Ted Cruz launches Guam ground game as consultant is sent to tiny island

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/17/ted-cruz-guam-ground-game

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It’s not unusual for presidential campaigns to deploy staffers across the country in the year before voting begins. But Republican candidate Ted Cruz has gone one step further and sent an operative across the Pacific Ocean.

The Cruz campaign has dispatched political consultant Dennis Lennox to Guam to organize in advance of that island’s GOP caucuses. The decision to send Lennox, a former county drain commissioner in his native Michigan, to Guam represents the most zealous outreach of any presidential campaign to the US island territory located nearly 8,000 miles from Washington DC.

David Sablan, a Republican National Committee member from Guam, said last week that Cruz had dispatched an operative to the island and said his was one of only three presidential campaigns that had reached out to Guam Republicans. The other two campaigns were those of former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Wisconsin governor Scott Walker. Sablan said that he had met personally with Bush, talked with him about the campaign and continued to stay “in touch with people”. In addition, he mentioned that the Walker campaign was “making some overtures” and doing outreach to get a sense of the island territory’s delegate selection plan. However, the Cruz campaign, which did not respond to a request for comment, was the only one to actually have a presence on the ground in Guam.

While Guam only has nine delegates out of the total of 2,470 who will attend the Republican convention in Cleveland in July 2016, it is far more significant than its size would indicate under RNC rules. Under rules passed in 2012, any Republican candidate needs the support of a majority of delegates from eight states to have his name placed into nomination. Under RNC rules, a territory is considered a state and winning Guam makes it that much easier for a candidate to tally the eight states necessary if there ends up being a floor fight in Cleveland next year. A floor fight is where the identity of the nominee has not been determined prior to the convention and the primary ends with an actual vote with consequences on the convention floor.

Sablan said the island lends itself to retail campaigning. “Guam is maybe a third the size of Rhode Island,” he said. “It is very easy to get around and talk to a few people.” Sablan noted that it was very probable that, at the convention, delegates “go to one candidate” right away and lock up one of the eight states needed at the RNC.

In 2012, Mitt Romney won all nine of Guam’s delegates after being backed by 207 of the 216 delegates to Guam’s territorial Republican convention.

All this effort in Guam may be for naught. There has not been a true floor flight at a Republican convention since 1976. But, with 17 candidates in the running for the GOP nomination, it is possible this may be the year that that pattern changes. And, if so, it is clear which campaigns are already playing the long game.