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| New Elections in Turkey Almost Certain as Threats From ISIS and Kurds Grow | New Elections in Turkey Almost Certain as Threats From ISIS and Kurds Grow |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| ISTANBUL — Prospects for a period of instability in Turkey increased on Tuesday after attempts by the dominant party to form a new coalition government officially ended in failure. | |
| The development helped create the basis for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to call for a new election, which would mean the installation of a temporary government just as Turkey is facing new threats from Islamic State militants in neighboring Syria and a re-energized Kurdish insurgency at home. An Islamic State video released on Monday called for Turkish Muslims to revolt against the president. | The development helped create the basis for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to call for a new election, which would mean the installation of a temporary government just as Turkey is facing new threats from Islamic State militants in neighboring Syria and a re-energized Kurdish insurgency at home. An Islamic State video released on Monday called for Turkish Muslims to revolt against the president. |
| Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, which has shaped Turkish politics for more than a decade, was stunned in a June 7 election, losing a parliamentary majority partly because of gains by the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party. | Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, which has shaped Turkish politics for more than a decade, was stunned in a June 7 election, losing a parliamentary majority partly because of gains by the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party. |
| Lengthy negotiations by Mr. Erdogan’s prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, ended without an agreement for a coalition, first with the largest opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, then with a smaller, far-right nationalist party. | Lengthy negotiations by Mr. Erdogan’s prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, ended without an agreement for a coalition, first with the largest opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, then with a smaller, far-right nationalist party. |
| Mr. Erdogan could now theoretically ask the Republican People’s Party to take over the efforts to form a coalition government, but that outcome is highly unlikely before an Aug. 23 deadline set by the Constitution. | Mr. Erdogan could now theoretically ask the Republican People’s Party to take over the efforts to form a coalition government, but that outcome is highly unlikely before an Aug. 23 deadline set by the Constitution. |
| Since his party’s June defeat, Mr. Erdogan’s critics have accused him of taking actions — including a new crackdown on Kurdish militants — to sabotage the formation of a coalition and to justify a call for new elections so that he could try to regain a parliamentary majority. | Since his party’s June defeat, Mr. Erdogan’s critics have accused him of taking actions — including a new crackdown on Kurdish militants — to sabotage the formation of a coalition and to justify a call for new elections so that he could try to regain a parliamentary majority. |
| If no government is formed by Aug. 23, Mr. Davutoglu must dissolve his cabinet, and an “election government” composed of all parties in Parliament would carry the country toward the vote. | If no government is formed by Aug. 23, Mr. Davutoglu must dissolve his cabinet, and an “election government” composed of all parties in Parliament would carry the country toward the vote. |
| Such a change could complicate, among other things, a recent decision to cooperate more closely with the American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. | |
| Mr. Erdogan’s political adversaries say he wants a parliamentary majority to help him achieve his ambitions of changing the Constitution to establish an executive presidency, which would have more power. | Mr. Erdogan’s political adversaries say he wants a parliamentary majority to help him achieve his ambitions of changing the Constitution to establish an executive presidency, which would have more power. |
| Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s pre-eminent politician and former prime minister, has said that Turkey’s Constitution is outdated and that he should have more than ceremonial functions as president. | Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s pre-eminent politician and former prime minister, has said that Turkey’s Constitution is outdated and that he should have more than ceremonial functions as president. |
| “Whether it is accepted or not, Turkey’s system of government has changed,” he said in a speech on Friday. “What needs to be done now is to clarify and confirm the legal framework of this de facto situation with a new Constitution.” | “Whether it is accepted or not, Turkey’s system of government has changed,” he said in a speech on Friday. “What needs to be done now is to clarify and confirm the legal framework of this de facto situation with a new Constitution.” |
| The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, which opposes such a change, has proposed a referendum to determine whether the Turkish public wants the president’s constitutional powers strengthened. | The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, which opposes such a change, has proposed a referendum to determine whether the Turkish public wants the president’s constitutional powers strengthened. |
| “The state regime cannot be changed with a fait accompli,” Selahattin Demirtas, the party’s co-chairman, told reporters on Tuesday. | “The state regime cannot be changed with a fait accompli,” Selahattin Demirtas, the party’s co-chairman, told reporters on Tuesday. |
| The increased political and military tensions have raised uncertainty in the country. The Turkish lira, a barometer of stability, has weakened sharply. | The increased political and military tensions have raised uncertainty in the country. The Turkish lira, a barometer of stability, has weakened sharply. |
| Worries created by the failure of negotiations for a political coalition were compounded by the Islamic State’s video threat aimed at Mr. Erdogan and his cohorts. | Worries created by the failure of negotiations for a political coalition were compounded by the Islamic State’s video threat aimed at Mr. Erdogan and his cohorts. |
| In its first Turkish-language video, distributed via social media, the Islamic State denounced Mr. Erdogan’s collaboration with the United States and other Western powers to combat the militant group. | In its first Turkish-language video, distributed via social media, the Islamic State denounced Mr. Erdogan’s collaboration with the United States and other Western powers to combat the militant group. |
| An Islamic State fighter made a direct plea to Muslims in Turkey, urging them to rise up against their “infidel” president and to capture Istanbul, the country’s largest city, from those who are cooperating with the West. | An Islamic State fighter made a direct plea to Muslims in Turkey, urging them to rise up against their “infidel” president and to capture Istanbul, the country’s largest city, from those who are cooperating with the West. |
| The release of the seven-minute video came a few weeks after Mr. Erdogan had expanded Turkey’s commitment to help the American-led military effort to strike Islamic State targets in Syria. The Turks are permitting the use of two air bases for American bombing missions, and they have started bombing in Syria. | The release of the seven-minute video came a few weeks after Mr. Erdogan had expanded Turkey’s commitment to help the American-led military effort to strike Islamic State targets in Syria. The Turks are permitting the use of two air bases for American bombing missions, and they have started bombing in Syria. |
| “O people of Turkey, you must stand and fight those crusaders, atheists and tyrants who have deceived you and made you slaves to the crusaders,” an unidentified, gray-bearded man flanked by two armed militants says in the video. “You must fight them before it is too late.” | “O people of Turkey, you must stand and fight those crusaders, atheists and tyrants who have deceived you and made you slaves to the crusaders,” an unidentified, gray-bearded man flanked by two armed militants says in the video. “You must fight them before it is too late.” |
| Until recently, Turkey, a NATO member and longtime American ally, had been criticized for not taking a more active role against the Islamic State. Its reluctance partly reflected fear of retaliation within Turkey and from across its 500-mile border with Syria, where the militants have made significant gains. | Until recently, Turkey, a NATO member and longtime American ally, had been criticized for not taking a more active role against the Islamic State. Its reluctance partly reflected fear of retaliation within Turkey and from across its 500-mile border with Syria, where the militants have made significant gains. |
| Mr. Erdogan’s government decided to move more forcefully against the Islamic State last month after a suicide bombing in the southeastern district of Suruc that killed at least 34 people. A Turkish member of the militant group was suspected of carrying out that assault. | Mr. Erdogan’s government decided to move more forcefully against the Islamic State last month after a suicide bombing in the southeastern district of Suruc that killed at least 34 people. A Turkish member of the militant group was suspected of carrying out that assault. |
| Although the speaker in the video did not make any specific threats against Turkey, the message to Turks was to reject democracy and their government and instead support the Islamic State’s caliphate “wherever you are and however you can.” | Although the speaker in the video did not make any specific threats against Turkey, the message to Turks was to reject democracy and their government and instead support the Islamic State’s caliphate “wherever you are and however you can.” |
| The message and its tone match the themes of the group’s Turkish-language magazine, which published its first issue, titled “The Conquest of Istanbul,” in June and called on Turks to take back Istanbul from the “apostates,” an apparent reference to the country’s political leaders. | The message and its tone match the themes of the group’s Turkish-language magazine, which published its first issue, titled “The Conquest of Istanbul,” in June and called on Turks to take back Istanbul from the “apostates,” an apparent reference to the country’s political leaders. |
| The speaker in the video echoed that message, referring to it as a mandate from the group’s leader. “Altogether and under the orders of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,” he said, “let’s conquer Istanbul, which the traitor Erdogan works day and night to hand over to crusaders.” |