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Comeback Hopes Dim for Sri Lanka’s Ex-President Ahead of Parliamentary Elections Comeback Hopes Dim for Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka’s Ex-President
(about 14 hours later)
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka — At his final campaign rally on Friday, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa did his best to project supreme confidence that he would be swept back into power when Sri Lankans elect a new Parliament on Monday. “Let’s unite and win for the sake of our motherland,” he told thousands of supporters, his voice deepening into a thunderous growl.COLOMBO, Sri Lanka — At his final campaign rally on Friday, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa did his best to project supreme confidence that he would be swept back into power when Sri Lankans elect a new Parliament on Monday. “Let’s unite and win for the sake of our motherland,” he told thousands of supporters, his voice deepening into a thunderous growl.
But all around him, Mr. Rajapaksa’s old power base was being assailed by opponents determined to bury his political hopes once and for all.But all around him, Mr. Rajapaksa’s old power base was being assailed by opponents determined to bury his political hopes once and for all.
Mr. Rajapaksa, a hero to many after he crushed a 26-year Tamil uprising in 2009, needed to look no farther than the men sitting with him on the rally stage. To his left sat two of his top political enforcers who, that very day, were fired from jobs running important political organizations.Mr. Rajapaksa, a hero to many after he crushed a 26-year Tamil uprising in 2009, needed to look no farther than the men sitting with him on the rally stage. To his left sat two of his top political enforcers who, that very day, were fired from jobs running important political organizations.
Farther down were two of his former ministers, one recently released on bail after being charged with corruption and the other the target of a new corruption case. As the rally ended, word arrived of new humiliations: Mr. Rajapaksa’s campaign was being evicted from its office, and there were fresh reports of Rajapaksa political backers quietly cutting deals with his opponents.Farther down were two of his former ministers, one recently released on bail after being charged with corruption and the other the target of a new corruption case. As the rally ended, word arrived of new humiliations: Mr. Rajapaksa’s campaign was being evicted from its office, and there were fresh reports of Rajapaksa political backers quietly cutting deals with his opponents.
The biggest blow, though, was delivered by Maithripala Sirisena, the former Rajapaksa loyalist who helped lead a remarkable political rebellion that resulted in Mr. Rajapaksa’s being voted out of office in January after a tumultuous decade in power.The biggest blow, though, was delivered by Maithripala Sirisena, the former Rajapaksa loyalist who helped lead a remarkable political rebellion that resulted in Mr. Rajapaksa’s being voted out of office in January after a tumultuous decade in power.
Mr. Sirisena, as president of Sri Lanka, appoints the prime minister, the job Mr. Rajapaksa hopes to fill if he and his supporters win enough seats in Parliament. But on Thursday, Mr. Sirisena sent a scathing letter to Mr. Rajapaksa making clear that regardless of the voting results, he would not name Mr. Rajapaksa prime minister. He said Mr. Rajapaksa was unfit for the office because his campaign appealed to “blatant racism” against Muslims and Tamils, Sri Lanka’s two main minority groups.Mr. Sirisena, as president of Sri Lanka, appoints the prime minister, the job Mr. Rajapaksa hopes to fill if he and his supporters win enough seats in Parliament. But on Thursday, Mr. Sirisena sent a scathing letter to Mr. Rajapaksa making clear that regardless of the voting results, he would not name Mr. Rajapaksa prime minister. He said Mr. Rajapaksa was unfit for the office because his campaign appealed to “blatant racism” against Muslims and Tamils, Sri Lanka’s two main minority groups.
“To be inciting communalism at a time when national unity and reconciliation is crucial to overcoming the challenges of the 21st century and building a Sri Lankan identity is a crime against the country,” Mr. Sirisena wrote.“To be inciting communalism at a time when national unity and reconciliation is crucial to overcoming the challenges of the 21st century and building a Sri Lankan identity is a crime against the country,” Mr. Sirisena wrote.
Yet several analysts questioned whether Mr. Sirisena would be able to keep this promise if Mr. Rajapaksa and his supporters won decisive control of Parliament. “It is very difficult to keep Rajapaksa out, I would think,” said Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, who runs an election monitoring group and a policy research organization in Sri Lanka. On the other hand, he noted, every recent poll shows Mr. Rajapaksa trailing, and there is “no demonstrable evidence of any kind of swing or shift to him.”Yet several analysts questioned whether Mr. Sirisena would be able to keep this promise if Mr. Rajapaksa and his supporters won decisive control of Parliament. “It is very difficult to keep Rajapaksa out, I would think,” said Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, who runs an election monitoring group and a policy research organization in Sri Lanka. On the other hand, he noted, every recent poll shows Mr. Rajapaksa trailing, and there is “no demonstrable evidence of any kind of swing or shift to him.”
If anything, Mr. Saravanamuttu said, Mr. Rajapaksa’s comeback attempt appears to have unified and emboldened an often unruly coalition of opponents made up of civil society activists and several political parties. “They see that the only way to keep him out is by staying together and by reminding the country that what was started must be finished.”If anything, Mr. Saravanamuttu said, Mr. Rajapaksa’s comeback attempt appears to have unified and emboldened an often unruly coalition of opponents made up of civil society activists and several political parties. “They see that the only way to keep him out is by staying together and by reminding the country that what was started must be finished.”
What started was a period of profound change. During his decade in power, Mr. Rajapaksa and his relatives amassed ever greater control over the levers of commerce and governmental power in this island nation of 20 million people.What started was a period of profound change. During his decade in power, Mr. Rajapaksa and his relatives amassed ever greater control over the levers of commerce and governmental power in this island nation of 20 million people.
After crushing the Tamil insurgency, Mr. Rajapaksa removed the constitutional limit on two six-year presidential terms. He ousted judges who resisted his efforts to centralize power, and he installed relatives in critical government posts. Journalists and activists faced repression. He courted China by striking a series of lucrative development deals for Chinese contractors to build highways, ports and other large infrastructure projects.After crushing the Tamil insurgency, Mr. Rajapaksa removed the constitutional limit on two six-year presidential terms. He ousted judges who resisted his efforts to centralize power, and he installed relatives in critical government posts. Journalists and activists faced repression. He courted China by striking a series of lucrative development deals for Chinese contractors to build highways, ports and other large infrastructure projects.
Under Mr. Sirisena, the government has tried to repair relations with the Tamils by, for example, releasing some of the land that was seized from them by the military. Websites that criticized the government have been unblocked. Surveillance has been curtailed. Judicial independence has been reinforced. Term limits have been reimposed.Under Mr. Sirisena, the government has tried to repair relations with the Tamils by, for example, releasing some of the land that was seized from them by the military. Websites that criticized the government have been unblocked. Surveillance has been curtailed. Judicial independence has been reinforced. Term limits have been reimposed.
Several of the deals with China have been canceled or paused for closer review. Investigations have begun into persistent allegations that Mr. Rajapaksa and his family used their offices to plunder the nation.Several of the deals with China have been canceled or paused for closer review. Investigations have begun into persistent allegations that Mr. Rajapaksa and his family used their offices to plunder the nation.
“Parliamentary elections offer voters the chance to renew the mandate for change they gave Sirisena,” the International Crisis Group said in a recent report.“Parliamentary elections offer voters the chance to renew the mandate for change they gave Sirisena,” the International Crisis Group said in a recent report.
In an interview at his official residence, Sri Lanka’s prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, praised Mr. Sirisena for taking steps last week to foreclose the possibility of a Rajapaksa comeback. “Some people, some of them say that he should have put his foot down earlier,” Mr. Wickremesinghe said.In an interview at his official residence, Sri Lanka’s prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, praised Mr. Sirisena for taking steps last week to foreclose the possibility of a Rajapaksa comeback. “Some people, some of them say that he should have put his foot down earlier,” Mr. Wickremesinghe said.
Yet he also insisted that Mr. Rajapaksa’s political obituary could have been written on Jan. 8, the day he was voted out of office. Mr. Rajapaksa’s political support, he argued, was inextricably linked to his control of the government. “He ran on the government machinery, government patronage,” Mr. Wickremesinghe said. When he was voted out, “he lost the machinery.”Yet he also insisted that Mr. Rajapaksa’s political obituary could have been written on Jan. 8, the day he was voted out of office. Mr. Rajapaksa’s political support, he argued, was inextricably linked to his control of the government. “He ran on the government machinery, government patronage,” Mr. Wickremesinghe said. When he was voted out, “he lost the machinery.”
The signs of Mr. Rajapaksa’s diminished stature were easy to spot at his final official rally on Friday evening in Kurunegala, a city about 60 miles northwest of Colombo, Sri Lanka’s capital.The signs of Mr. Rajapaksa’s diminished stature were easy to spot at his final official rally on Friday evening in Kurunegala, a city about 60 miles northwest of Colombo, Sri Lanka’s capital.
When he was in power, Mr. Rajapaksa arrived at his campaign rallies in grand style. He would typically land near the rally site in a helicopter, and then a long parade of gleaming BMWs would convey his entourage to the stage. This time, he pulled up in a single, dusty Mercedes-Benz.When he was in power, Mr. Rajapaksa arrived at his campaign rallies in grand style. He would typically land near the rally site in a helicopter, and then a long parade of gleaming BMWs would convey his entourage to the stage. This time, he pulled up in a single, dusty Mercedes-Benz.
His campaigns once used the full resources of the state bureaucracy and security apparatus to choreograph his rallies, which were legendary for their P.T. Barnum-esque production values.His campaigns once used the full resources of the state bureaucracy and security apparatus to choreograph his rallies, which were legendary for their P.T. Barnum-esque production values.
On Friday, his rally had an amateur-hour flavor. Fireworks went off prematurely. Warm-up acts droned on. The crowd, though, was made up of his most fervent supporters, men and women of all ages who in interviews repeatedly praised him for defeating the Tamil insurgency. Anoma Gunesekera could not stop smiling at the thought of seeing Mr. Rajapaksa in the flesh.On Friday, his rally had an amateur-hour flavor. Fireworks went off prematurely. Warm-up acts droned on. The crowd, though, was made up of his most fervent supporters, men and women of all ages who in interviews repeatedly praised him for defeating the Tamil insurgency. Anoma Gunesekera could not stop smiling at the thought of seeing Mr. Rajapaksa in the flesh.
“We love him,” she said. “He won our country back for us.” When asked about recent polls that show Mr. Rajapaksa losing, she began weeping.“We love him,” she said. “He won our country back for us.” When asked about recent polls that show Mr. Rajapaksa losing, she began weeping.