC South East Asia correspondent |
| Ban Ki-moon is not a man known for taking risks. Yet his decision to visit Burma and meet its secretive military rulers - at a time when the rest of the world is outraged by their decision to put opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi on trial - is quite a gamble. | Ban Ki-moon is not a man known for taking risks. Yet his decision to visit Burma and meet its secretive military rulers - at a time when the rest of the world is outraged by their decision to put opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi on trial - is quite a gamble. |
| Mr Ban has been criticised for his unassertive style of diplomacy | Mr Ban has been criticised for his unassertive style of diplomacy |
| The visit was requested by the Burmese government. | The visit was requested by the Burmese government. |
| The generals are rarely graced by the presence of figures of Mr Ban's international stature in their bunker-like capital Nay Pyi Taw. | The generals are rarely graced by the presence of figures of Mr Ban's international stature in their bunker-like capital Nay Pyi Taw. |
| If the secretary-general gets nothing in return, he will be assailed by his detractors for being naive, for allowing the status of his high office to be used by a pariah regime. | If the secretary-general gets nothing in return, he will be assailed by his detractors for being naive, for allowing the status of his high office to be used by a pariah regime. |
| Critics have already argued that a UN secretary-general's visit should be a prize, to be awarded after significant concessions have been made, not before. | Critics have already argued that a UN secretary-general's visit should be a prize, to be awarded after significant concessions have been made, not before. |
| But if Mr Ban's visit can revive a dialogue between the military and the opposition that has been dead for six years, he can chalk up the greatest achievements at the UN to date. | But if Mr Ban's visit can revive a dialogue between the military and the opposition that has been dead for six years, he can chalk up the greatest achievements at the UN to date. |
| So what are his prospects? | So what are his prospects? |
| Previous UN envoys have generally had little success in Burma. | Previous UN envoys have generally had little success in Burma. |
| Burma's rulers are prepared to sit in splendid isolation if they feel threatened by international pressure Why is junta afraid of Suu Kyi? Profile: Aung San Suu Kyi | |
| The one exception was Razali Ismail, a distinguished Malaysian diplomat, who was appointed UN Special Envoy to Burma in April 2000. | The one exception was Razali Ismail, a distinguished Malaysian diplomat, who was appointed UN Special Envoy to Burma in April 2000. |
| He helped broker talks between the government and Aung San Suu Kyi that resulted in her release from house arrest in May 2002. | He helped broker talks between the government and Aung San Suu Kyi that resulted in her release from house arrest in May 2002. |
| But after she was detained again a year later, Mr Razali was repeatedly denied entry to the country, and he resigned in frustration at the end of 2005. | But after she was detained again a year later, Mr Razali was repeatedly denied entry to the country, and he resigned in frustration at the end of 2005. |
| His successor, Ibrahim Gambari, has led eight missions to Burma, but has little to show for them. | His successor, Ibrahim Gambari, has led eight missions to Burma, but has little to show for them. |
| He arrived there right after the army's violent suppression of mass anti-government protests in September 2007, and thought he had been given assurances by Senior General Than Shwe that the military would be lenient with the protesters. | He arrived there right after the army's violent suppression of mass anti-government protests in September 2007, and thought he had been given assurances by Senior General Than Shwe that the military would be lenient with the protesters. |
| Since then, in a seemingly calculated snub to international opinion, military-dominated courts have imposed harsh sentences on hundreds of political prisoners. | Since then, in a seemingly calculated snub to international opinion, military-dominated courts have imposed harsh sentences on hundreds of political prisoners. |
| Election risk | Election risk |
| Ban Ki-moon's position as secretary-general may make it easier for him to deal with the notoriously reclusive and stubborn military ruler. | Ban Ki-moon's position as secretary-general may make it easier for him to deal with the notoriously reclusive and stubborn military ruler. |
| It may be that his oft-criticised unassertive diplomatic style strikes a chord with Than Shwe. | It may be that his oft-criticised unassertive diplomatic style strikes a chord with Than Shwe. |
| Mr Ban certainly seems to feel he has a rapport with him, a big claim to make after just one meeting over a year ago - but a claim nonetheless that few other international figures can rival. | Mr Ban certainly seems to feel he has a rapport with him, a big claim to make after just one meeting over a year ago - but a claim nonetheless that few other international figures can rival. |
| In pictures: Burma's tunnel network | |
| What we do know is that Burma's rulers are prepared to sit in splendid isolation if they feel threatened by international pressure - the networks of tunnels being constructed underneath the new capital, with North Korean help, are testimony to that. | What we do know is that Burma's rulers are prepared to sit in splendid isolation if they feel threatened by international pressure - the networks of tunnels being constructed underneath the new capital, with North Korean help, are testimony to that. |
| But they do care about their legitimacy and respectability in the world. | But they do care about their legitimacy and respectability in the world. |
| Why else take the risk of holding elections next year, albeit elections which will leave the military in a dominant position? | Why else take the risk of holding elections next year, albeit elections which will leave the military in a dominant position? |
| Mr Ban must seduce them with offers of respect away from the comfort zone of their bunkers. | Mr Ban must seduce them with offers of respect away from the comfort zone of their bunkers. |
| The few people who have any contact with top Burmese officials say they have been genuinely caught off-guard by the storm of international protest over Aung San Suu Kyi. | The few people who have any contact with top Burmese officials say they have been genuinely caught off-guard by the storm of international protest over Aung San Suu Kyi. |
| That the trial has been repeatedly delayed suggests they have concerns - dissident trials are usually rushed through with little due-process - so there is some willingness to acknowledge world reaction. | That the trial has been repeatedly delayed suggests they have concerns - dissident trials are usually rushed through with little due-process - so there is some willingness to acknowledge world reaction. |
| Dialogue test | Dialogue test |
| Measuring the success of Mr Ban's mission will be difficult. | Measuring the success of Mr Ban's mission will be difficult. |
| He may win the release of a number of political prisoners. Some will dismiss this as a mere token, but such concessions do matter. | He may win the release of a number of political prisoners. Some will dismiss this as a mere token, but such concessions do matter. |
| Mr Ban has a list of those of greatest concern to the UN; some are being held in very harsh conditions. Dozens of political prisoners have died in custody over the years. | Mr Ban has a list of those of greatest concern to the UN; some are being held in very harsh conditions. Dozens of political prisoners have died in custody over the years. |
| Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD party was brutally suppressed by the army | |
| He almost certainly will not obtain Ms Suu Kyi's release. The real test will be what happens over the next few months - whether a real dialogue can be restarted with the opposition. | He almost certainly will not obtain Ms Suu Kyi's release. The real test will be what happens over the next few months - whether a real dialogue can be restarted with the opposition. |
| Another test will be whether next year's election can be made more inclusive. | Another test will be whether next year's election can be made more inclusive. |
| At the moment the main opposition party, Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, says it will only consider taking part if the military government meets a series of demands including the release of political prisoners and changes to the military-drafted constitution. | At the moment the main opposition party, Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, says it will only consider taking part if the military government meets a series of demands including the release of political prisoners and changes to the military-drafted constitution. |
| As it stands, the election result is likely to be dismissed by many countries around the world as too unrepresentative and too tightly controlled by the military to be recognised officially. | As it stands, the election result is likely to be dismissed by many countries around the world as too unrepresentative and too tightly controlled by the military to be recognised officially. |
| Yet Than Shwe clings to the hope that the election will give his rule international legitimacy. | Yet Than Shwe clings to the hope that the election will give his rule international legitimacy. |
| The election will, though, make meaningful changes to the arbitrary way Burma is ruled by a small cabal of military men. | The election will, though, make meaningful changes to the arbitrary way Burma is ruled by a small cabal of military men. |
| If it can be improved, if the military can be persuaded to allow the opposition a greater role - these are very big ifs - it could offer the country a way out of its current dire predicament. | If it can be improved, if the military can be persuaded to allow the opposition a greater role - these are very big ifs - it could offer the country a way out of its current dire predicament. |
| This is a prize Ban Ki-moon clearly thinks is worth pursuing. | This is a prize Ban Ki-moon clearly thinks is worth pursuing. |
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