Wales and England should ensure Six Nations starts with a bang

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/jan/31/wales-england-six-nations-rugby-union-world-cup

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It is supposed to be a time of peak excitement, when the Six Nations publicity machines are running at maximum revs, no player has yet made a mistake, all teams have dreams intact and the chances of losing bodies to injury between now and Friday are reduced, if only slightly. Conditions in camp tend to be almost as taxing as life in competition, but at least, even in France, 23 players are protected and are sitting out round 17 of the Top 14.

It is not clear if Stuart Lancaster can be included in all this excitement. Every day the coach of England has to view a list of casualties so long that to name them here would be to exhaust the word count. We should need a supplement to do justice to the challenge Lancaster faces on the eve of what those runaway publicists are promoting as England’s biggest rugby year ever.

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By way of contrast, Warren Gatland, five days before Wales-England in Cardiff, has nothing more serious than a strain in Jonathan Davies’s thigh to report. If there is a scare it concerns the weights Wales are humping, the tonnage prompting speculation that the coach’s target is more the World Cup than the Six Nations. Gatland may frown at the leak from the gym, or at the maths of trying to fit Alex Cuthbert, George North, Liam Williams and Leigh Halfpenny into a starting back three, but settling on wings and a full-back is slightly less alarming than running a finger down the England baker’s dozen that will miss opening night on Friday.

There is comfort of sorts for Lancaster. If he is to be without the services – and this is just in the second row – of Courtney Lawes, Ed Slater, Geoff Parling and Joe Launchbury, he can still name a pairing of George Kruis and Dave Attwood, and put Graham Kitchener on the bench. Even if he has lost Brad Barritt, Kyle Eastmond, Manu Tuilagi and possibly (through concussion) Luther Burrell in the centre, he can still select Billy Twelvetrees and Jonathan Joseph before he has to take the risk of plunging Sam Burgess straight into the deafening swirl of Cardiff’s curtain-raiser.

England may not have progressed much further than the tinkering stage of replicating the invention and solidity of the New Zealand All Blacks’ Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu in midfield, but they have an enviable strength in depth. This begs a question. Is it England’s seemingly bottomless well of players of international quality that allows them to play game in, game out throughout the season in a manner that poses a serious threat to limb if not life? The clubs can insist on player A’s absolute commitment to the weekly cause, be it in the Aviva Premiership or the Champions Cup, because there’s always B and C and D waiting to replace him.

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Wales, with a fraction of the player base, have to manage their top performers and have at last found a formula that protects them. Much as the clubs of England and France wanted to see less cotton wool in the Pro12 – they succeeded in making qualification for Europe more exacting – the National Dual Contracts allow the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) to limit the number of games for signed-up players.

The WRU has found a way, that is, of telling France and England to mind their own business. Just as Wales would not presume to tell the Rugby Football Union how to run the affairs of England, so the WRU has fashioned – not without years of wrangling and dispute – its own template. And if that includes having not a single team in the knockout rounds of the Champions Cup (against England’s four) but providing the coach of the national team with a squad ready to a man for action in the Six Nations, then so be it.

The annual competition is enriched by such contrasts in approach and style. It is a healthy cultural divide. The distance between Twickenham and Cardiff is the shortest in the competition; Wales and England are the furthest apart in how the game might be played. And their clash on day one launches this grandest of rugby years with a bang. Containing the explosion is all part of the fun.

Above both England and Wales on current form are Ireland, the reigning champions and unbeaten in November against South Africa, Georgia and Australia. Their coach, Joe Schmidt, seems to have a Midas touch and their provincial structure, even if Leinster are the only quarter-finalists in the Champions Cup this year and the occasional rumble can be heard about recruiting restrictions on the four professional outfits, runs on a spirit of co-operation through keen rivalry.

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Whereas Wales and England have no chance of looking anywhere deeper into the year than this Friday, Ireland do run the risk of thinking ahead as much to their second game as their first. On the opening weekend they travel to Rome and however seriously they say they have to take the challenge of the Italians, there is a fair bit of space dedicated in Ireland to the return after that of their most influential strategists and their game-changers. The half-backs Jonny Sexton, obediently following concussion protocols, and Conor Murray, who has a disc problem in his neck, will be fit to face France. And, goes the musing, so will Sean O’Brien. Just how good would Ireland be then for the big one in Dublin in round two?

Is it not permissible for the team ranked third in the world to cast an eye beyond Italy? What difficulties in Rome away cannot be overcome by either Ian Madigan or Ian Keatley deputising for Sexton, and by Isaac Boss for Murray? Come on. There’s a gulf between the teams. Italy took much comfort from their 22-6 defeat to South Africa in November. Sergio Parisse’s boys were competitive for an hour, but were finally outclassed when fresh legs came off their opponents’ bench. Ireland were critical of themselves for not putting away South Africa more clinically. Even so, Schmidt will be wary of letting Irish eyes stray too far down the line.

France start at home, although Philippe Saint-André has already said that he wouldn’t be expecting too much from his team against Scotland, given the lack of time he has had with them, despite this weekend’s protection. He has added that France will be different at the end of the summer, going into the World Cup, because he will have had his squad for two and a half months.

When it comes to looking beyond the immediate present, France are a class apart. And yet the coach could be right. France could be wonderful at the World Cup. Three finals suggest that they know how to navigate – however mutinously – their way through the pool and all bar one of the knockout stages.

And he could be right about this being a sticky Six Nations. Scotland at home suddenly counts for far more than a languid warm-up for the French. This is going to be a full test against the most improved team in, well, the world. Vern Cotter has given Scotland a real cutting edge behind, with Stuart Hogg possibly – fingers crossed for his personal safety after such a tip – the player of the tournament.

And extra bite up front. That would be a more collective effort, a throwback to the days of pace and aggression at the breakdown. Scotland have three home games. Win those and beat France away and they would wrap the first part of rugby’s great year in a rich tartan quilt.