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| German Vote on Bailout Carries Risks for Merkel | German Vote on Bailout Carries Risks for Merkel |
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| BERLIN — Faced with a revolt among her own deputies over approval of a new 86-billion-euro bailout for Greece, Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government on Tuesday met with lawmakers to try to contain the political damage from the conservative rebellion. | BERLIN — Faced with a revolt among her own deputies over approval of a new 86-billion-euro bailout for Greece, Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government on Tuesday met with lawmakers to try to contain the political damage from the conservative rebellion. |
| On the eve of a parliamentary vote on the Greek deal, Ms. Merkel’s government was also grappling with Europe’s growing migrant crisis, which she characterized on Sunday as a bigger challenge for Europe than the Greek debt crisis. New estimates are to be issued Wednesday, but a report in a business daily and comments from politicians suggested that Germany would see up to 800,000 people seeking asylum this year. | On the eve of a parliamentary vote on the Greek deal, Ms. Merkel’s government was also grappling with Europe’s growing migrant crisis, which she characterized on Sunday as a bigger challenge for Europe than the Greek debt crisis. New estimates are to be issued Wednesday, but a report in a business daily and comments from politicians suggested that Germany would see up to 800,000 people seeking asylum this year. |
| The political revolt began to take shape last month, when 65 of the 311 deputies in Ms. Merkel’s conservative bloc refused to vote for even opening negotiations on the new package for Greece. Since Friday, when European finance ministers approved the measures, speculation has run rife in Berlin over whether the rebel ranks will swell when Parliament votes on the third and latest bailout on Wednesday. | The political revolt began to take shape last month, when 65 of the 311 deputies in Ms. Merkel’s conservative bloc refused to vote for even opening negotiations on the new package for Greece. Since Friday, when European finance ministers approved the measures, speculation has run rife in Berlin over whether the rebel ranks will swell when Parliament votes on the third and latest bailout on Wednesday. |
| It appeared late Tuesday that Ms. Merkel was not in danger of seeing a heightened revolt. In a test ballot on the latest bailout package, Reuters reported, citing participants, that 56 conservative lawmakers voted against and four abstained. That was fewer than the 60 votes against and five abstentions in the July 17 vote on opening talks with Athens on the new bailout, equivalent to about $95 billion. | |
| If the number of rebels grows it would have no immediate consequence, but would deal Ms. Merkel one of her biggest blows in almost 10 years in power. It would also further tarnish Germany’s leadership role in Europe. | |
| Approval for the Greek package is not in doubt, for Ms. Merkel can rely on the votes of her Social Democratic partners in the coalition government and on opposition Green deputies for the measure to pass the 631-seat Bundestag. | Approval for the Greek package is not in doubt, for Ms. Merkel can rely on the votes of her Social Democratic partners in the coalition government and on opposition Green deputies for the measure to pass the 631-seat Bundestag. |
| “The greatest interest is not whether the Greek package passes, but what are the political costs for the chancellor?” said Theocharis N. Grigoriadis, a lecturer on the politics of Greece and Eastern Europe at the Free University in Berlin. | “The greatest interest is not whether the Greek package passes, but what are the political costs for the chancellor?” said Theocharis N. Grigoriadis, a lecturer on the politics of Greece and Eastern Europe at the Free University in Berlin. |
| Mr. Grigoriadis noted that other European parliaments, including in Austria and Spain on Tuesday, had already approved the package and that it would go against the pro-European stance of Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats to block the Greek package now. | Mr. Grigoriadis noted that other European parliaments, including in Austria and Spain on Tuesday, had already approved the package and that it would go against the pro-European stance of Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats to block the Greek package now. |
| “They are taking a certain risk if they adopt an anti-European attitude,” he said of the potential rebels. | “They are taking a certain risk if they adopt an anti-European attitude,” he said of the potential rebels. |
| The German newspaper Bild, which in recent months has campaigned steadily against Ms. Merkel and what it sees as her indecisiveness, speculated over the weekend that as many as 100 or even 120 deputies could turn against her. Other news organizations have published much more cautious estimates. | The German newspaper Bild, which in recent months has campaigned steadily against Ms. Merkel and what it sees as her indecisiveness, speculated over the weekend that as many as 100 or even 120 deputies could turn against her. Other news organizations have published much more cautious estimates. |
| Ms. Merkel’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who talked openly of a possible Greek exit from the euro currency before the third bailout was agreed, has spoken up strongly in favor of a yes vote on Wednesday. Unusually, the finance minister, a political veteran who is Parliament’s longest serving member, will present the government’s case before the vote. | Ms. Merkel’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who talked openly of a possible Greek exit from the euro currency before the third bailout was agreed, has spoken up strongly in favor of a yes vote on Wednesday. Unusually, the finance minister, a political veteran who is Parliament’s longest serving member, will present the government’s case before the vote. |
| Mr. Schäuble is widely admired in the conservative party and his personal commitment to the new Greek package could sway potential rebels to vote for it. | Mr. Schäuble is widely admired in the conservative party and his personal commitment to the new Greek package could sway potential rebels to vote for it. |
| In a 20-minute appearance on German television on Monday evening, Mr. Schäuble brushed aside talk of rifts in Europe, emphasizing instead what Berlin is depicting as the newfound willingness in Athens for a serious overhaul of the Greek economy. | In a 20-minute appearance on German television on Monday evening, Mr. Schäuble brushed aside talk of rifts in Europe, emphasizing instead what Berlin is depicting as the newfound willingness in Athens for a serious overhaul of the Greek economy. |
| In Athens itself, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who has pushed through changes he was elected in January to oppose, indicated that he might maneuver to postpone any vote of confidence. Political commentators have suggested he would lose any such vote, which would force early elections. | In Athens itself, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who has pushed through changes he was elected in January to oppose, indicated that he might maneuver to postpone any vote of confidence. Political commentators have suggested he would lose any such vote, which would force early elections. |
| An early Greek election could rattle the new confidence that European leaders say they have that the Greek government will continue to approve and put in place economic overhauls, including in sensitive areas like pensions. | An early Greek election could rattle the new confidence that European leaders say they have that the Greek government will continue to approve and put in place economic overhauls, including in sensitive areas like pensions. |
| The International Monetary Fund has yet to join the latest rescue, delaying a decision until a meeting of its board in October. Both Ms. Merkel and Mr. Schäuble said that Christine Lagarde, managing director of the fund, would recommend joining the bailout. | The International Monetary Fund has yet to join the latest rescue, delaying a decision until a meeting of its board in October. Both Ms. Merkel and Mr. Schäuble said that Christine Lagarde, managing director of the fund, would recommend joining the bailout. |
| Mr. Schäuble said Monday night that participation by the fund was “indispensable.” | Mr. Schäuble said Monday night that participation by the fund was “indispensable.” |
| Ms. Merkel seems to have been already turning to Europe’s other major crisis, the steady flow of migrants seeking safety and economic opportunity on the Continent. Germany is taking in the largest numbers of refugees of any European nation, and Ms. Merkel on Sunday noted the crisis “will occupy us much, much longer than Greece and the stability of the euro.” | Ms. Merkel seems to have been already turning to Europe’s other major crisis, the steady flow of migrants seeking safety and economic opportunity on the Continent. Germany is taking in the largest numbers of refugees of any European nation, and Ms. Merkel on Sunday noted the crisis “will occupy us much, much longer than Greece and the stability of the euro.” |
| Thomas Oppermann, a leader of the Social Democrats, told reporters on Tuesday that he expected the number of people seeking asylum to total 700,000 to 800,000 this year. Official figures are to be made public on Wednesday, hours after the Greek vote. | Thomas Oppermann, a leader of the Social Democrats, told reporters on Tuesday that he expected the number of people seeking asylum to total 700,000 to 800,000 this year. Official figures are to be made public on Wednesday, hours after the Greek vote. |