There is no such thing as the black vote – this election proves it

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/26/black-vote-election-ethnic-minority-non-white

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In the run-up to the general election, there were numerous campaigns and voices trying to mobilise the “black vote”. These calls were predicated on the idea that ethnic minority voters could hold the key to the election result. A study by Operation Black Vote argued that demographic changes would mean that the ethnic minority vote could swing the balance of power in over 100 seats, and therefore, if this vote was mobilised, politicians would have to engage with a more diverse set of voters and their concerns in order to win. Comparisons to the US were made; across the Atlantic, a demographic shift is causing significant issues for the Republican party, who struggle to appeal to ethnic minorities.

But when the 2015 general election result came through, it showed something quite different to what had been expected: that it is time to move beyond the myth of the power of the black vote.

Asian groups were almost twice as likely to vote for the Conservatives as black (African and Caribbean) communities

In the general election, 52% of ethnic minority voters went with Labour and the party increased its share of the vote in the most diverse constituencies. Despite this, the party suffered its worst general election defeat in a generation. The reality of the UK demography is that the largest proportion of the ethnic minority population live in major cities, and therefore they tend to vote in Labour strongholds. Labour lost the election in two key regions: Scotland and “middle England”, where the ethnic minority vote is negligible at best. There has been some shift of minorities out of the areas where they have traditionally lived, but nowhere near enough to make any difference in these key areas. In the key seats that gave the Conservatives power – places such as Telford, Warwickshire North and Bolton West – the reality is that there simply is no significant ethnic minority vote that can be mobilised.

The electoral system works in such a way that those who live in the key marginals wield the political power, and we are already seeing the Labour party shift further to the right to appeal to the “industrial heartlands”. Messages of equality are being abandoned, while the party is further embracing reactionary, anti-immigration rhetoric. The Tories are in power and Labour is shifting to the right, and the black vote won’t change that. As a route to influencing policymakers, the election uncovered the lack of power in the black vote.

There is a more significant problem with the idea of the black vote, and that is that the premise itself is a fallacy. It assumes that there is a block of votes of ethnic minorities that can be unified to impact an election result; a contention that is not supported by any evidence. Policymakers and politicians usually embrace this “political blackness” when addressing ethnic minority communities, but it makes as little sense when it comes to predicting voting as it does in other areas of life. Britain is home to one of the most diverse range of communities in Europe; people who have an array of backgrounds, histories and successes in this country. It is absurd to think that simply because they are not white, this multitude of people will unite in a common political project.

Recent research by British Future showing that a million ethnic minorities voted for the Conservatives is evidence of the stark intra-ethnic differences between groups. For instance, Asian groups were almost twice as likely to vote for the Conservatives as black (African and Caribbean) communities. Break that down further and you find that Muslims voted overwhelmingly (64%) for Labour, while more Sikhs and Hindus voted Conservative than Labour.

These figures should come as no surprise; people from Indian backgrounds have in general terms had success in Britain, with high educational outcomes, low unemployment and relatively high average incomes. They are economically more similar to the average Tory voter, than those in black, Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. The rise of Ukip has further shown the fissures in ethnic minority communities, with the party more appealing to those minority groups who are more “accepted” in society and less so to those demonised as a result of immigration fears. There is more discord than consensus in the ethnic minority vote, and to pretend otherwise is to miss the point.

It is time for an honest discussion about the role and limits of electoral politics for ethnic minority communities in Britain. If the aim is to get politicians and policy makers to listen to a more diverse range of voices, then the hollow power of the “black vote” is no way to achieve that end. Voting is only one way to engage in politics, and can often be the most passive. To empower marginalised communities we need to reconnect with political mobilisations at the grassroots level, which can truly give voice to the unheard.