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King Abdullah’s Successor Pledges Continuity in Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia’s Succession Line Is Set, but the Nation’s Path Remains Uncertain
(about 3 hours later)
BEIRUT, Lebanon — Saudi Arabia’s new king moved swiftly on Friday to assert the continuity of his family’s rule, declaring that he would not veer from Saudi traditions and appointing two younger successors who could lead the oil-rich monarchy for decades to come. BEIRUT, Lebanon — Saudi Arabia’s new king moved with unprecedented swiftness on Friday to appoint not only the heir to his throne but the heir to his heir as well.
In a region wracked with war and instability, the orderly ascension of King Salman so promptly after the death of his half brother, King Abdullah, projected an image of cohesiveness unshaken by the region’s many crises. If all proceeds according to plan — as most Saudis and some analysts assume it will — the chain of succession dictated by King Salman after the death of his half brother Abdullah lays out who will be the head of state of one of the Arab world’s richest and most influential nations through the middle of this century.
“We will continue adhering to the correct policies which Saudi Arabia has followed since its establishment,” Salman declared in a televised address. Such a long-term road map represented a show of confidence in the national project, especially in an era when longtime Arab leaders have been tossed out by popular revolts and neighboring states like Iraq, Yemen and Syria are breaking apart.
He assumes the throne at a time when significant challenges face his realm, the world’s leading oil exporter and one of the United States’s strongest allies in the Arab world. But analysts who study Saudi Arabia say that despite the ruling family’s public display of unity and confidence, the kingdom faces profound internal pressures that its leaders have in many ways failed to address.
The extremists of the Islamic State continue to draw new recruits, including hundreds of young Saudis, and the Western-backed government in neighboring Yemen has collapsed, creating new opportunities for Al Qaeda, which dreams of ending the Saudi monarchy’s control of Islam’s holiest sites. For decades, members of the ruling family, supported by the country’s staunchly conservative religious establishment, have maintained power through a combination of social control and state generosity, which has been underwritten by the vast revenues Saudi Arabia earns as the world’s largest exporter of crude oil.
The recent fall in world oil prices may strain the country’s finances as it seeks to diversify its economy and to integrate its large and not particularly well-educated youth population into the work force. While the Saudi model still mostly holds, generational shifts have begun to chip away at its coherence.
Analysts said they did not expect Salman to pursue policies significantly different from the gradual reformist agenda of his predecessor. Salman’s only immediate policy initiative on Friday was to clarify who would succeed him. The issue was a pressing one because the new monarch is thought to be 79 years old, and he has had various health problems. Clerics still hold power and the religious police still patrol public spaces, but some religious dictates go unheeded. The kingdom recently let investors buy shares in a national bank in a multibillion-dollar initial public offering, despite statements from top clerics that buying shares was forbidden on religious grounds.
The new appointments appeared to resolve a thorny generational issue. So far, every king of Saudi Arabia since the death of the country’s founder, King Abdulaziz, in 1953 has been one of his dozens of sons — Salman is the fifth to reign. And then there was condemnation of Twitter by Saudi’s Grand Mufti as a “council of clowns,” which continues to be flouted daily by millions of Saudis, including King Salman, who tweeted to his more than one million followers on Friday that he had asked God to make him succeed in serving his people.
Under the royal decrees issued Friday, one more half brother — Muqrin — has been named crown prince and next in line for the throne. After him will come the country’s powerful interior minister, Mohammed bin Nayef, who was named deputy crown prince on Friday; he is the first heir to the throne from among Abdulaziz’s grandsons. The state has also lagged in integrating its large and not particularly well-educated youth population into the economy. A few hundred young men have given up on the kingdom and joined the jihadists of the Islamic State. Many others remain at home, either unemployed or underemployed.
“This settles for a long time the question of succession to the next generation,” said Steffen Hertog, an associate professor of comparative politics at the London School of Economics. “It removed a bit of worry for a lot of Saudis, who thought that there would be infighting.” But the biggest challenge the country faces may be one at least partly of its own making: the decline in the oil revenues that form the economic foundation of the state. As the dominant producer in OPEC, Saudi Arabia’s decisions on production levels have enormous influence on world oil markets, and it has maintained fairly high output in recent months despite an oversupplied market, helping to seriously depress prices.
The most important ministries in the Saudi government are held by members of the royal family, and Salman did not announce any changes to the roster, other than to appoint his son Prince Mohammed bin Salman to replace him as defense minister and to lead the royal court. Longtime figures kept their posts, including Prince Bandar bin Sultan who remains the national security council adviser. Saudi leaders use their oil income not only to influence regional politics, but to pacify their own people. After the popular uprisings known as the Arab Spring toppled or threatened several Saudi allies in the region, Saudi Arabia responded by bankrolling its friends abroad and spending lavishly on domestic projects.
Frederic Wehrey, who studies Saudi Arabia for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the choice of Mohammed bin Nayef, a leader in the Saudi fight against Islamic militants, suggested that relations with the United States would remain strong. “Things are always sustainable in Saudi when they can afford to keep paying,” said Steffen Hertog, an associate professor of comparative politics at the London School of Economics.
But the drop in oil prices has resulted in a $38.6 billion deficit in Saudi Arabia’s budget for 2015. That could limit the country’s ability to maneuver, but only if oil prices remain low for an extended period. The International Monetary Fund estimated Saudi Arabia’s reserves at $750 billion, which can buy it time to wait for oil prices to go back up.
“They have a cushion that they can live on for another decade or so, but they may not be able to afford it if the oil price stays low,” Mr. Hertog said.
Analysts said they did not expect Salman to pursue policies significantly different from those of his predecessor, King Abdullah. His only immediate initiative was clarifying who would succeed him. The issue was a pressing one because the new monarch is thought to be 79 years old, and he is said to be showing his age.
The appointment of successors appeared to resolve a thorny generational issue. So far, every king of Saudi Arabia since the death in 1953 of the country’s founder, King Abdulaziz, has been one of his dozens of sons, with Salman the fifth to reign.
Under the royal decrees issued Friday, one more half brother — Muqrin, the youngest of Abdulaziz’s sons deemed fit to rule — was named crown prince and next in line for the throne. After him will come the country’s powerful interior minister, Mohammed bin Nayef, who was named deputy crown prince on Friday; he is the first heir to the throne from among Abdulaziz’s grandsons.
The most important ministries in the Saudi government are held by members of the royal family, and Salman did not announce any changes to the roster, other than to appoint his son Prince Mohammed bin Salman to replace him as defense minister and to lead the royal court. Longtime officials kept their posts, including Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who remains the national security council adviser.
Frederic Wehrey, who studies Saudi Arabia for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the choice of Mohammed bin Nayef, the interior minister who is a leader in the Saudi fight against Islamic militants, suggested that relations with the United States would remain strong.
“The centerpiece of Saudi-U.S. cooperation has always been on the intelligence level, and Mohammed bin Nayef has been at the center of that,” he said.“The centerpiece of Saudi-U.S. cooperation has always been on the intelligence level, and Mohammed bin Nayef has been at the center of that,” he said.
The biggest challenge the country faces may be one at least partly of its own making, the decline in the oil revenues that form the economic foundation of the state. As the dominant producer in OPEC, Saudi Arabia’s decisions on production levels have enormous influence on world oil markets, and it has maintained fairly high output recently despite an oversupplied market, helping to depress prices. The new Saudi head of state is rumored in some quarters to be senile, but similar rumors swirled about Abdullah and he was still hailed as a heroic statesman around the world.
Saudi leaders use their oil income not only to affect regional politics but to pacify their own people. After the popular uprisings known as the Arab Spring toppled or threatened several Saudi allies in the region, Saudi Arabia responded by bankrolling its friends abroad and spending lavishly on domestic projects. How much the Saudi ruling family will change to address the country’s challenges remains an open question. Some hailed King Abdullah as a reformer, noting that he defied the religious establishment to push for more women in the workplace and appointed 30 women to a royal advisory council.
The country, with significant reserves of wealth, does not face an immediate financial crisis, but a long period of low oil prices could limit its ability to maneuver, both abroad and at home. “From an American perspective, it may look feeble, but it is meaningful in the context of this society,” said Joseph Kechichian, a senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh.
“Things are always stable in Saudi Arabia when they can afford to keep paying,” Mr. Hertog said. Others note that Saudi women still cannot drive and dissidents are jailed and flogged for expressing views seen as commonplace elsewhere.
King Salman’s ascension came the day after the abrupt collapse of the government of neighboring Yemen, leaving that country leaderless in the face of pro-Iranian rebels and a resurgent Al Qaeda affiliate. Simon Henderson, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that domestic issues were less worrisome for the Saudi leadership than were the spreading problems in neighboring states. The collapse of Yemen’s government has provided an opportunity to Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State is continuing to entice recruits to Iraq and Syria.
In his address, King Salman acknowledged the region’s tensions. “The Arab and the Islamic nations are in dire need for solidarity and cohesion,” he said. “It is one thing to have one bit of trouble on the border,” Mr. Henderson said. “But when you have several bits of trouble on the border, that is a bigger deal.”
The scene in Riyadh on Friday clearly demonstrated Saudi Arabia’s regional clout. Leaders like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey swiftly rearranged their schedules to fly to the Saudi capital for King Abdullah’s funeral. King Abdullah II of Jordan canceled an appearance at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in order to attend. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, whose government has received billion of dollars in Saudi support, was expected to be there as well, and his government announced an unusual weeklong period of national mourning.
Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. said he would lead an American delegation to the funeral “to pay our respects and offer condolences.”
Despite tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Iranian government also offered condolences on Friday, and said that its foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, would attend an official memorial service for Abdullah.
The rivalry between the two countries is one of the region’s principal fault lines. It is in part a geopolitical struggle between nations that each see themselves as the natural leading power in the region and in the Islamic world. But it also reflects the broader division between Shiite Muslims, who govern in Iran, and Sunni Muslims like those who dominate in Saudi Arabia.
In the Syrian civil war, the two countries back opposing sides, with Saudi Arabia supporting efforts to oust President Bashar al-Assad while Iran has helped him remain in power.
The royal court in Saudi Arabia did not disclose the cause of Abdullah’s death. He had been hospitalized in Riyadh since New Year’s Eve with what the official Saudi Press Agency said was a lung infection.
Worshipers led by Salman prayed over his body in a mosque on Friday, and then it was wrapped in white cloth and carried on a pallet to be buried in a simple grave, in line with the kingdom’s austere interpretation of Islam.