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NHS in Wales 'facing £2.5bn funding crisis' says research NHS in Wales 'facing £2.5bn funding gap' says research
(35 minutes later)
The NHS in Wales is facing a £2.5bn funding gap in the next 10 years, according to new research.The NHS in Wales is facing a £2.5bn funding gap in the next 10 years, according to new research.
The Nuffield Trust has predicted demand on the NHS will outstrip the money it receives by 2025.The Nuffield Trust has predicted demand on the NHS will outstrip the money it receives by 2025.
It would be the equivalent to more than 43% (two-fifths) of its current budget.It would be the equivalent to more than 43% (two-fifths) of its current budget.
The analysis, commissioned by the Welsh government, assumes NHS spending rises in line with inflation and also forecasts the challenges facing the service in the short term. Health Minister Mark Drakeford said the report, commissioned by the Welsh government, recognised long-term savings could be made if services continue to be reformed.
The analysis assumes NHS spending rises in line with inflation and also forecasts the challenges facing the service in the short term.
But since the last assembly election, the NHS budget has actually been cut by around 0.5% a year.But since the last assembly election, the NHS budget has actually been cut by around 0.5% a year.
And the study said that health spending would be 3.6% less in 2015-16 than it was in 2010-11.And the study said that health spending would be 3.6% less in 2015-16 than it was in 2010-11.
The report also added that if there was a tighter squeeze than expected on spending, the shortfall could be significantly larger.The report also added that if there was a tighter squeeze than expected on spending, the shortfall could be significantly larger.
Best-case scenarioBest-case scenario
Researchers said the best-case scenario the NHS could hope for would be a £1.1bn funding gap, but that would only happen if the service's budget was to rise 2% - which is in line with national income instead of inflation.Researchers said the best-case scenario the NHS could hope for would be a £1.1bn funding gap, but that would only happen if the service's budget was to rise 2% - which is in line with national income instead of inflation.
In the short term, the Nuffield Trust said the NHS faced a challenging funding gap of £0.2bn in the next two years.In the short term, the Nuffield Trust said the NHS faced a challenging funding gap of £0.2bn in the next two years.
In conclusion, the research suggested demands on the NHS, in financial terms, would grow by around 3.3% a year.In conclusion, the research suggested demands on the NHS, in financial terms, would grow by around 3.3% a year.
Pressures facing the NHS in Wales include:Pressures facing the NHS in Wales include:
The prediction is likely to inflame the debate whether the NHS could survive without reform.The prediction is likely to inflame the debate whether the NHS could survive without reform.
Mr Drakeford admitted the service faced challenges.
"The report also recognises further potential for additional long-term savings, which the NHS can make if it continues to reform and reshape services," he added.
"This includes concentrating highly-specialised services while providing more care in communities closer to patients' homes, preventing people from being admitted to hospital for routine treatments, building on the flexible three-year financial and planning regime we have introduced this year, and pursuing a prudent healthcare agenda."