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Leftist Syriza party set to win Greek vote, setting up showdown with Europe Leftist Syriza party set to win Greek vote, setting up showdown with Europe
(about 15 hours later)
ATHENS — To the thumping rhythms of a Leonard Cohen tune, the pair of leftist leaders hugged tight, then thrust their fists into the cool air of an Athens evening as thousands cheered and waved blazing red flags. ATHENS — To the thumping rhythms of a Leonard Cohen tune, the pair of leftist leaders hugged tightly, then thrust their fists into the cool air of an Athens evening as thousands cheered and waved blazing-red flags.
One could be prime minister of Spain by the end of the year. The other could be leading Greece by the end of next week. Together, they presented themselves as the vanguard of a Europe transformed by a surge in radical leftist support unparalleled in the continent’s post-Cold War history. One could be prime minister of Spain by the end of the year. The other could be leading Greece within a week. Together, they presented themselves as the vanguard of a Europe transformed by a surge in radical leftist support unparalleled in the continent’s post-Cold War history.
“There are millions of people across Europe who are watching Greece, and pinning their hopes on us,” shouted Alexis Tsipras, the boyish-looking 40-year-old former Communist activist who is considered a heavy favorite to win Sunday’s elections here. “There are millions of people across Europe who are watching Greece and pinning their hopes on us,” shouted Alexis Tsipras, the boyish-looking 40-year-old former communist activist whose party is considered a heavy favorite to win Sunday’s elections here.
And yet, there are also millions across the continent who will be watching with profound apprehension. If Tsipras and his Syriza party triumph on Sunday, it will set the stage for an epic showdown pitting his anti-austerity insurgency against German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other titans of the European policy establishment. And yet, there are also millions across the continent who will be watching with profound apprehension. If Tsipras and his Syriza party triumph Sunday, it will set the stage for an epic showdown pitting his anti-austerity insurgency against German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other titans of the European policy establishment.
The already-shredded Greek economy will hang in the balance. But so, too, will the future of the currency union at the core of Europe’s economy, as well as the political consensus that has guided the continent through a troubled and still-fragile recovery from a historic recession.The already-shredded Greek economy will hang in the balance. But so, too, will the future of the currency union at the core of Europe’s economy, as well as the political consensus that has guided the continent through a troubled and still-fragile recovery from a historic recession.
On its face, the contest is a mismatch, with small, heavily indebted Greece in poor position to demand a renegotiation of the straight-jacket-style terms of its $284 billion bailout agreements from its German-dominated creditors. On its face, the contest is a mismatch, with small, heavily indebted Greece in poor position to demand a renegotiation of the straitjacket-style terms of its $284 billion bailout agreements from its German-dominated creditors.
And yet, that is exactly what Tsipras has promised at campaign stops around Greece this month, culminating in a prediction Thursday night in Athens that by Monday, “our national humiliation will be over.”And yet, that is exactly what Tsipras has promised at campaign stops around Greece this month, culminating in a prediction Thursday night in Athens that by Monday, “our national humiliation will be over.”
Polls show that Greeks are ready to trust him to make good on the vow. After decades of toggling between center-right and center-left governments, the country is on the verge of electing a former fringe party that encompasses every shade of radical left, including Marxists, Maoists, socialists and greens.Polls show that Greeks are ready to trust him to make good on the vow. After decades of toggling between center-right and center-left governments, the country is on the verge of electing a former fringe party that encompasses every shade of radical left, including Marxists, Maoists, socialists and greens.
The party has ridden a wave of voter exasperation by Greeks fed up after five years of extreme austerity that have left the country with 25 percent unemployment and 3 million people living at or below the poverty line. And while the current center-right government was able to eliminate the annual deficit through deep cuts to public spending, crippling debts remain at 175 percent of GDP. The party has ridden a wave of voter exasperation among Greeks fed up after five years of extreme austerity that left the country with 25 percent unemployment and 3 million people living at or below the poverty line. And while the current center-right government was able to eliminate the annual deficit through deep cuts in public spending, public debt remains at a crippling 175 percent of gross domestic product.
“There is no way that Greek society can withstand the kind of stress they are living under for much longer. That’s clear, and everybody should understand it,” said Francesco Caselli, a professor at the London School of Economics.“There is no way that Greek society can withstand the kind of stress they are living under for much longer. That’s clear, and everybody should understand it,” said Francesco Caselli, a professor at the London School of Economics.
But, Caselli said, Greece is not the only country straining under the yoke of austerity. But Greece is not the only country straining under austerity.
Syriza’s rise has been mirrored by the emergence of other far-left players in Europe, including in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland. All have spoken out against austerity, and have been duly rewarded with rising poll numbers. Syriza’s rise has been mirrored by the emergence of other far-left players in Europe, including in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland. All have spoken out against austerity and have been rewarded with rising popularity.
Most prominent among them is Spain’s Podemos, a party that did not even exist at the start of last year but that has become a legitimate challenger to the country’s entrenched establishment ahead of elections expected in December. Most prominent among them is Spain’s Podemos, a party that did not even exist at the start of last year but has become a legitimate challenger to the country’s entrenched establishment ahead of elections expected in December.
When Pablo Iglesias, the party’s pony-tailed 36-year-old leader, stood alongside Tsipras at Syriza’s final campaign rally Thursday evening, the appearance seemed intended to warn Merkel that the anti-austerity revolt has caught fire on multiple fronts.When Pablo Iglesias, the party’s pony-tailed 36-year-old leader, stood alongside Tsipras at Syriza’s final campaign rally Thursday evening, the appearance seemed intended to warn Merkel that the anti-austerity revolt has caught fire on multiple fronts.
“The wind of democratic change is blowing,” Iglesias told the crowd, provoking a roar. “It is called Syriza in Greece, and in Spain it is called Podemos.”“The wind of democratic change is blowing,” Iglesias told the crowd, provoking a roar. “It is called Syriza in Greece, and in Spain it is called Podemos.”
That political dynamic raises the already considerable stakes in the coming showdown between Greece and its paymasters. Syriza has said it will refuse to make payments unless Greece’s troika of creditors — the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission — forgives some of the country’s debt and allows the government to attempt to stimulate the economy with ramped up public spending. That political dynamic raises the already considerable stakes in the coming showdown between Greece and its paymasters. Syriza has said it will refuse to make payments unless Greece’s troika of creditors — the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission — forgives some of the country’s debt and allows the government to try to stimulate the economy with ramped-up public spending.
“We demand repayment terms that do not cause recession and do not push the people to more despair and poverty,” Tsipras wrote in a piece published this week in the Financial Times.“We demand repayment terms that do not cause recession and do not push the people to more despair and poverty,” Tsipras wrote in a piece published this week in the Financial Times.
As precedent, he cited the 1953 London Conference, which allowed another European country to emerge from the weight of crushing debt — Germany. As precedent, he cited the 1953 London Conference, which allowed another European country — Germany — to emerge from under the weight of crushing debt.
If Merkel and other European leaders yield to Syriza’s demands, it could form another crack in the austerity-first approach that has dominated European policymaking since the continent-wide recession in 2009.If Merkel and other European leaders yield to Syriza’s demands, it could form another crack in the austerity-first approach that has dominated European policymaking since the continent-wide recession in 2009.
As Europe continues to struggle with agonizingly low growth levels six years later, that strategy is coming under increasing assault. On Thursday, the ECB announced $69 billion in monthly bond-buying, despite traditional German opposition to any move that smacks of a back-door bailout for debtor nations. As Europe continues to struggle with agonizingly low growth levels six years later, that strategy is increasingly coming under assault. On Thursday, the ECB announced $69 billion in monthly bond buying, despite traditional German opposition to any move that smacks of a back-door bailout for debtor nations.
Concessions to Greece could give even more momentum to the anti-austerity push.Concessions to Greece could give even more momentum to the anti-austerity push.
“If Syriza is successful, it’s easy to imagine Podemos and parties in Italy and Portugal becoming much more assertive in demanding that the whole macro-economic frame for dealing with the crisis be revisited,” said Caselli, the LSE economist. “The implications could be profound.” “If Syriza is successful, it’s easy to imagine Podemos and parties in Italy and Portugal becoming much more assertive in demanding that the whole macroeconomic frame for dealing with the crisis be revisited,” said Caselli, the LSE economist. “The implications could be profound.”
And yet, some observers believe that’s exactly why Merkel is unlikely to yield. Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director for the Eurasia Group, wrote in a commentary to clients this week that Germany will drive a hard bargain with Greece precisely because it wants to avoid sending the message “that you only have to cry loud enough to get what you want.” And yet, some observers believe that’s exactly why Merkel is unlikely to yield. Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director for the Eurasia Group, wrote in a commentary to clients in the past week that Germany will drive a hard bargain with Greece precisely because it wants to avoid sending the message “that you only have to cry loud enough to get what you want.”
Tsipras and other Syriza leaders have been vague when pressed on what they will do if they can’t negotiate the relief from austerity that they have promised the Greek public. Tsipras and other Syriza leaders have been vague when pressed on what they will do if they cannot negotiate the relief from austerity that they have promised the Greek public.
Although the party once threatened to take Greece out of the euro — a path popularly known as Grexit — it has softened that stance in the face of overwhelming public opinion in favor of staying inside the currency zone. Tsipras has indicated that returning to the drachma, the country’s currency until 2001, is not an option. Although the party once threatened to take Greece out of the euro — a path popularly known as Grexit — it has softened that stance in the face of overwhelming public desire to stay in the currency zone. Tsipras has indicated that returning to the drachma, the country’s currency until 2001, is not an option.
But for Syriza’s grass-roots activists, who have powered the party’s rise to the top of the polls, continuation of the current austerity policies isn’t an option, either.But for Syriza’s grass-roots activists, who have powered the party’s rise to the top of the polls, continuation of the current austerity policies isn’t an option, either.
“If it’s a choice between Grexit and austerity, I’d choose Grexit,” said Stasa Kotara, a 25-year-old party volunteer. “But that’s not the choice yet.” “If it’s a choice between Grexit and austerity, I’d choose Grexit,” said party volunteer Stasa Kotara, 25. “But that’s not the choice yet.”
Austerity, she said, has led the country to the brink of ruin. Friends have lost jobs and homes. Some have moved out of the country. A few have committed suicide.Austerity, she said, has led the country to the brink of ruin. Friends have lost jobs and homes. Some have moved out of the country. A few have committed suicide.
The only course left, she said, is to join other leftists across the continent, and hope that the pressure will force Germany’s chancellor to show uncharacteristic flexibility. The only course left, she said, is to join other leftists across the continent and hope that the pressure will force Germany’s chancellor to show uncharacteristic flexibility.
“I know it’s not easy to negotiate with the giants of the economy,” Kotara said. “The truth is that Syriza alone cannot make a difference. It has to be a European movement.”“I know it’s not easy to negotiate with the giants of the economy,” Kotara said. “The truth is that Syriza alone cannot make a difference. It has to be a European movement.”