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India's economy panel cuts growth forecast sharply | India's economy panel cuts growth forecast sharply |
(35 minutes later) | |
The Indian prime minister's economic advisory council has lowered the growth outlook for the current financial year. | |
It now expects the economy to expand by 5.3% this year, down from its earlier projection of 6.4% growth. | It now expects the economy to expand by 5.3% this year, down from its earlier projection of 6.4% growth. |
The new growth outlook is in line with the projections of the central bank and many other economists. | The new growth outlook is in line with the projections of the central bank and many other economists. |
The council also warned that keeping the fiscal deficit within the budget target of 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) "could be a challenge". | |
In its latest economic outlook, the council said that the fiscal deficit during the first four months of the current financial year had already reached 62.8% of the budgetary provision for the full year. | |
Currency concerns | |
India's growth has been hurt by a range of factors in recent months. including a slowdown in key sectors such as mining and manufacturing. | |
At the same time, a lack of crucial reforms has seen foreign investors become sceptical of entering the country. | |
The situation has become worse in recent months as many investors have pulled out from the country. | |
A slowdown in India's growth, coupled with a recovery in developed markets such as the US - which has made India a less attractive investment option - has prompted them to look for other options. | |
The prospect of the US withdrawing a key stimulus programme sooner than expected and a possible rise in interest rates in the US have also played a role in the pull-out. | |
This has hurt India's currency, which has dipped as much 20% against the US dollar since May this year. | |
That has made imports more expensive, hurting India's economy even more, not least because of its already high current account deficit. | |
A current account deficit happens when the country's import bill is bigger than its earnings from exports. A widening deficit puts strain on the nation's foreign exchange reserves. | |
In its report, the council said the sharp decline in the currency had not only hurt efforts to bring the deficit under control, but was a hurdle in kick-starting growth. | |
"The currency problems have momentarily interrupted the process of revival of growth," it said. | |
It added that the currency situation needed to be "stabilised as soon as possible". |
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