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These are the nightmare scenarios for each of Britain’s political parties These are the nightmare scenarios for each of Britain’s political parties
(4 months later)
Taking into account what we know about the election, what are the worst things that could possibly happen for each of Britain's political parties?Taking into account what we know about the election, what are the worst things that could possibly happen for each of Britain's political parties?
A Labour majority is very unlikely, but mathematically the stars could align and grant one. This would make the last few months’ discussion about hung parliaments totally irrelevant.A Labour majority is very unlikely, but mathematically the stars could align and grant one. This would make the last few months’ discussion about hung parliaments totally irrelevant.
Two things would probably have to happen for Labour to win outright: unionist voters in Scotland would have to unite behind Labour, and Labour would have to outperform its national vote share in marginal seats.Two things would probably have to happen for Labour to win outright: unionist voters in Scotland would have to unite behind Labour, and Labour would have to outperform its national vote share in marginal seats.
There has been some evidence from Scottish surveys that Conservatives are starting to consider voting Labour in their local constituencies where they believe they can stop the SNP. If this happened across Scotland it could give Ed Miliband’s party a shot in the arm.There has been some evidence from Scottish surveys that Conservatives are starting to consider voting Labour in their local constituencies where they believe they can stop the SNP. If this happened across Scotland it could give Ed Miliband’s party a shot in the arm.
Polling of marginal seats has also shown Labour doing in them than the party does in the rest of the country: the question is how much better they’ll do on the night.Polling of marginal seats has also shown Labour doing in them than the party does in the rest of the country: the question is how much better they’ll do on the night.
At the last London mayoral election the polls all dramatically understated Labour. If they’re out by even as half as much this time a Labour majority could be the result.At the last London mayoral election the polls all dramatically understated Labour. If they’re out by even as half as much this time a Labour majority could be the result.
A strange, consistent divide has opened up in the polls, noticed only by election geeks: pollsters that use telephones to do their interviews have been showing Conservative leads, while firms that work online haven’t.A strange, consistent divide has opened up in the polls, noticed only by election geeks: pollsters that use telephones to do their interviews have been showing Conservative leads, while firms that work online haven’t.
Who is right? The answer could be somewhere between the two, or online pollsters could be right and phone pollsters could be wrong. The whole thing could even just be a weird coincidence.Who is right? The answer could be somewhere between the two, or online pollsters could be right and phone pollsters could be wrong. The whole thing could even just be a weird coincidence.
But if phone pollsters are exclusively right then Labour could end up with significantly fewer seats than it was expecting. Enough to give the Conservatives and the Lib Dems a majority together? It’s unlikely, but if it happened, Ed Miliband would be locked out of Downing Street.But if phone pollsters are exclusively right then Labour could end up with significantly fewer seats than it was expecting. Enough to give the Conservatives and the Lib Dems a majority together? It’s unlikely, but if it happened, Ed Miliband would be locked out of Downing Street.
Nick Clegg is not certain to keep his seat in Sheffield Hallam, with conflicting polls suggesting the battle could go either way. Other polls have suggested that Danny Alexander, the liberals’ man in the Treasury, could be a goner as well.Nick Clegg is not certain to keep his seat in Sheffield Hallam, with conflicting polls suggesting the battle could go either way. Other polls have suggested that Danny Alexander, the liberals’ man in the Treasury, could be a goner as well.
The Lib Dems’ main source of influence after the election comes in coalition negotiations and the untimely decapitation of their leadership would make it more difficult to get a look in – and also be humiliating.The Lib Dems’ main source of influence after the election comes in coalition negotiations and the untimely decapitation of their leadership would make it more difficult to get a look in – and also be humiliating.
More widely, the party will be hoping that predictions that individual local Lib Dem MPs could be tougher to unseat than they look are right. If they’re wrong the election would be a complete rout.More widely, the party will be hoping that predictions that individual local Lib Dem MPs could be tougher to unseat than they look are right. If they’re wrong the election would be a complete rout.
There are a handful of seats in the country where Ukip is competitive. Realistically, Douglas Carswell is not going to lose his seat in Clacton, but fellow Tory defector Mark Reckless is less certain.There are a handful of seats in the country where Ukip is competitive. Realistically, Douglas Carswell is not going to lose his seat in Clacton, but fellow Tory defector Mark Reckless is less certain.
The party has poured resources into places like Thurrock and Thanet South and will be incredibly disappointed if it is left with fewer MPs than it currently has.The party has poured resources into places like Thurrock and Thanet South and will be incredibly disappointed if it is left with fewer MPs than it currently has.
Salt would be added to the wound for the eurosceptics if their national vote share was squeezed below 10%. A strong showing nationally could help the party push for electoral reform, but a single-digit score would make it more difficult to justify.Salt would be added to the wound for the eurosceptics if their national vote share was squeezed below 10%. A strong showing nationally could help the party push for electoral reform, but a single-digit score would make it more difficult to justify.
It seems very unlikely that the SNP won’t do well on Thursday, but they’ve not done a very good job of managing expectations in case something goes wrong.It seems very unlikely that the SNP won’t do well on Thursday, but they’ve not done a very good job of managing expectations in case something goes wrong.
Nicola Sturgeon even mentioned her party winning “every seat in Scotland” at the last Scottish leaders’ debate (though she stressed it was not a prediction).Nicola Sturgeon even mentioned her party winning “every seat in Scotland” at the last Scottish leaders’ debate (though she stressed it was not a prediction).
Indeed, eye-catching nationwide predictions show the SNP could indeed win every seat.Indeed, eye-catching nationwide predictions show the SNP could indeed win every seat.
The problem for the party would come if unionist voters banded together behind common candidates and beat the SNP in enough local battles to produce a result that pales in comparison compared to these grand predictions.The problem for the party would come if unionist voters banded together behind common candidates and beat the SNP in enough local battles to produce a result that pales in comparison compared to these grand predictions.
How many seats the party would have to lose to disappoint them would likely depend on how well spinners did their work after the voters are counted. #How many seats the party would have to lose to disappoint them would likely depend on how well spinners did their work after the voters are counted. #
The Greens aren’t expected to pick up any more MPs on Thursday, but they’re fighting hard for their only MP and former leader Caroline Lucas to keep her seat in Brighton. Green MP Caroline Lucas is arrested near Balcombe during the anti-fracking protests The Greens aren’t expected to pick up any more MPs on Thursday, but they’re fighting hard for their only MP and former leader Caroline Lucas to keep her seat in Brighton.
Losing their only MP would be terrible from the party, which has benefited from more exposure during this parliament partly thanks to her efforts.Losing their only MP would be terrible from the party, which has benefited from more exposure during this parliament partly thanks to her efforts.
Stalled progress in other targets like Bristol West and Norwich South would also leave the party feeling like they’d got nothing out of their surge.Stalled progress in other targets like Bristol West and Norwich South would also leave the party feeling like they’d got nothing out of their surge.