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Rebels in Eastern Ukraine Vow to Drive Army From Donetsk Shaky Cease-Fire All but Vanishes in Ukraine as Rebels Vow New Attacks
(about 6 hours later)
DONETSK, Ukraine — A main leader of the Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine said on Friday that his soldiers were “on the offensive” in several sectors, building on their success in capturing a long-contested airport the day before. DONETSK, Ukraine — Unexpectedly, at the height of the Ukrainian winter, war has exploded anew on a half-dozen battered fronts across eastern Ukraine, accompanied by increasing evidence that Russian troops and Russian equipment have been pouring into the region again.
“We will attack” until the Ukrainian Army is driven from the borders of the Donetsk region, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic rebel group, said in comments carried by Russian news agencies. Referring to the Ukrainian government, he said, “Kiev doesn’t understand now that we can attack in three directions simultaneously.” A shaky cease-fire has all but vanished, with rebel leaders vowing fresh attacks. Civilians are being hit by deadly mortars at bus stops. Tanks are rumbling down snowy roads in rebel-held areas with soldiers in unmarked green uniforms sitting on their turrets, waving at bystanders — a disquieting echo of the “little green men” whose appearance in Crimea opened this stubborn conflict in the spring.
Tanks rumbled down the snowy roads of rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine on Friday, with soldiers in green and unmarked uniforms sitting on their turrets, waving at bystanders. The renewed fighting has dashed any hopes of reinvigorating a cease-fire signed in September and honored more in name than in fact since then. It has also put to rest the notion that Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, would be so staggered by the twin blows of Western sanctions and a collapse in oil prices that he would forsake the separatists in order to foster better relations with the West.
Mr. Zakharchenko did not detail the rebels’ intentions, but any major offensive would clearly be a repudiation of the cease-fire signed on Sept. 5 and endorsed by the group’s main sponsor, Russia. That agreement had set the de facto borders of the rebel republic to encompass about one-third of the Donetsk region of Ukraine. Instead, blaming the upsurge in violence on the Ukrainians and the rise in civilian deaths on “those who issue such criminal orders,” as he did on Friday in Moscow, Mr. Putin is apparently doubling down, rather than backing down, in a conflict that is now the bloodiest in Europe since the Balkan wars.
Mr. Zakharchenko has threatened to expand his territory before, but his warnings have not typically prompted much alarm. It is unclear how much freedom he has to act independently of Russia. A major rebel offensive would probably prompt Western nations to impose additional sanctions on Russia, whose economy is already struggling. With the appearance in recent weeks of what NATO calls sophisticated Russian weapons systems, newly emboldened separatist leaders have abandoned all talk of a cease-fire. One of the top leaders of the Russian-backed rebels said Friday that his soldiers were “on the offensive” in several sectors, capitalizing on their capture of the Donetsk airport the day before.
While the rebel leader spoke of his own side’s offensive, Russian officials claimed that the Ukrainian government was responsible for the recent rise in fighting in the east. President Vladimir V. Putin said in broadcast comments to state officials that “the Kiev authorities have given an official order to start large-scale military operations practically throughout the whole line of contact,” Reuters reported. Mr. Putin was quoted as adding, “Those who give these criminal orders are responsible.” “We will attack” until the Ukrainian Army is driven from the border of the Donetsk region, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic rebel group, said in comments carried by Russian news agencies.
Mr. Zakharchenko spoke a day after rebel soldiers pushed the Ukrainian Army out of the ruins of the Donetsk airport, which had been claimed by both sides. It was more of a symbolic prize than a strategic one; the airport’s terminal and runways were destroyed months ago. “On our side, we won’t make an effort to talk about a cease-fire,” Mr. Zakharchenko said. “Now we’re going to watch how Kiev reacts. Kiev doesn’t understand that we can attack in three directions at once.”
By dawn on Thursday, the Ukrainian Army appeared to be in a chaotic and bloody retreat from the airport grounds, leaving behind their dead in the wreckage of the main terminal, a Russian news video showed. For long-suffering residents of Donetsk, who have lived with constant shelling, chronic electricity failures and, since September, a cutoff of pensions and other government support payments from Kiev, the resumption of military action came as little surprise.
Fighting also flared in other areas, including a road and rail hub northeast of Donetsk, as well as a strategic checkpoint near Luhansk, the other main rebel stronghold. Rebel commanders claimed on Friday to have captured the village of Krasny Partizan, north of Donetsk, which would be another setback for government forces. “It was pure illusion that peace could be achieved now,” said Enrique Menendez, a former advertising agency owner who now runs a humanitarian relief operation in eastern Ukraine. “None of the sides has yet achieved its goals. The only real surprise is that the fighting started in the winter instead of the spring.”
Speaking at a meeting of security officials in Kiev after the loss of the airport, President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine expressed frustration with the broken peace process. While the separatist forces now seem ascendant, analysts have little doubt that their fortunes are tied to the level of support provided by Moscow. In August, on the verge of defeat, they were rescued by an all-out Russian incursion that turned the tide on the battlefield and drove Kiev to the bargaining table. The same dynamics appear to be at work now, Ukraine and NATO say, with Russian troops in unmarked uniforms apparently joining the separatists in the assaults on Ukrainian positions.
“If the enemy does not want to abide by the cease-fire, if the enemy doesn’t want to stop the suffering of innocent people in Ukrainian villages and towns,” Mr. Poroshenko said in a statement on his website, “we will give it to them in the teeth.” While Moscow denies any role in the fighting, Sergei A. Markov, a political analyst close to the Kremlin, says it is not surprising that Mr. Putin has continued to support the rebellious republics of southeast Ukraine even in the face of economic pressure from the West. In fact, the intensity of the standoff, he said, has undermined the influence of Mr. Putin’s liberal economic advisers in government, rendering their voices almost mute in debates over Ukraine.
The slow grind of combat that began in April has now killed at least 5,086 soldiers and civilians in eastern Ukraine, the United Nations reported on Friday. The world body bases its estimate on official morgue and hospital reports, and analysts believe that it understates the total death toll. The report said that 262 of the deaths occurred in the past nine days, making that period the deadliest since the September cease-fire. Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, echoed that point. “The influence of economists as a whole has completely vanished,” Mr. Sonin said of the Kremlin. “The country is on a holy mission. It’s at war with the United States, so why would you bother about the small battleground, the economy?”
Mr. Putin is said to watch his approval ratings closely, and they have risen to great heights this year with the annexation of Crimea and the tensions with the West over eastern Ukraine. In this respect, said Igor Shuvalov, a first deputy prime minister of Russia, continued fighting in Ukraine may actually help to solidify Mr. Putin politically at a time of deteriorating economic conditions.
“When a Russian feels any foreign pressure, he will never give up his leader,” Mr. Shuvalov said Friday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “We will survive any hardship in the country, eat less food, use less electricity.”
Nevertheless, Mr. Markov said, the stresses of juggling a war and the deepening economic crisis in Russia have left Mr. Putin noticeably preoccupied,
“We have much less time than before,” he said of a recent meeting between experts and Mr. Putin in which he participated. “It was clear to me that the thoughts of Mr. Putin were somewhere else, but not in our room.”
The slow grind of combat in southeastern Ukraine that began in April has now killed at least 5,086 soldiers and civilians, the United Nations reported on Friday. The world body bases its estimate on official morgue and hospital reports, and analysts believe that it understates the total death toll. The report said that 262 of the deaths occurred in the past nine days, making that period the deadliest since the September cease-fire.
Signs of the new belligerence were evident across eastern Ukraine on Friday.
Indeed, fighting has also flared beyond Donetsk, including a road and rail hub northeast of the city, as well as a strategic checkpoint near Luhansk, the other main rebel stronghold. Rebel commanders claimed on Friday to have captured the village of Krasny Partizan, north of Donetsk, which would be another setback for government forces.
In another worrisome sign, the rebels were not the only ones taking a more aggressive tone.
Speaking to security officials in Kiev after the loss of Donetsk airport, President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine expressed frustration with the broken peace process.
“If the enemy does not want to abide by the cease-fire, if the enemy doesn’t want to stop the suffering of innocent people in Ukrainian villages and towns, we will give it to them in the teeth,” he said.
Any major offensive by either side would clearly be a repudiation of the cease-fire signed on Sept. 5 and endorsed by the group’s main sponsor, Russia. That agreement, always shaky, began to break down several weeks ago. It had set the de facto borders of the rebel republic to encompass about one-third of the Donetsk region of Ukraine.
Mr. Zakharchenko has threatened to expand his territory before, but his warnings have not typically prompted much alarm. Now, with the war raging and his troops on the march, more attention is being paid.
As recently as a few weeks ago, peace seemed to be slowly seeping into the blood-soaked fields of eastern Ukraine. Russia seemed occupied with the drop in oil prices and the ruble’s collapse. The shaky cease-fire was holding. Language on both sides was noticeably more conciliatory.
That all seems a long time ago now on the war-rattled streets of Donetsk, where a main hospital was hit by a shell this week.
If one were to ask the remaining residents of Donetsk, even those who have been loyal to the Kiev government, whether they supported this new rebel advance, they would say yes, Mr. Menendez said — and not necessarily for political reasons.
“They just want to push the front lines out of the city,” he said, “to stop the shelling on them.”