Bring on the debate: the faces hoping to star in the Republican TV showdown

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/02/republican-party-us-presidential-candidates-debate

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DONALD TRUMP

Reality-TV show star and hotel magnate

He has upended the 2016 race and become the centre of attention on the Republican side. While he is highly unlikely to win – and has no support among the party establishment – his attacks on illegal immigrants and his barbed comments about his fellow Republicans have both moved him to the head of the pack in a crowded field and further diminished the party’s already poor public image.

JEB BUSH

Former governor of Florida

On the surface, Bush should be considered the presidential frontrunner: he has strong establishment support, a war chest of more than $100m, no other strong candidate and, unlike his rivals, he at least “looks” like a potential president. But Bush also has among the highest unfavourable ratings of any candidate (47%), many conservatives mistrust him, and he makes too many gaffes for a man considered a serious contender for president. Above all, there is his last name – and its association with his brother, the former president. There’s no question it will be an albatross should he win the nomination.

SCOTT WALKER

Governor of Wisconsin

Walker is generally placed in the top tier of Republican presidential candidates. He is polling well in Iowa, the first caucus state, and he brings to the table a party-friendly combination of economic and social conservatism. Last month he called the minimum wage “lame” and in his home state of Wisconsin recently signed a bill making abortion illegal after 20 weeks, even in cases of rape or incest. Perhaps his biggest claim to fame came in 2011, when he pushed through legislation that stripped public-sector unions of collective bargaining rights. He then won a recall election launched by Democrats angered by the move.

MIKE HUCKABEE

Former governor of Arkansas

He brings to the nomination race the aw-shucks, populist demeanour of a southern preacher. His suggestion that Barack Obama is marching Israel towards another Holocaust was awful, but it’s par for the course for Huckabee, who in his presidential announcement speech compared Washington to a “roach motel” and in more recent weeks openly mocked Caitlin Jenner and other transgender Americans. Huckabee, however, has strong support among social conservatives who make up a large segment of the Republican electorate in Iowa. He is unlikely to win, but might stick around the race for a while.

BEN CARSON

Former neurosurgeon

He stumbled into politics after delivering an anti-Obama diatribe at the national prayer breakfast while the president sat only a few feet away. This, of course, made conservatives swoon. Carson, who is the only African-American running for president, takes a backseat to no Republican in his bombastic pronouncements. He has compared America under Obama to Nazi Germany; he called Obamacare the “worst thing to happen to America since slavery”; and he has suggested that homosexuality is a choice because “a lot of people who go into prison go into prison straight, and when they come out they’re gay”.

RAND PAUL

Kentucky senator

He is the iconoclast of the field, which means that he takes slightly less hawkish views on foreign policy and makes an effort to win over minority voters. On everything else, from government spending and tax policy to abortion policy and vaccinations (he has expressed scepticism about them being required), he is as radical as any other Republican. Buffeted by fundraising woes, low staff morale and an undisciplined candidate with a propensity for verbal gaffes, Paul’s candidacy is already being talked about in the past tense. The debate is a crucial opportunity for him to turn things around and impress.

TED CRUZ

Texas senator

Ted Cruz is a bit like Donald Trump but with (slightly) better hair and less charm. He is bombastic, the party establishment hates him, and he says awful things about Obama. Like everyone else in the race, Trump’s rise has overshadowed him – hence his efforts to stir up a fight with Mitch McConnell in the Senate. The one potential opportunity for Cruz is that, if Trump begins to implode, it is not hard to imagine that some of his support would come Cruz’s way. Indeed, it is interesting to note that Cruz has been one of the few Republicans who has not attacked Trump.

MARCO RUBIO

Florida senator

At one point Rubio seemed to many like a top-tier candidate and someone who, because of his age and immigrant background, might have the best chance against the most likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, in a presidential election. Then Trump happened and Rubio is still mired in single digits in the polls. The Iran nuclear debate was supposed to play to his strengths on foreign policy, but with every Republican in the race trying to outdo the other in depicting the deal as the worst thing to happen to US foreign policy since Pearl Harbor he is not getting much traction. However, he has potential and his fundraising has been impressive.

FINAL SLOTS

Two from three

For the last two spots at the debate the race seems to be between two current governors (Chris Christie and John Kasich) and one former governor (Rick Perry). All have fairly glaring flaws. New Jersey’s Christie has the lowest favourability rating of any candidate except Trump - a product of his in-your-face demeanor – and faces possible indictment over his involvement inthe so-called Bridgegate scandal. Kasich is a somewhat boring, technocratic Ohio governor who in a different year might attract some interest. But in his home state he pushed for expanding Medicaid, which is an integral element of Obamacare. That alone could disqualify him in GOP eyes. Rick Perry, bless his heart. After hisinfamous “oops” gaffe in a 2012 TV debate he tried to convince people he wasn’t as dim-witted as he seemed by getting glasses and adopting a more serious, less confrontational demeanour. There’s little evidence that this strategy is working.

LATE TO THE PARTY

Other potential runners

Six other announced candidates are in the running, but at this point look unlikely to make the cut. Barring a late polling surge, former New York governor George Pataki, 2012 runner-up Rick Santorum, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham, Louisiana senator Bobby Jindal and the newest entrant, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, will participate in a pre-debate discussion before the main event.