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Tony Abbott faces worsening polls and same-sex marriage bill – parliament live Tony Abbott faces worsening polls and same-sex marriage bill – parliament live
(35 minutes later)
8.54am AEST23:54
The same sex marriage bill will come into the house at 10am as soon as it sits. The plebiscite/referendum will be discussed in cabinet though we are still trying to confirm whether a definite proposal will be put.
8.51am AEST23:51
Now back to George Brandis, he of the striped jumper. He was on Sky at the weekend, bollocking “vigilante” environmentalists such as those who challenged the federal government’s Adani Carmichael coalmine. Brandis told Sky the “people who challenged this are people who are ­determined to wipe out Queensland’s biggest industry, the coal industry’’.
I think the Adani case has shown why it’s very important that the courts not be used as a forum for vigilante litigation by people whose aim is to game the system, who have no legitimate interest other than to prosecute a political vendetta against development and bring massive developments, on which in this case some 2600 jobs depended, to a standstill.
He wants changes to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act to stop game playing.
And no government can stand in the way — can sit idly by and let people do that.
8.37am AEST23:37
Laura Tingle has written a short but scathing analysis to go with the Ipsos polling. She says the nervousness in the Coalition ranks stems from the increasing standing of Bill Shorten, who was long considered unelectable by the government. The Coalition has had a kind of “she’ll be right” attitude because no one would ever vote for Bill. At this point in the cycle, Shorten leads as preferred prime minster 45 to 39.
Here is Laura:
Maybe things have got so bad that voters have actually started to reassess Labor and its leader.
Royal commission aside, Labor has begun to construct more of a persona for itself than it previously had. Its push to put renewable energy at the centre of its climate-change strategy, to resolve asylum seeker policy and to (miraculously) end up on the right side of the same-sex marriage debate give it more room to talk than it has had for months.
At the same time, the Prime Minister has been painting himself into a corner. He has closed down so many debates on the first-order issues that matter to voters around the economy and jobs – and now has so little room for manoeuvre that it is difficult to see how he extracts himself.
The Coalition party room choked at the idea of removing a first term prime minister in February because they did not want to repeat Labor’s mistakes. MPs have believed that voters would not thank them for that uncertainty.
But that was before things became wild and erratic even without a change of leader.
Tingle loops back to more recent history, when the state of a government (Labor) led the public to consider a formerly unelectable leader. The prime minister. Our Tony.
8.25am AEST23:258.25am AEST23:25
Warren Entsch has already acknowledged his bill has Buckley’s and none. He told ABC he would vote for his bill - which would necessitate crossing the floor but it will not come to that.Warren Entsch has already acknowledged his bill has Buckley’s and none. He told ABC he would vote for his bill - which would necessitate crossing the floor but it will not come to that.
His co-sponsor Teresa Gambaro is batting on though, with an opinion piece at SBS on her reasoning for backing the bill.His co-sponsor Teresa Gambaro is batting on though, with an opinion piece at SBS on her reasoning for backing the bill.
After this [2013] election, I surveyed my electorate and found 70 per cent of respondents were in favour of same sex marriage. During the 2013 federal election campaign, many people wanted to know what my conscience vote would be on the issue of same-sex marriage.After this [2013] election, I surveyed my electorate and found 70 per cent of respondents were in favour of same sex marriage. During the 2013 federal election campaign, many people wanted to know what my conscience vote would be on the issue of same-sex marriage.
At that time, the prime minister also gave an undertaking that any vote on same-sex marriage would come before the Coalition Party Room for consideration in this term of Parliament.At that time, the prime minister also gave an undertaking that any vote on same-sex marriage would come before the Coalition Party Room for consideration in this term of Parliament.
I must admit to being reluctant to “come out” on this issue, but I was very disappointed by the shamelessly divisive way in which many people had sought to exploit the issue for political gain during that campaign.I must admit to being reluctant to “come out” on this issue, but I was very disappointed by the shamelessly divisive way in which many people had sought to exploit the issue for political gain during that campaign.
At that time, like now, I also had many people seek to advise me on the basis of what was either a politically expedient or so-called acceptable position to take.At that time, like now, I also had many people seek to advise me on the basis of what was either a politically expedient or so-called acceptable position to take.
My response to that advice now is as it was then - I will not be bullied into one position or another and I believe in representing people properly, not using them for a political purpose.My response to that advice now is as it was then - I will not be bullied into one position or another and I believe in representing people properly, not using them for a political purpose.
Trickiness will not be tolerated.Trickiness will not be tolerated.
8.12am AEST23:128.12am AEST23:12
Good morning,Good morning,
A rainbow sky dawned this morning on the long and winding road into the nation’s capital. Is it a sign?A rainbow sky dawned this morning on the long and winding road into the nation’s capital. Is it a sign?
Tony Abbott awoke to a Fairfax Ipsos poll which has the Coalition’s primary support down to 38%, just 2% above Labor with the Greens steady on 16%. Just to give you an idea of the changing terrain, the Coalition polled 46% at the last election. The numbers leave the two party preferred vote at 54-46 to Labor after a nightmare fortnight for the government, adorned as it was by: Tony Abbott awoke to a Fairfax-Ipsos poll which has the Coalition’s primary support down to 38%, just 2% above Labor with the Greens steady on 16%. Just to give you an idea of the changing terrain, the Coalition polled 46% at the last election. The numbers leave the two-party preferred vote at 54-46 to Labor after a nightmare fortnight for the government, adorned as it was by:
Noted supporter of same sex marriage, Malcolm Turnbull, still leads as preferred Liberal leader and prime minister among all voters on 41%. Julie Bishop is on 23% and Abbott is on just 15%.Noted supporter of same sex marriage, Malcolm Turnbull, still leads as preferred Liberal leader and prime minister among all voters on 41%. Julie Bishop is on 23% and Abbott is on just 15%.
But bear in mind Coalition voters still support Abbott (33%), compared with Turnbull on 25% and Bishop on 23%.But bear in mind Coalition voters still support Abbott (33%), compared with Turnbull on 25% and Bishop on 23%.
Speaking of same sex marriage, that rainbow sky heralds the introduction of the bill, driven by government MP Warren Entsch with colleague Teresa Gambaro and Labor’s Terri Butler. But after the aforementioned marathon debate, the bill will not go to a vote, given the party room’s decision. It will be flicked straight to a committee. Speaking of same-sex marriage, that rainbow sky heralds the introduction of the bill, driven by the government MP Warren Entsch with colleague Teresa Gambaro and Labor’s Terri Butler. But after the aforementioned marathon debate, the bill will not go to a vote, given the party room’s decision. It will be flicked straight to a committee.
There is so much more around this morning, including some interesting commentary, attorney general George Brandis’ helpful remarks about the courts and Adani and the race to claim ownership of a multinational tax crackdown. I promise to explain. There is so much more around this morning, including some interesting commentary, attorney general George Brandis’s helpful remarks about the courts and Adani and the race to claim ownership of a multinational tax crackdown. I promise to explain.
Stick with us for the Monday’s events because after last week, no one is game to make predictions as to how it will end. Have a chat below or with @mpbowers and @gabriellechan on the Twits.Stick with us for the Monday’s events because after last week, no one is game to make predictions as to how it will end. Have a chat below or with @mpbowers and @gabriellechan on the Twits.
Updated at 8.26am AEST