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Do bookies actually read the Bookers? | Do bookies actually read the Bookers? |
(about 21 hours later) | |
Wolf Hall, the Henry VIII-themed novel, is the hot favourite to win the Man Booker Prize. How do bookies work out odds on a book? | Wolf Hall, the Henry VIII-themed novel, is the hot favourite to win the Man Booker Prize. How do bookies work out odds on a book? |
For the six authors in the running for the Man Booker Prize for Fiction, there's a lot at stake - a prize pot of £50,000 and a vigorous bounce in sales. | For the six authors in the running for the Man Booker Prize for Fiction, there's a lot at stake - a prize pot of £50,000 and a vigorous bounce in sales. |
But others have a financial stake in which way the judges jump on Tuesday night - those who take a flutter on the winner. | But others have a financial stake in which way the judges jump on Tuesday night - those who take a flutter on the winner. |
The odds-on favourite is Hilary Mantel's Wolf Hall, a sweeping historical novel about Thomas Cromwell, Henry VIII's marriage fixer. Both William Hill and Paddy Power are offering odds of 4/5 (win £4 for every £5 staked). | The odds-on favourite is Hilary Mantel's Wolf Hall, a sweeping historical novel about Thomas Cromwell, Henry VIII's marriage fixer. Both William Hill and Paddy Power are offering odds of 4/5 (win £4 for every £5 staked). |
How do bookmakers judge what's likely to win? Do bookies read the Bookers? | How do bookmakers judge what's likely to win? Do bookies read the Bookers? |
"How have these books been reviewed - that's my form guide," says William Hill's Graham Sharpe, who has compiled the odds for the literary prize for a quarter of a century. | "How have these books been reviewed - that's my form guide," says William Hill's Graham Sharpe, who has compiled the odds for the literary prize for a quarter of a century. |
THE ANSWER Odds based on book reviewsAnd which get the most betsWolf Hall is favourite, with good reviews and 95% of bets placed At-a-glance: Man Booker shortlist class="" href="/2/hi/entertainment/8287041.stm">Neck ache, bad sex... who'd be a Booker judge? | |
"If I go to check the reviews, I get a good sense of the perceived wisdom about how good a book is," Mr Sharpe says. | "If I go to check the reviews, I get a good sense of the perceived wisdom about how good a book is," Mr Sharpe says. |
Enthusiastically reviewed since its publication in spring, Wolf Hall certainly has good form. | Enthusiastically reviewed since its publication in spring, Wolf Hall certainly has good form. |
The Times's reviewer declares herself "gripped"; the Observer calls it a "humane and bewitching novel"; for the London Review of Books, it holds "substantial and deep" pleasures. | The Times's reviewer declares herself "gripped"; the Observer calls it a "humane and bewitching novel"; for the London Review of Books, it holds "substantial and deep" pleasures. |
Throughout the year, Mr Sharpe keeps an eye on what reviewers and bloggers have to say about newly released novels, and keeps a clippings file of any fancied titles. "This is my own arsenal of information." | Throughout the year, Mr Sharpe keeps an eye on what reviewers and bloggers have to say about newly released novels, and keeps a clippings file of any fancied titles. "This is my own arsenal of information." |
Will Cromwell triumph with the judges? | Will Cromwell triumph with the judges? |
He also takes into account the public's choices, by looking at which novels people are putting money on. "You can assume that if someone wants to bet on a book, it's usually because they like that particular book." So far 95% of the bets William Hill has taken are on Wolf Hall. | He also takes into account the public's choices, by looking at which novels people are putting money on. "You can assume that if someone wants to bet on a book, it's usually because they like that particular book." So far 95% of the bets William Hill has taken are on Wolf Hall. |
Mr Sharpe also reads the short-listed books himself. "But it's irrelevant what I think. I'm trying to second-guess the judges. It's an inexact science, based as much on instinct as anything else." | Mr Sharpe also reads the short-listed books himself. "But it's irrelevant what I think. I'm trying to second-guess the judges. It's an inexact science, based as much on instinct as anything else." |
Sometimes, he says, shrewd PR people place bets on their clients' books to improve the odds and therefore create a bit of a buzz. | Sometimes, he says, shrewd PR people place bets on their clients' books to improve the odds and therefore create a bit of a buzz. |
"If it's placed online, we can't tell, but if a flurry of bets is placed in Bloomsbury [a London neighbourhood and the heart of the literary community], for instance, there's a chance that that is what's happening." | "If it's placed online, we can't tell, but if a flurry of bets is placed in Bloomsbury [a London neighbourhood and the heart of the literary community], for instance, there's a chance that that is what's happening." |
WHO, WHAT, WHY? A regular part of the BBC News Magazine, Who, What, Why? aims to answer some of the questions behind the headlines | WHO, WHAT, WHY? A regular part of the BBC News Magazine, Who, What, Why? aims to answer some of the questions behind the headlines |
And which is his own personal favourite of the shortlisted six? | And which is his own personal favourite of the shortlisted six? |
"Well, let's just say that the wife is a Henry VIII expert, and I've passed Wolf Hall on to her." | "Well, let's just say that the wife is a Henry VIII expert, and I've passed Wolf Hall on to her." |
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