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Eastleigh voters ignore Rennard row as ground war rumbles on Eastleigh voters ignore Rennard row as ground war rumbles on
(7 months later)
Nick Clegg's failure to hold his party's election guru Chris Rennard to account over harassment allegations dominated Conservative air war against their Liberal Democrat coalition partners in the Eastleigh byelection on Monday. But even Maria Hutchings, the Tory candidate, agrees that it is the ground war over local issues that will decide Thursday's result.Nick Clegg's failure to hold his party's election guru Chris Rennard to account over harassment allegations dominated Conservative air war against their Liberal Democrat coalition partners in the Eastleigh byelection on Monday. But even Maria Hutchings, the Tory candidate, agrees that it is the ground war over local issues that will decide Thursday's result.
"Not one person has mentioned it," Hutchings says as she canvasses, appropriately enough, on Telegraph Hill."Not one person has mentioned it," Hutchings says as she canvasses, appropriately enough, on Telegraph Hill.
At the weekend, the Tory media piled in behind party headquarters to shore up Hutchings' trailing candidacy by running profiles about her authenticity, attacking Labour's candidate, John O'Farrell, a comedian, for a long career in bad-taste jokes and highlighting the deputy prime minister's uncertain response to the Rennard controversy.At the weekend, the Tory media piled in behind party headquarters to shore up Hutchings' trailing candidacy by running profiles about her authenticity, attacking Labour's candidate, John O'Farrell, a comedian, for a long career in bad-taste jokes and highlighting the deputy prime minister's uncertain response to the Rennard controversy.
Still quietly confident that their local councillor Mike Thornton will succeed the disgraced Chris Huhne, Lib Dems now admit the result will be "quite tight". Pollsters and bookies agree. But it will be schools, jobs, Eastleigh's controversial new 1,400-home estate at Botley – Hutchings' number one issue as the campaign ends – versus Tory Hampshire council's gravel pits at Hamble that will clinch it, not Rennard ("only raised once") or even chancellor's George Osborne's loss of the UK's AAA credit rating.Still quietly confident that their local councillor Mike Thornton will succeed the disgraced Chris Huhne, Lib Dems now admit the result will be "quite tight". Pollsters and bookies agree. But it will be schools, jobs, Eastleigh's controversial new 1,400-home estate at Botley – Hutchings' number one issue as the campaign ends – versus Tory Hampshire council's gravel pits at Hamble that will clinch it, not Rennard ("only raised once") or even chancellor's George Osborne's loss of the UK's AAA credit rating.
"Everyone's human, they make mistakes," an elderly Lib Dem voter tells Michael Crick of Channel 4 News when he plays the Rennard card, a tactic that O'Farrell is ignoring because it feeds what he calls a negative political narrative. "I don't know Rennard, but it won't have an impact on the vote in Eastleigh," a Tory says a few doors down. The real impact may be on Clegg's position, not Thornton's, Labour MPs admit."Everyone's human, they make mistakes," an elderly Lib Dem voter tells Michael Crick of Channel 4 News when he plays the Rennard card, a tactic that O'Farrell is ignoring because it feeds what he calls a negative political narrative. "I don't know Rennard, but it won't have an impact on the vote in Eastleigh," a Tory says a few doors down. The real impact may be on Clegg's position, not Thornton's, Labour MPs admit.
O'Farrell is cheerfully struggling ("I'm a special trial offer MP, if you don't like me in two years you can vote me out") to avoid being pushed into fourth place by a confident Ukip campaign that claims to be taking protest votes from all three rivals. Ukip is focusing on immigration in a suburban slice of Middle Britain South where complaints about east Europeans taking jobs and benefits are widespread. Labour belatedly acknowledges it is a problem.O'Farrell is cheerfully struggling ("I'm a special trial offer MP, if you don't like me in two years you can vote me out") to avoid being pushed into fourth place by a confident Ukip campaign that claims to be taking protest votes from all three rivals. Ukip is focusing on immigration in a suburban slice of Middle Britain South where complaints about east Europeans taking jobs and benefits are widespread. Labour belatedly acknowledges it is a problem.
At a bustling industrial unit on the Shakespeare business estate, tour buses deliver fresh consignments of Lib Dem volunteers. There were 450 in town on Saturday, 350 on Sunday, almost as many expected by Monday night, highly motivated and well organised.At a bustling industrial unit on the Shakespeare business estate, tour buses deliver fresh consignments of Lib Dem volunteers. There were 450 in town on Saturday, 350 on Sunday, almost as many expected by Monday night, highly motivated and well organised.
Only Diane James's tiny Ukip campaign base on Market Street has anything like the same buzz, though the Tories – whose grassroots in Eastleigh withered in the 1990s – flooded the seat with volunteers and leaflets too at the weekend. "Westminster researchers most of them," say scornful local Lib Dems.Only Diane James's tiny Ukip campaign base on Market Street has anything like the same buzz, though the Tories – whose grassroots in Eastleigh withered in the 1990s – flooded the seat with volunteers and leaflets too at the weekend. "Westminster researchers most of them," say scornful local Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems hold all 40 council seats in the constituency and pavement politics is their forte – campaign skills honed by Rennard for decades. In a byelection deemed by some to be a coalition-buster, the irony is that Rennard's fatal legacy may not be groping allegations but campaign overkill. " What are people asking us about? Very little actually, they are so pissed off with byelection madness they just want to get us off the doorstep," admits one veteran Lib Dem. Some voters have had six or seven phone calls, flyers or visits.The Lib Dems hold all 40 council seats in the constituency and pavement politics is their forte – campaign skills honed by Rennard for decades. In a byelection deemed by some to be a coalition-buster, the irony is that Rennard's fatal legacy may not be groping allegations but campaign overkill. " What are people asking us about? Very little actually, they are so pissed off with byelection madness they just want to get us off the doorstep," admits one veteran Lib Dem. Some voters have had six or seven phone calls, flyers or visits.
Hutchings is learning fast. A more confident and careful candidate than last week, she even concedes now she might not vote to leave the EU if David Cameron renegotiates a revised deal. Ukip's James, a more polished professional who quit the Tories because she felt Cameron patronises women, thinks he's still wriggling – and that Rennard is "not an issue yet".Hutchings is learning fast. A more confident and careful candidate than last week, she even concedes now she might not vote to leave the EU if David Cameron renegotiates a revised deal. Ukip's James, a more polished professional who quit the Tories because she felt Cameron patronises women, thinks he's still wriggling – and that Rennard is "not an issue yet".
Thornton's mighty machine and local cred should carry him to victory. But this is an odd campaign. Thursday night may bring a surprise. But what?Thornton's mighty machine and local cred should carry him to victory. But this is an odd campaign. Thursday night may bring a surprise. But what?
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