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| Myanmar's 2015 general elections explained | Myanmar's 2015 general elections explained |
| (21 days later) | |
| Myanmar holds general elections on 8 November - the country's first elections since a nominally civilian government was introduced in 2011, ending nearly 50 years of military rule. There is widespread speculation about who will be the next president - and how well the opposition National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, will fare. The BBC's Jonah Fisher in Yangon explains the key issues. | |
| Will the vote be democratic? | Will the vote be democratic? |
| That's the idea. But everyone accepts that there will be some pretty serious flaws. The realistic goal for many observers is that it will be "reasonably free and fair" and that the result reflects the will of the people. Given what has gone before that would still be significant progress. | That's the idea. But everyone accepts that there will be some pretty serious flaws. The realistic goal for many observers is that it will be "reasonably free and fair" and that the result reflects the will of the people. Given what has gone before that would still be significant progress. |
| Things have not got off to smooth start. In the run up to the election campaign voter lists were published, and they have been shown to be woefully inadequate. Dead people have been listed, and many of those alive not included. | Things have not got off to smooth start. In the run up to the election campaign voter lists were published, and they have been shown to be woefully inadequate. Dead people have been listed, and many of those alive not included. |
| Not all the seats in the Hluttaw (parliament) are up for grabs. The military drafted constitution guarantees that unelected military representatives will take up 25% of the seats in the Hluttaw and have a veto over constitutional change. This is what the generals call "disciplined democracy". | Not all the seats in the Hluttaw (parliament) are up for grabs. The military drafted constitution guarantees that unelected military representatives will take up 25% of the seats in the Hluttaw and have a veto over constitutional change. This is what the generals call "disciplined democracy". |
| How popular is Aung San Suu Kyi's party? | How popular is Aung San Suu Kyi's party? |
| It's hard to say. There are no reliable opinion polls so the only precedents are the two previous occasions that the National League for Democracy's popularity has been put to the test: the annulled 1990 general election and the by-elections of 2012. | It's hard to say. There are no reliable opinion polls so the only precedents are the two previous occasions that the National League for Democracy's popularity has been put to the test: the annulled 1990 general election and the by-elections of 2012. |
| In 1990 the National League for Democracy won 392 of the 492 available seats, taking 52.5% of the national vote. | In 1990 the National League for Democracy won 392 of the 492 available seats, taking 52.5% of the national vote. |
| Fast forward 22 years and the NLD claimed 43 of the 45 seats on offer, accruing about 66% of the available votes. | Fast forward 22 years and the NLD claimed 43 of the 45 seats on offer, accruing about 66% of the available votes. |
| That increase in 2012 doesn't necessarily mean support for the NLD has risen. | That increase in 2012 doesn't necessarily mean support for the NLD has risen. |
| The geographic spread of seats contested in the 2012 by-elections suited the NLD because they were mainly in ethnic Bamar areas. | The geographic spread of seats contested in the 2012 by-elections suited the NLD because they were mainly in ethnic Bamar areas. |
| Though human rights groups have become disillusioned with Ms Suu Kyi over her refusal to get drawn into the Rohingya issue, that's unlikely to have much impact with the electorate. So there's no reason to believe her support will have fallen from 2012 levels. | Though human rights groups have become disillusioned with Ms Suu Kyi over her refusal to get drawn into the Rohingya issue, that's unlikely to have much impact with the electorate. So there's no reason to believe her support will have fallen from 2012 levels. |
| Is a landslide likely? | Is a landslide likely? |
| It's possible. First-past-the-post (constituency based) electoral systems like Myanmar's make landslides more likely. | It's possible. First-past-the-post (constituency based) electoral systems like Myanmar's make landslides more likely. |
| Take a look at 1990. The NLD won just over half of the popular vote which translated into nearly 80% of the seats. | Take a look at 1990. The NLD won just over half of the popular vote which translated into nearly 80% of the seats. |
| This year's vote has two distinct battlegrounds: in central and southern areas where there is an ethnic Bamar majority, and in the regions along the country's borders, where smaller ethnic groups have localised dominance. | This year's vote has two distinct battlegrounds: in central and southern areas where there is an ethnic Bamar majority, and in the regions along the country's borders, where smaller ethnic groups have localised dominance. |
| In the seven central and southern regions where the Bamar dominate, the NLD are set for a large win. Up for grabs are 291 seats, or 44% of the entire Hluttaw (parliament), and it's possible that the current ruling party the USDP will only win a handful. | In the seven central and southern regions where the Bamar dominate, the NLD are set for a large win. Up for grabs are 291 seats, or 44% of the entire Hluttaw (parliament), and it's possible that the current ruling party the USDP will only win a handful. |
| But that won't give the NLD an overall majority. | But that won't give the NLD an overall majority. |
| So the key battleground for the campaign is going to be in the minority ethnic states where 207 seats (31%) should, stability permitting, be contested. | So the key battleground for the campaign is going to be in the minority ethnic states where 207 seats (31%) should, stability permitting, be contested. |
| Parties based along ethnic lines are likely to win most of the seats but even small gains made by the NLD here could pave the way for an overall majority. | Parties based along ethnic lines are likely to win most of the seats but even small gains made by the NLD here could pave the way for an overall majority. |
| In the last year Aung San Suu Kyi has travelled frequently to these areas, acutely aware of how important they could prove. | In the last year Aung San Suu Kyi has travelled frequently to these areas, acutely aware of how important they could prove. |
| One unknown is the impact of a hardline Buddhist movement, the Ma Ba Tha, in Bamar areas. For the last 18 months it has been running a nationalist campaign arguing that the country's Buddhist identity is under threat from Islam, and that the NLD is the party of the Muslims. | One unknown is the impact of a hardline Buddhist movement, the Ma Ba Tha, in Bamar areas. For the last 18 months it has been running a nationalist campaign arguing that the country's Buddhist identity is under threat from Islam, and that the NLD is the party of the Muslims. |
| The monks have drawn large crowds, but this will be the first test of how deeply their message has resonated. | The monks have drawn large crowds, but this will be the first test of how deeply their message has resonated. |
| How is the president chosen? | How is the president chosen? |
| Indirectly. The 2008 constitution sets out a complex process whereby the Hluttaw (parliament) chooses a president. Though the general election is in November it's likely to be March 2016 before this takes place. | Indirectly. The 2008 constitution sets out a complex process whereby the Hluttaw (parliament) chooses a president. Though the general election is in November it's likely to be March 2016 before this takes place. |
| Firstly the Hluttaw will divide into three groups: the elected representatives of the Lower House, the elected representatives of the Upper House, and the unelected army representatives. | Firstly the Hluttaw will divide into three groups: the elected representatives of the Lower House, the elected representatives of the Upper House, and the unelected army representatives. |
| Each group puts forward a candidate and then the three of them face a vote in a joint session, that includes all the elected and unelected representatives of both Houses. | Each group puts forward a candidate and then the three of them face a vote in a joint session, that includes all the elected and unelected representatives of both Houses. |
| The winner becomes president and the two losers vice-presidents. | The winner becomes president and the two losers vice-presidents. |
| What it means in practice is if the NLD want to be able to choose the next president they need their candidate to get the most votes in this joint session. | What it means in practice is if the NLD want to be able to choose the next president they need their candidate to get the most votes in this joint session. |
| Could Aung San Suu Kyi become president? | Could Aung San Suu Kyi become president? |
| Aung San Suu Kyi may well lead her party to a landslide win but she can't become president. Article 59F of the constitution states that if one of your "legitimate children… owes allegiance to a foreign power" you are disqualified. That covers both Ms Suu Kyi's sons Kim and Alexander, who have British passports. | Aung San Suu Kyi may well lead her party to a landslide win but she can't become president. Article 59F of the constitution states that if one of your "legitimate children… owes allegiance to a foreign power" you are disqualified. That covers both Ms Suu Kyi's sons Kim and Alexander, who have British passports. |
| A crushing win in the election won't help either, as the unelected army representatives can still block attempts to change this clause. So barring a spectacular change of military heart, it won't be President Suu Kyi in 2016. | A crushing win in the election won't help either, as the unelected army representatives can still block attempts to change this clause. So barring a spectacular change of military heart, it won't be President Suu Kyi in 2016. |
| If not President Suu Kyi then who? | If not President Suu Kyi then who? |
| This is where the rumour mill goes into overdrive. | This is where the rumour mill goes into overdrive. |
| It was long assumed that an agreement was in place between Aung San Suu Kyi and the Speaker of the Hluttaw U Shwe Mann. | It was long assumed that an agreement was in place between Aung San Suu Kyi and the Speaker of the Hluttaw U Shwe Mann. |
| It would have been a grand deal bridging the divide between the military and Ms Suu Kyi. She would back him - in return for promises of constitutional change. | It would have been a grand deal bridging the divide between the military and Ms Suu Kyi. She would back him - in return for promises of constitutional change. |
| But Shwe Mann miscalculated and lost the support of the army. In August he was deposed from his position as the head of the ruling USDP in what was called a "soft coup". | But Shwe Mann miscalculated and lost the support of the army. In August he was deposed from his position as the head of the ruling USDP in what was called a "soft coup". |
| Without military backing he's no longer such an attractive choice for Ms Suu Kyi. | Without military backing he's no longer such an attractive choice for Ms Suu Kyi. |
| So who then? | So who then? |
| In an interview with Indian TV in early October, Ms Suu Kyi said that in the event of the NLD winning a majority she had a "civilian" candidate in mind for the top job. | In an interview with Indian TV in early October, Ms Suu Kyi said that in the event of the NLD winning a majority she had a "civilian" candidate in mind for the top job. |
| In the same breath she stressed that she would still lead the government from parliament, effectively rendering the president a weak puppet. | In the same breath she stressed that she would still lead the government from parliament, effectively rendering the president a weak puppet. |
| A few possibilities have been mooted for that rather neutered job, but Ms Suu Kyi is keeping her cards close to her chest. | A few possibilities have been mooted for that rather neutered job, but Ms Suu Kyi is keeping her cards close to her chest. |
| One possibility is Tin Oo, a former commander-in-chief of the Burmese army and a founding member of the NLD. | One possibility is Tin Oo, a former commander-in-chief of the Burmese army and a founding member of the NLD. |
| He's 88 and sharp for his age but would be a strange choice. In his favour is decades of loyalty to Ms Suu Kyi, a quality she prizes highly. | He's 88 and sharp for his age but would be a strange choice. In his favour is decades of loyalty to Ms Suu Kyi, a quality she prizes highly. |
| Another name that has been mentioned is Win Htein, a former military officer and close confidant of Ms Suu Kyi. | Another name that has been mentioned is Win Htein, a former military officer and close confidant of Ms Suu Kyi. |
| A relative youngster at 74, he's risked the scorn of hardline monks by speaking in defence of Muslims in his constituency of Meiktila. But his health is not thought to be good. | A relative youngster at 74, he's risked the scorn of hardline monks by speaking in defence of Muslims in his constituency of Meiktila. But his health is not thought to be good. |
| There are also rumours circulating that a deal has already been done: that Ms Suu Kyi was pre-warned of Shwe Mann's demise, and a proposal put to her. | There are also rumours circulating that a deal has already been done: that Ms Suu Kyi was pre-warned of Shwe Mann's demise, and a proposal put to her. |
| That arrangement would see her back Thein Sein for perhaps another two years, with the promise that he would bring in constitutional changes. | That arrangement would see her back Thein Sein for perhaps another two years, with the promise that he would bring in constitutional changes. |
| Their relationship has deteriorated significantly since he persuaded her to run for parliament in 2012, so it is open to question whether she would trust him again. | Their relationship has deteriorated significantly since he persuaded her to run for parliament in 2012, so it is open to question whether she would trust him again. |
| Of course it may not end up in the NLD's hands. With a quarter of seats occupied by the army, an anti-NLD coalition only needs a third of the elected seats to control the destiny of the presidency. | Of course it may not end up in the NLD's hands. With a quarter of seats occupied by the army, an anti-NLD coalition only needs a third of the elected seats to control the destiny of the presidency. |
| If that was to happen the most likely "army candidate" would be the current President Thein Sein. His face is on the front of the USDP campaign buses and all the signs are that he does fancy another term. | If that was to happen the most likely "army candidate" would be the current President Thein Sein. His face is on the front of the USDP campaign buses and all the signs are that he does fancy another term. |
| One rumour is that Thein Sein might be chosen as President before retiring within a year or two due to ill-health, to allow the current Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing to take over. | One rumour is that Thein Sein might be chosen as President before retiring within a year or two due to ill-health, to allow the current Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing to take over. |
| On 8 November the voters will have their say, but the choice of president will be a backroom deal. | On 8 November the voters will have their say, but the choice of president will be a backroom deal. |
| Just how powerful is the president? | Just how powerful is the president? |
| Not as powerful as you might think. | Not as powerful as you might think. |
| Key security ministries (defence, home affairs and border affairs) are selected by the head of the army, not the president, and there can be no change to the constitution without military approval. | Key security ministries (defence, home affairs and border affairs) are selected by the head of the army, not the president, and there can be no change to the constitution without military approval. |
| One of the themes of the last five years has been the emergence of the Hluttaw as an important political force. | One of the themes of the last five years has been the emergence of the Hluttaw as an important political force. |
| It will become more vocal and assertive after this election and has the power to push through legislation against the president's wishes if it wants. | It will become more vocal and assertive after this election and has the power to push through legislation against the president's wishes if it wants. |