How the big hitters fared in the battle to keep Scotland in the union

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/19/politicians-scotland-no-campaign-reputation

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David Cameron

The prime minister emerged from Thursday's referendum with his reputation intact as a lucky man who too often flies by the seat of his pants.

Although he said his name was not on the ballot paper, he knew backbench MPs were lining up to call for his resignation if the referendum was lost.

He knew the vultures were circling to criticise him for ever ceding the referendum to the SNP or agreeing terms of a referendum so suitable to Alex Salmond, including the question on the ballot paper, the enfranchisement of 16- and 17-year-olds, and finally the exclusion of greater devolution. None of this now matters in light of the result. The referendum's outcome is the one he intended – the removal of the independence question for 15 years or more.

It is too early to say what impact this will have on the palsied state of the Conservatives in Scotland, but there are tentative signs that some former Scottish Tories in rural areas may have been weaned off nationalism, and even the SNP. It is too early to talk of a revival of the Scots Tories, but it is not inconceivable.

His officials insist he did not panic in the campaign when the polls sharply narrowed, or make substantive concessions on devolution or its timetable in the final days.

But the impression remains that once YouGov showed a surprise lead for yes, Better Together did change tack and start to highlight how the choice was not between the status quo and change but between two different versions of change. Much of this was imposed on him by Gordon Brown. Relying on the tactical campaigning insights of his predecessor in Downing Street to save his political skin must have been one of the more surreal moments of his career.

It must have been an unsavoury experience, and it has left some Tory backbenchers unclear as to precisely what Cameron guaranteed to Scotland. Bernard Jenkin, the Conservative chair of the public administration select committee, for instance, said: "We must honour the promises we have made to Scotland, whatever they are. We have got to find out what they are."

James Wharton, a Conservative MP in the north-east, also expressed his horror at the continuation of subsidies to Scotland, saying: "I cannot ignore the threat that devolution poses to my region."

Cameron now needs to balance the demands of his backbenchers and the need to fulfil the vows he made to the people of Scotland. In practice, those vows are quite limited: a promise of a draft bill on Scottish devolution.

Ed Miliband

The Scottish referendum campaign highlighted some of Ed Miliband's strengths as Labour leader. But it also pinpointed some dangers on the road towards next year's general election.

When the polls tightened in the final stages Miliband knew instinctively that the UK as a whole – and the Labour party in particular – was facing a perilous moment. His response, in suggesting to the prime minister that the three main UK party leaders should jointly set out plans to devolve further powers to Holyrood, will be remembered as one of his most astute moves.

But the campaign, which saw the yes side triumph in Labour's former stronghold of Glasgow, highlighted pitfalls for Miliband, who cannot hope to govern without a strong performance by Labour in Wales and Scotland in the general election. He is the first Labour leader since Harold Wilson, with the brief exception of Margaret Beckett, who has no personal connection in the UK beyond England.

It was not Miliband's fault that intransigent yes supporters barracked him in Edinburgh. But the referendum campaign showed that he needs to be careful not to sound like an outsider in Scotland and Wales, as he did when he tried to underline his links with Scotland by saying that his late father had served north of the border during the war.

The result also highlighted some potential structural weaknesses for Labour. Strategists are likely to have sleepless nights after the yes side secured a narrow victory in Glasgow, fearing the SNP could use the momentum to try to build a parliamentary base in the city.

Miliband began the momentous week in UK politics wondering in private whether he might have to table a vote of confidence in David Cameron after a yes vote. But he arrived in Manchester for the Labour conference facing a serious threat to Labour.

The prime minister's plan to restrict the voting rights of Scottish MPs contains a potentially lethal threat to his party which would find it all but impossible to govern without the support of its 41 MPs from north of the border.

Miliband could win an election, pass a Queen's speech and a budget and then find it impossible to pass legislation on schools and hospitals. Labour currently has 41 of the 59 Scottish MPs. The Tories have just one MP north of the border.

The prime minister announced that legislation on his plans would be introduced after the next general election in May 2015. This means that Miliband could dismiss Cameron's answer to the West Lothian question and seek to govern with the support of Scottish MPs.

But Cameron has set two traps for Miliband. He has said that if there is no agreement by the time of the general election he will seek a mandate for his proposals from voters. This could leave Miliband having to persuade English voters, who have displayed mixed thoughts about the Scottish referendum, to accept that Scottish MPs should have a say over English matters while English MPs have no say over devolved Scottish matters.

The second trap laid by the prime minister could lead to the whole constitutional process unravelling. Cameron regards his proposals as a "balanced settlement" in which the new rules for voting at Westminster "must take place in tandem with, and at the same time as, the settlement for Scotland". The clear implication is that if one element is rejected the whole process could fall apart.

Miliband warned the prime minister not to use this moment for what he called "narrow party political advantage". He announced plans to establish a constitutional convention in the autumn of next year, ensuring that Cameron's plans to limit the voting rights of Scottish MPs could not be in place by the time of the election.

Gordon Brown

Lampooned as the prime minister who failed to connect with Middle England voters, Gordon Brown has revived his political reputation after forming a startling connection with middle Scotland voters.

Brown's appearances on the stump in the final stages of the campaign electrified the no side and are likely to have played a key role in shoring up the support of natural Labour voters who appeared to be moving to the yes camp.

Even his critics described Brown's eve of poll speech in the Maryhill area of Glasgow as a barnstorming performance which combined an appeal from the heart with a demolition job on the SNP's economic proposals.

Brown transformed the Yes campaign with a simple, but penetrating, insight which he outlined in his book, My Scotland, Our Britain. This was that the Better Together campaign had made a mistake in allowing the SNP to frame the referendum campaign as a debate between Scotland and the rest of the UK. The former prime minister had been telling colleagues that the Better Together campaign needed to be reframed as a patriotic vision for what is best for Scotland.

The former prime minister's most significant intervention came when he bounced Downing Street into accepting his plans for a deepening of Scotland's devolution settlement, which he described as home rule within the UK.

Cameron is making it clear he greatly appreciates Brown's interventions. He may want to think with care about taking an overly partisan approach to the new constitutional settlement after his predecessor played such an important role in saving the union, thereby saving Cameron's premiership.

Alistair Darling

Alistair Darling will probably conclude that his three years as chancellor of the exchequer during a period he famously described as "arguably" the worst global downturn in 60 years was the most dramatic phase of his career.

But his role as leader of the Better Together campaign in the Scottish referendum will run a reasonably close second.

The relentless and intense pace of the campaign gave Darling a vivid – and unpleasant – taste of the old cliche about how easy it can be to go from hero to zero.

Darling's finest hour of the campaign came in his first televised debate with Alex Salmond when he pounded his opponent, reducing the normally silver-tongued first minister to a tongue-tied, cornered animal over his plans for a currency. The pugnacious performance by Darling, in which he repeatedly challenged Salmond to name his Plan B after the main UK parties had rejected a currency union, astonished his friends and his opponents.

Within weeks, however, Darling faltered when Salmond fought back in a combative performance in their second and final televised debate. The first minister neutralised the currency issue as he joked that he had three Plan Bs. Salmond also unsettled the Better Together campaign, and reached out to natural Labour supporters, by warning that the Tories would end up privatising the NHS in Scotland even though it is a devolved matter.

Darling's weak television performance prompted criticisms within the Better Together campaign that he was not quick-witted enough to cope with Salmond. There were also concerns that he had made an error of strategic proportions by allowing Salmond, in the words of one source, to "out-Labour" him.

But the qualities which had led to Darling's appointment to run the cross-party campaign in the first place came into play as he made way for Gordon Brown to take centre stage as Better Together moved to shore up the Labour vote. Darling's lack of ego meant that he easily made a hard-headed decision that it would be better if the former prime minister, with whom he has a testy relationship, appeared in the campaign's last election broadcast.

In the final rally of the campaign in Glasgow on Wednesday, Darling also made way for Brown who had tried to remove him as chancellor in the summer of 2009. Darling delivered a low key speech at the rally, ensuring that the final television bulletins would be dominated by Brown's speech.