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| Could another Icelandic volcano erupt soon? | Could another Icelandic volcano erupt soon? |
| (about 15 hours later) | |
| By Victoria Gill Science reporter, BBC News | By Victoria Gill Science reporter, BBC News |
| As scientists and air travellers alike keep a close eye on Iceland's ongoing volcanic eruption, some reports suggest that another, much bigger, volcano could stir in the near future. | As scientists and air travellers alike keep a close eye on Iceland's ongoing volcanic eruption, some reports suggest that another, much bigger, volcano could stir in the near future. |
| Katla is Eyjafjallajokull's more active neighbour, and scientists believe that there may be a link between the two volcanoes. | Katla is Eyjafjallajokull's more active neighbour, and scientists believe that there may be a link between the two volcanoes. |
| This link has not been physically proven, explains Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson a geophysicist from the University of Iceland. A circumstantial, historical connection "is putting people's eyes on Katla," he says. | This link has not been physically proven, explains Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson a geophysicist from the University of Iceland. A circumstantial, historical connection "is putting people's eyes on Katla," he says. |
| "We know of four Eyjafjallajokull eruptions in the past [dating back to AD 500] and in three out of these four cases, there has been a Katla eruption either at the same time or shortly after. | "We know of four Eyjafjallajokull eruptions in the past [dating back to AD 500] and in three out of these four cases, there has been a Katla eruption either at the same time or shortly after. |
| "By shortly, I mean timescales of months to a year. | "By shortly, I mean timescales of months to a year. |
| "We consider that the probability of Katla erupting in the near future has increased since Eyjafjallajokull went." | "We consider that the probability of Katla erupting in the near future has increased since Eyjafjallajokull went." |
| Kathryn Goodenough from the British Geological Survey points out that, as yet, there is no physical explanation for this apparent link. | Kathryn Goodenough from the British Geological Survey points out that, as yet, there is no physical explanation for this apparent link. |
| It seems that when Eyjafjallajokull goes off, Katla tends to follow. Kathryn GoodenoughBritish Geological Survey | It seems that when Eyjafjallajokull goes off, Katla tends to follow. Kathryn GoodenoughBritish Geological Survey |
| "Scientists don't yet know what the connection is," she says. | "Scientists don't yet know what the connection is," she says. |
| "But we know there are fissures running between the two volcanoes. And they're quite close to each other. | "But we know there are fissures running between the two volcanoes. And they're quite close to each other. |
| "They're also being subjected to the same tectonic forces. So the chances are that if magma can find a pathway to rise beneath one of them, it can find its way to rise beneath the other." | "They're also being subjected to the same tectonic forces. So the chances are that if magma can find a pathway to rise beneath one of them, it can find its way to rise beneath the other." |
| Researchers do know that the two volcanoes have separate magma chambers, but many suspect that these chambers are physically linked in some way, deep beneath the surface of the Earth. | Researchers do know that the two volcanoes have separate magma chambers, but many suspect that these chambers are physically linked in some way, deep beneath the surface of the Earth. |
| "But this is only speculative," says Dr Goodenough. "We don't have geophysical evidence that makes that clear." | "But this is only speculative," says Dr Goodenough. "We don't have geophysical evidence that makes that clear." |
| Overdue eruption | Overdue eruption |
| Katla's last eruption was in 1918. It lasted for three weeks and up to a cubic kilometre of material exploded through its vent. | Katla's last eruption was in 1918. It lasted for three weeks and up to a cubic kilometre of material exploded through its vent. |
| "It's a much more active volcano than Eyjafjallajokull - it has had about 20 eruptions in the last 1,000 years, so it erupts about once every 50 years on average," says Professor Gudmundsson. | "It's a much more active volcano than Eyjafjallajokull - it has had about 20 eruptions in the last 1,000 years, so it erupts about once every 50 years on average," says Professor Gudmundsson. |
| The combination of ice and magma makes for an explosive eruption | The combination of ice and magma makes for an explosive eruption |
| "At first glance people would say it's now long overdue. But the larger the eruption, the longer the pause (in) time that follows it, and that 1918 eruption was large." | "At first glance people would say it's now long overdue. But the larger the eruption, the longer the pause (in) time that follows it, and that 1918 eruption was large." |
| At the moment, there is no seismic activity detectable underneath Katla that would indicate that magma is moving upward underneath it. | At the moment, there is no seismic activity detectable underneath Katla that would indicate that magma is moving upward underneath it. |
| Scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office are looking at such signals and updating their website regularly with the seismic data that is being produced. | Scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office are looking at such signals and updating their website regularly with the seismic data that is being produced. |
| But Dr Goodenough points out that, with Eyjafjallajokull "we only had a few hours warning". | But Dr Goodenough points out that, with Eyjafjallajokull "we only had a few hours warning". |
| "Seismic monitoring does not necessarily give you advance notice of an eruption." | "Seismic monitoring does not necessarily give you advance notice of an eruption." |
| But it remains a case of watch, wait and look for signs of activity, because it is almost impossible to draw clear conclusions from the historical record, which is simply too short. | But it remains a case of watch, wait and look for signs of activity, because it is almost impossible to draw clear conclusions from the historical record, which is simply too short. |
| While both volcanoes have been repeatedly erupting for hundreds of thousands of years, the earliest eruptions on scientists' records occurred less than 2,000 years ago. | |
| "We haven't established any physical link [between the volcanoes] - we only have this circumstantial evidence," says Professor Gudmundsson. "And we simply don't have enough data to be able to work out what the probability of a Katla eruption is." | "We haven't established any physical link [between the volcanoes] - we only have this circumstantial evidence," says Professor Gudmundsson. "And we simply don't have enough data to be able to work out what the probability of a Katla eruption is." |
| Flooding concern | Flooding concern |
| Katla is much larger than Eyjafjallajokull, with a magma chamber about 10 times the size. | Katla is much larger than Eyjafjallajokull, with a magma chamber about 10 times the size. |
| If and when it does go off, the combination of the magma and the large ice sheet covering the volcano could lead to explosive activity for a long time, says Dr Goodenough. | If and when it does go off, the combination of the magma and the large ice sheet covering the volcano could lead to explosive activity for a long time, says Dr Goodenough. |
| It is the explosive nature of the current volcanic eruption, which caused an ash plume to be sent high into the atmosphere and affect flights in the UK and Europe. | It is the explosive nature of the current volcanic eruption, which caused an ash plume to be sent high into the atmosphere and affect flights in the UK and Europe. |
| More worryingly for the people of Iceland, an eruption at Katla would probably cause major flooding. The volcano's ice sheet is 600-700m thick and all of this ice would quickly melt on to the surrounding area, which is primarily agricultural land. | More worryingly for the people of Iceland, an eruption at Katla would probably cause major flooding. The volcano's ice sheet is 600-700m thick and all of this ice would quickly melt on to the surrounding area, which is primarily agricultural land. |
| But Professor Gudmundsson says there are "no signs yet" of an impending eruption. "Our eyes are not glued to Katla, we are thinking about the eruption that is happening now." | But Professor Gudmundsson says there are "no signs yet" of an impending eruption. "Our eyes are not glued to Katla, we are thinking about the eruption that is happening now." |
| But Dr Goodenough adds that "substantial amounts of magma" are rising underneath both volcanoes. | But Dr Goodenough adds that "substantial amounts of magma" are rising underneath both volcanoes. |
| "And it seems that when Eyjafjallajokull goes off, Katla tends to follow." | "And it seems that when Eyjafjallajokull goes off, Katla tends to follow." |