Bangkok bombing: Where is the investigation heading?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33999401

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The statement by the Thai government that they believe there are no links between Monday night's bomb attack and international terrorism is an important development in a hitherto muddled investigation.

Col Winthai Suvaree, an official spokesman for the ruling military junta, said Thai security agencies had been co-operating with the agencies of allied countries, and from those consultations had come to the preliminary conclusion that the bombing was unlikely to be linked to international terrorism.

He also stated that Chinese tourists, who make up a high proportion of foreigners visiting the shrine, were not the target, which appears to rule out any connection with Uighur militants. Thailand controversially deported a large group of Uighur asylum-seekers to China last month.

The Thais may have asked for information from China, and agencies in neighbouring south-east Asian countries, as well from the United States, which is a treaty ally.

Thailand and the United States have a long history of intelligence collaboration, and strong collaborations between their police forces. Relations have been strained following last year's military coup, and the only official US statement so far has been that they have not been asked for assistance by Thailand.

But it is very likely the Thais will have asked for information from US intelligence agencies about well-known international groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State.

Conflicting statements

If none of these countries has intelligence suggesting the involvement of an established militant group, that leaves two uncomfortable possibilities: one, that the bombing was the work of a new or little-known overseas group or, two, that it was the work of a Thai group.

Either would be a shocking development. Outside the four southern Malay provinces, where a violent insurgency has killed more than 6,000 people over the past decade, an attack on this scale has never occurred in Thailand.

Much depends on how efficiently the Thai authorities conduct their investigation, and so far their performance has not been encouraging.

There have been conflicting and confusing statements from different officials working for different agencies.

The crime scene was not sealed off for several hours after the explosion. The area around the shrine has now been cleaned up with surprising speed, the bomb crater cemented over, rather than leaving it for further forensic work.

Despite the availability of multiple CCTV cameras around the shrine, the police are making slow progress in identifying the names and nationalities of the suspects seen on video at the shrine just before the blast.

It is not clear how systematically they have interviewed all those who may have come into contact with these suspects, or how thoroughly they are using data like immigration records. They still do no know whether the suspects are in the country or not.

The police chief has said he believes they are looking for a group of 10 people or more, but has not said what the evidence is for this number.

In previous criminal investigations that have attracted international attention, notably the murder of two British tourists on the island of Koh Tao last September, the Thai police have seemed incompetent and disorganised. This time, given the seriousness of the attack, they may do better.

It is still too early to say.