Guardian Live: Syria four years on

http://www.theguardian.com/membership/2015/mar/13/guardian-live-syria-four-years-on

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The panel comprised:

The sold-out event took place at the Guardian offices on 12 March. So what did we learn?

There are three types of Syrian oppositionists

The Syrian conflict is not defined by a single state or energy. This pluralism is born out in the many different groups involved in the uprising. Malik Al-Abdeh broke it down to three different types of “oppositionists”.

First, there are the blue-collar oppositionists. These are people from a rural or poor urban background who are motivated by their own economic gain. “They want to move up the social ladder,” Al-Abdeh said. Since the conflict began in 2012, their power has weakened because they’ve run out of resources – people are now less willing to fund them.

Second, there are the white collar oppositionists. They hail from Istanbul, Cairo, Turkey and represent the foreign arm of the Syrian opposition movement. “They are no longer taken seriously on the world stage,” said Al-Abdeh, “because they look like they’ve just run out of steam.”

Third, are the Islamists. They use Islam ideology to justify their actions and have become more dominant as the conflict has escalated. This is partly due to funding but also because, according to Al-Abdeh, “their narrative of ‘the West doesn’t care about us’ makes more sense to the average person than that of the more moderate oppositionists”.

2013 was a turning point

Martin Chulov, who has covered the Syrian conflict from the beginning, said 2013 was a turning point. “Control collapsed from the armed forces and we could see the inevitable creep of the foreign jihadists,” he said. It was April 2013 when Islamic State announced it was taking over al-Nusra, it was then that Chulov realised that what was happening was a “worst-case scenario being eclipsed by reality”.

The economic cost is huge

Rim Turkmani said that the cost of the crisis on the Syrian economy is a massive “$150m a day” and the trickle down on everyday people is brutal. “People are starving – even farming their very fertile land is not profitable,” she said. Turkmani added that war economics have taken over and extremism is seen as a career move, stating that a major incentive for joining Isis was the financial one. “People only join Isis for the $400 a month,” she said.

“Isis will be here in a decade”

Shiraz Maher said that Isis would not be defeated by military means. “It’s not working,” he said, adding that all it was doing was slowing down the expansion of Islamic State. “Death is celebrated so men are expendable to them,” he added. Maher said that Isis couldn’t be bombed out of existence because of its disparate members, speculating: “I don’t think Islamic State will crumble within a year, I think Isis will be here in a decade.”

It’s about the real Syrian people not Isis

Maher talked about the importance of taking the focus away from Isis and concentrating on the Syrian people. “Assad has turned the dominant narrative into: ‘It’s me or those crazies from Islamic State,’” he said. This propaganda-led binary narrative has taken the focus away from the Syrian people. “The Syrian people are the ultimate losers: the regime doesn’t care about their suffering or pain.” They are displaced and living terrible lives, “so what can we do in the west? Popularise the narrative of the real Syrian people,” he said.

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The Syrian nation doesn’t exist

Malik Al-Abdeh said “the Syrian nation” never existed in the first place and was a construct of French and British making. When various different displaced people found themselves living together, the only unifier was secular Arab nationalism, which stated that everyone was an Arab Syrian.

Al-Abdeh said that Syria should have been more like Lebanon. “In the sense that you had freedom, you were allowed to express your sectarian identity and people get on in a democracy.” Instead the country was kept in what he described as “a straitjacket”. Looking forward, Al-Abdeh said that he could see the country reverting back to its 19th-century model where it is more regionally governed and where “local identities are more important than national ones”.

Don’t forget about the refugees

Ghayth Armanazi said that Syrian refugees can’t wait to go back to Syria. “They are waiting for the first opportunity for some sort of peace, stability and security to be restored,” he said. Armanazi pointed out that their “life is hell” whether they are in Lebanon, Jordan or Turkey. Turkmani added that “people [just] want to go back to their homes”, noting that 8,000 refugees leave Syria every day.

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